ITALY SERIE B
--.--.---- --:--
Stadio Nicola Ceravolo
Referee: M. Piccinini
Catanzaro
Match Timeline
Spezia
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
24'
J. Petriccione · Assist: C. Favasuli
Catanzaro
VAR
26'
Jacopo Petriccione
Catanzaro
44'
M. Valoti · Assist: G. Lapadula
Spezia
🟨
45'
Giuseppe Di Serio
Spezia
63'
Fellipe Jack · Assist: C. Favasuli
Catanzaro
🟨
66'
Jacopo Petriccione
Catanzaro
🔄
67'
G. Di Serio ↔ L. Skjellerup
Spezia
🔄
67'
A. Nagy ↔ A. Romano
Spezia
🔄
71'
J. Petriccione ↔ F. Rispoli
Catanzaro
🟨
75'
Petko Hristov
Spezia
🔄
77'
Fellipe Jack ↔ R. Frosinini
Catanzaro
🔄
78'
S. Pontisso ↔ M. Pompetti
Catanzaro
🔄
78'
M. Liberali ↔ P. Nuamah
Catanzaro
🔄
78'
P. Beruatto ↔ E. Adamo
Spezia
78'
F. Pittarello · Assist: T. Cassandro
Catanzaro
🟨
80'
Mattia Valoti
Spezia
82'
F. Pittarello · Assist: F. Di Francesco
Catanzaro
🔄
87'
C. Comotto ↔ A. Bellemo
Spezia
🔄
87'
L. Sernicola ↔ L. Vignali
Spezia
🔄
89'
F. Di Francesco ↔ G. Esteves
Catanzaro
90'
G. Lapadula
Spezia

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 66.4%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 86.7%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 54.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
66.4%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
86.7%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
54.7%
-
Probability Distribution
Catanzaro Win 66.4%
Draw 5.2%
Spezia Win 28.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Catanzaro1.5
Spezia1.15
Recent Form (Last 5)
Catanzaro Catanzaro
WWDLW
54 GF / 44 GA
Spezia Spezia
WLDWL
41 GF / 55 GA
Key Stats
1.5
Average Goals Scored
1.11
1.22
Average Goals Conceded
1.49
23
BTTS Yes
21
18
Over 2.5
16
4.19
Shots on Goal
4.11

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Catanzaro Catanzaro 36 matches
Spezia Spezia 37 matches
Catanzaro Statistic Spezia
14 Wins 8
14 Draws 11
8 Losses 18
54 Goals For 41
44 Goals Against 55
1.5 Avg Goals Scored 1.11
1.22 Avg Goals Conceded 1.49
23 BTTS Yes 21
28 Over 1.5 28
18 Over 2.5 16
13 Over 3.5 10
9 Clean Sheets 6
7 Failed To Score 12
4.19 Shots On Goal 4.11
12.67 Total Shots 11.51
3.94 Corners 4.86
53.1% Ball Possession 49.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Catanzaro's more proactive style and Spezia's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Catanzaro arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 5 with 56 points compared to Spezia in 19 on 33, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Spezia. Spezia arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Catanzaro expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Spezia in 3-5-1-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Spezia having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Catanzaro Analysis

Placed 5 with 56 points from 35 outings, Catanzaro continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Their overall return of 14 wins, 14 draws, and 7 losses with goals at 51:40 reflects poor form and have been stuck in a sequence of draws. Their attacking weight is carried by P. Iemmello (10 goals), Filippo Pittarello (8 goals), Alphadjo Cissè (6 goals), with creative support from P. Iemmello (9 assists), Filippo Pittarello (6 assists), S. Pontisso (6 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. At home, their split return of 8 wins, 7 draws, and 1 losses fits a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Spezia Analysis

Spezia sit 19 with 33 points after 35 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 8 wins, 9 draws, and 18 defeats, and the 32:51 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on G. Artistico (11 goals), G. Aurelio (6 goals), G. Lapadula (4 goals), with creative support from P. Beruatto (4 assists), G. Aurelio (3 assists), Mattia Valoti (3 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, the split record of 3 wins, 4 draws, and 10 losses points to a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 8 head-to-head meetings, Catanzaro won 3 times, Spezia won 3 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 10:8 from Catanzaro's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 2.25 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.8%)
Predicted formations: Catanzaro 3-4-2-1 / Spezia 3-5-1-1
H2H summary: Catanzaro wins 3, draws 2, Spezia wins 3
Stats
Catanzaro Catanzaro
Spezia Spezia
Shots on Goal
8
Shots on Goal
4
Shots off Goal
1
Shots off Goal
6
Blocked Shots
5
Blocked Shots
2
9 Corner Kicks 2
10 Fouls 20
1 Offsides 1
64% Ball Possession 36%
14 Total Shots 12
8 Shots on Goal 4
1 Shots off Goal 6
5 Blocked Shots 2
10 Shots insidebox 8
4 Shots outsidebox 4
2 Goalkeeper Saves 4
410 Total passes 225
349 Passes accurate 153
1.74 expected_goals 2.06
🟨 1 Yellow Cards 3 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Catanzaro
Formation
Spezia
M. Pigliacelli
M. Pigliacelli
T. Cassandro
🎯
T. Cassandro
Matias Antonini
Matias Antonini
Fellipe Jack
Fellipe Jack
C. Favasuli
🎯
C. Favasuli
S. Pontisso
S. Pontisso
J. Petriccione
J. Petriccione
F. Di Francesco
🎯
F. Di Francesco
M. Liberali
M. Liberali
G. Alesi
G. Alesi
F. Pittarello
⚽ 2
F. Pittarello
D. Mascardi
D. Mascardi
L. Sernicola
L. Sernicola
A. Mateju
A. Mateju
P. Hristov
P. Hristov
G. Aurelio
G. Aurelio
P. Beruatto
P. Beruatto
G. Di Serio
G. Di Serio
C. Comotto
C. Comotto
A. Nagy
A. Nagy
M. Valoti
M. Valoti
G. Lapadula
🎯
G. Lapadula
Catanzaro 3-4-2-1
Starting XI
22
M. Pigliacelli
G
84
T. Cassandro
🎯 78'
D
4
Matias Antonini
D
6
Fellipe Jack
⚽ 63' ↓ 77'
D
27
C. Favasuli
🎯 24' 🎯 63'
M
20
S. Pontisso
↓ 78'
M
10
J. Petriccione
⚽ 24' ↓ 71' 🟨 66'
M
94
F. Di Francesco
🎯 82' ↓ 89'
M
14
M. Liberali
↓ 78'
F
30
G. Alesi
F
8
F. Pittarello
⚽ 78' ⚽ 82'
F
Substitutes
1
C. Marietta
G
12
L. Madia
28
R. Oudin
M
21
M. Pompetti
↑ 78'
M
98
D. Buglio
M
62
R. Frosinini
↑ 77'
D
5
E. Bashi
D
39
N. Koffi
F
26
B. Verrengia
D
2
G. Esteves
↑ 89'
D
19
P. Nuamah
↑ 78'
F
32
F. Rispoli
↑ 71'
M
Spezia 5-4-1
Starting XI
12
D. Mascardi
G
17
L. Sernicola
↓ 87'
D
37
A. Mateju
D
55
P. Hristov
🟨 75'
D
31
G. Aurelio
D
11
P. Beruatto
↓ 78'
D
20
G. Di Serio
↓ 67' 🟨 45'
M
34
C. Comotto
↓ 87'
M
8
A. Nagy
↓ 67'
M
5
M. Valoti
⚽ 44' 🟨 80'
M
10
G. Lapadula
⚽ 90' 🎯 44'
F
Substitutes
16
L. Loria
G
85
S. Guidi
G
6
A. Bellemo
↑ 87'
M
32
L. Vignali
↑ 87'
D
25
F. Bandinelli
M
70
E. Adamo
↑ 78'
M
4
M. Ruggero
D
90
L. Skjellerup
↑ 67'
F
94
G. Bonfanti
D
60
A. Romano
↑ 67'
M
24
A. Bertoncini
D
Last matches: Catanzaro
29.05.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Monza
2
0
W
24.05.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Monza
0
2
L
20.05.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Palermo
0
2
L
17.05.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Palermo
3
0
W
12.05.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Avellino
3
0
W
08.05.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Bari
2
3
L
01.05.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Palermo
2
3
L
18.04.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Juve Stabia
1
1
D
14.04.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Modena
2
2
D
11.04.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Avellino
1
1
D
06.04.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Monza
1
1
D
21.03.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Cesena
1
3
L
14.03.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Padova
3
1
W
08.03.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Empoli
3
2
W
04.03.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Carrarese
3
3
D
01.03.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Frosinone
2
2
D
21.02.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Virtus Entella
3
1
W
14.02.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Mantova
2
0
W
10.02.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Pescara
2
0
W
07.02.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Reggiana
2
0
W
Last matches: Spezia
08.05.26
Ser
Spezia
Pescara
1
1
D
01.05.26
Ser
Spezia
Venezia
2
2
D
18.04.26
Ser
Spezia
Sudtirol
6
1
W
12.04.26
Ser
Spezia
Mantova
0
2
L
06.04.26
Ser
Spezia
Carrarese
1
3
L
21.03.26
Ser
Spezia
Juve Stabia
1
3
L
17.03.26
Ser
Spezia
Empoli
1
1
D
13.03.26
Ser
Spezia
Modena
0
3
L
07.03.26
Ser
Spezia
Monza
4
2
W
03.03.26
Ser
Spezia
Padova
2
2
D
28.02.26
Ser
Spezia
Reggiana
0
1
L
21.02.26
Ser
Spezia
Cesena
3
2
W
15.02.26
Ser
Spezia
Frosinone
0
2
L
11.02.26
Ser
Spezia
Bari
0
0
D
07.02.26
Ser
Spezia
Virtus Entella
1
1
D
31.01.26
Ser
Spezia
Sampdoria
0
1
L
24.01.26
Ser
Spezia
Avellino
1
0
W
18.01.26
Ser
Spezia
Palermo
0
1
L
10.01.26
Ser
Spezia
Sudtirol
1
2
L
27.12.25
Ser
Spezia
Pescara
2
1
W
H2H: Catanzaro vs Spezia
25.04.26
H2H
Catanzaro
Spezia
4
2
W
30.08.25
H2H
Spezia
Catanzaro
0
0
D
25.05.25
H2H
Spezia
Catanzaro
2
1
L
21.05.25
H2H
Catanzaro
Spezia
0
2
L
23.02.25
H2H
Spezia
Catanzaro
0
1
W
21.12.24
H2H
Catanzaro
Spezia
0
1
L
03.02.24
H2H
Spezia
Catanzaro
1
1
D
30.08.23
H2H
Catanzaro
Spezia
3
0
W
Last matches: Catanzaro
24.05.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Monza
0
2
L
17.05.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Palermo
3
0
W
12.05.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Avellino
3
0
W
08.05.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Bari
2
3
L
14.04.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Modena
2
2
D
06.04.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Monza
1
1
D
08.03.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Empoli
3
2
W
01.03.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Frosinone
2
2
D
14.02.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Mantova
2
0
W
07.02.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Reggiana
2
0
W
25.01.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Sampdoria
0
0
D
27.12.25
Ser
Catanzaro
Cesena
2
0
W
13.12.25
Ser
Catanzaro
Avellino
1
0
W
29.11.25
Ser
Catanzaro
Virtus Entella
3
2
W
21.11.25
Ser
Catanzaro
Pescara
3
3
D
02.11.25
Ser
Catanzaro
Venezia
2
1
W
25.10.25
Ser
Catanzaro
Palermo
1
0
W
19.10.25
Ser
Catanzaro
Padova
0
1
L
26.09.25
Ser
Catanzaro
Juve Stabia
2
2
D
13.09.25
Ser
Catanzaro
Carrarese
1
1
D
H2H at home: Catanzaro
25.04.26
H2H
Catanzaro
Spezia
4
2
W
21.05.25
H2H
Catanzaro
Spezia
0
2
L
21.12.24
H2H
Catanzaro
Spezia
0
1
L
30.08.23
H2H
Catanzaro
Spezia
3
0
W
Last matches: Spezia
08.05.26
Ser
Spezia
Pescara
1
1
D
06.04.26
Ser
Spezia
Carrarese
1
3
L
21.03.26
Ser
Spezia
Juve Stabia
1
3
L
13.03.26
Ser
Spezia
Modena
0
3
L
03.03.26
Ser
Spezia
Padova
2
2
D
21.02.26
Ser
Spezia
Cesena
3
2
W
11.02.26
Ser
Spezia
Bari
0
0
D
31.01.26
Ser
Spezia
Sampdoria
0
1
L
18.01.26
Ser
Spezia
Palermo
0
1
L
10.01.26
Ser
Spezia
Sudtirol
1
2
L
20.12.25
Ser
Spezia
Frosinone
1
2
L
08.12.25
Ser
Spezia
Virtus Entella
1
0
W
23.11.25
Ser
Spezia
Mantova
1
4
L
02.11.25
Ser
Spezia
Monza
0
1
L
25.10.25
Ser
Spezia
Avellino
4
0
W
30.09.25
Ser
Spezia
Reggiana
1
1
D
27.09.25
Ser
Spezia
Venezia
0
2
L
24.09.25
Cop
Spezia
Parma
2
2
D
14.09.25
Ser
Spezia
Empoli
1
1
D
H2H away: Spezia
25.04.26
H2H
Catanzaro
Spezia
4
2
L
21.05.25
H2H
Catanzaro
Spezia
0
2
W
21.12.24
H2H
Catanzaro
Spezia
0
1
W
30.08.23
H2H
Catanzaro
Spezia
3
0
L

Standings

Serie B: Regular season
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 24 10 4 77:31 46 82
W D W W D
2 38 23 12 3 76:34 42 81
W W W W D
3 38 22 10 6 61:32 29 76
D L W W W
4 38 20 12 6 61:33 28 72
L W D W D
5 38 15 14 9 62:51 11 59
L L W D D
6 38 15 10 13 49:36 13 55
L W L L D
7 38 11 18 9 44:45 -1 51
D L D D W
8 38 13 10 15 43:55 -12 49
W L W W D
9 38 13 7 18 45:57 -12 46
L W W L W
10 38 12 10 16 39:49 -10 46
W W L W W
11 38 12 10 16 45:56 -11 46
L D D L L
12 38 10 14 14 47:52 -5 44
L D L D L
13 38 11 11 16 35:48 -13 44
L W D L W
14 38 10 12 16 36:51 -15 42
W L W D D
15 38 9 14 15 47:54 -7 41
D W L D L
16 38 8 17 13 38:48 -10 41
D L L L D
17 38 10 10 18 38:60 -22 40
W W L L L
18 38 9 10 19 36:56 -20 37
W L D L W
19 38 8 11 19 43:59 -16 35
D D L W L
20 38 7 14 17 51:66 -15 35
D L D D L
Promotion - Serie A
Promotion - Serie B (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Promotion - Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)
Serie B (Play Out)
Relegation