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21.11.2026 20:00
ATCO Field

Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 74.6%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
74.6%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
82.5%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
83.9%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Cavalry FC Win 74.6%
Draw 15.7%
Atlético Ottawa Win 9.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Cavalry FC1.92
Atlético Ottawa1.21
Recent Form (Last 5)
Cavalry FC Cavalry FC
W L W W D
10 GF / 6 GA
Atlético Ottawa Atlético Ottawa
W D L L W
9 GF / 8 GA
Key Stats
2.03
Average Goals Scored
1.47
0.83
Average Goals Conceded
1.75
16
BTTS Yes
20
16
Over 2.5
22
5.1
Shots on Goal
3.78

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Cavalry FC Cavalry FC 30 matches
Atlético Ottawa Atlético Ottawa 32 matches
Cavalry FC Statistic Atlético Ottawa
19 Wins 14
6 Draws 5
5 Losses 13
61 Goals For 47
25 Goals Against 56
2.03 Avg Goals Scored 1.47
0.83 Avg Goals Conceded 1.75
16 BTTS Yes 20
23 Over 1.5 28
16 Over 2.5 22
10 Over 3.5 13
12 Clean Sheets 6
3 Failed To Score 7
5.1 Shots On Goal 3.78
14.23 Total Shots 9.69
5.07 Corners 3.97
48.4% Ball Possession 53.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

In knockout conditions, this fixture pairs Cavalry FC's more proactive style and Atlético Ottawa's more cautious structure, which should make the margins especially important. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Atlético Ottawa have the edge after taking the first leg 3-2, leaving Cavalry FC needing to respond to a 1-goal deficit. In the previous meeting, Atlético Ottawa controlled more possession in the first leg (63% against 37%). Atlético Ottawa carried the greater threat on target, finishing with 7 shots on goal compared to 5. Atlético Ottawa circulated the ball more often, making 492 passes to 283 and completing 424. Cavalry FC arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 60 points compared to Atlético Ottawa in 3 on 43, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Atlético Ottawa.

Cavalry FC Analysis

Ahead of this knockout test, Cavalry FC arrive from a league campaign that has them 1 with 60 points after 28 matches. Their record of 18 wins, 6 draws, and 4 defeats with goals at 58:23 reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking weight falls on A. Musse (7 goals), T. Warschewski (4 goals), C. Elva (3 goals), with creative support from A. Musse (2 assists), T. Warschewski (2 assists), C. Elva (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, they have managed 11 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses, which supports a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In tactical terms they still look like a side built around balanced attacking football.

Atlético Ottawa Analysis

Atlético Ottawa come into this tie placed 3 in their league with 43 points from 28 matches. With 13 wins, 4 draws, and 11 losses plus a goal ratio of 42:45, they bring mixed form over their recent run into this tie. Going forward they rely on N. Fleuriau Chateau (5 goals), B. Tabla (3 goals), K. Habibullah (2 goals), with creative support from N. Fleuriau Chateau (1 assists), K. Habibullah (1 assists), Joaquim Coulanges (1 assists), while defensively they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, their split of 5 wins, 1 draws, and 8 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically they continue to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (90.3%)
Predicted formations: Cavalry FC 4-2-3-1 / Atlético Ottawa 4-2-3-1

Standings

Canadian Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 28 18 6 4 58:23 35 60
W L W W D
2 28 17 7 4 49:22 27 58
L D D W W
3 28 13 4 11 42:45 -3 43
W D L L W
4 28 11 5 12 47:50 -3 38
L W W W D
5 28 10 7 11 39:37 2 37
L W D D D
6 28 7 9 12 42:65 -23 30
W L L L W
7 28 7 7 14 44:50 -6 28
L L D D L
8 28 2 9 17 33:62 -29 15
D L L L L