BRAZIL SERIE C
26.07.2026 21:30
Estadio Francisco Stedile
Referee: M. Neves
Caxias
Match Timeline
Botafogo PB
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
9'
Patric Calmon
Botafogo PB
🟨
31'
Roberto
Caxias
41'
Breno Santos
Caxias
🟨
45+3'
Breno Santos
Caxias
🔄
46'
Patric Calmon ↔ Bull
Botafogo PB
🔄
60'
Kayon ↔ Giovanni
Botafogo PB
🔄
60'
Jhonata Varela ↔ Lucas Candido
Botafogo PB
🔄
61'
Roberto ↔ Victor Sa
Caxias
🔄
61'
Calyson ↔ Dentinho
Caxias
🔄
61'
Joao Lucas ↔ Matheus Nunes
Caxias
🔄
73'
Diogo Mateus ↔ Leo Pereira
Botafogo PB
🟨
74'
Saimon
Botafogo PB
🔄
74'
Breno Santos ↔ Grigor
Caxias
78'
Ianson
Botafogo PB
81'
R. Bastos
Botafogo PB
🔄
82'
Marcelo Freitas ↔ Gaspar
Caxias
🔄
83'
Dudu Hatamoto ↔ Thallyson
Botafogo PB
🟨
90+7'
R. Bastos
Botafogo PB

Caxias vs Botafogo PB Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 56.4%
Odds -
BTTS
No
Probability 55%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 80.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
56.4%
-
BTTS No
55%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
80.5%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 1-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Caxias Win 56.4%
Draw 10.5%
Botafogo PB Win 33%
Expected Goals (xG)
Caxias0.99
Botafogo PB1.17
Recent Form (Last 5)
Caxias Caxias
WWDLW
13 GF / 10 GA
Botafogo PB Botafogo PB
WLDWL
22 GF / 16 GA
Key Stats
0.93
Average Goals Scored
1.47
0.71
Average Goals Conceded
1.07
7
BTTS Yes
7
4
Over 2.5
6
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Caxias Caxias 14 matches
Botafogo PB Botafogo PB 15 matches
Caxias Statistic Botafogo PB
5 Wins 8
6 Draws 1
3 Losses 6
13 Goals For 22
10 Goals Against 16
0.93 Avg Goals Scored 1.47
0.71 Avg Goals Conceded 1.07
7 BTTS Yes 7
8 Over 1.5 12
4 Over 2.5 6
0 Over 3.5 3
6 Clean Sheets 6
4 Failed To Score 2
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Botafogo PB look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Botafogo PB having the stronger overall control. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Botafogo PB.

Caxias Analysis

Caxias sit 9 with 21 points after 14 league matches. Their overall return of 5 wins, 6 draws, and 3 losses with goals at 13:10 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by their main attacking players, while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, they have returned 4 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses, a split that suggests a very strong split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Botafogo PB Analysis

From their first 14 matches, Botafogo PB have collected 22 points and now occupy 6 place in the table. Their overall return of 7 wins, 1 draws, and 6 losses with goals at 19:15 reflects very strong form and are on a winning streak. Their attacking weight is carried by their main attacking players, while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, their split return of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 3 head-to-head meetings, Caxias won 1 times, Botafogo PB won 1 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 4:4 from Caxias's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 2.67 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (89.5%)
H2H summary: Caxias wins 1, draws 1, Botafogo PB wins 1

Standings

First stage
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 10 3 6 28:19 9 33
L L L W W
2 19 9 5 5 28:22 6 32
D W D D W
3 19 8 6 5 22:15 7 30
W D W L W
4 19 8 6 5 32:30 2 30
W L W W W
5 19 8 6 5 22:20 2 30
W L W W W
6 19 8 6 5 22:20 2 30
D D D D L
7 19 9 2 8 26:27 -1 29
L L L W L
8 19 8 5 6 20:15 5 29
W W D W L
9 19 8 5 6 27:24 3 29
D W D W W
10 19 7 7 5 34:24 10 28
D L D L W
11 19 7 7 5 19:22 -3 28
W D W D W
12 19 7 6 6 19:18 1 27
L W W W D
13 19 7 5 7 21:23 -2 26
D D D W W
14 19 6 7 6 17:16 1 25
D L L W L
15 19 6 4 9 18:21 -3 22
L L L W L
16 19 6 3 10 13:25 -12 21
L L W L L
17 19 5 6 8 21:21 0 21
W L W L L
18 19 5 4 10 17:22 -5 19
D W L W W
19 19 4 5 10 14:27 -13 17
L L L L D
20 19 3 4 12 11:20 -9 13
L L D L D
Play-offs
Relegation