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ITALY › SERIE B
11.10.2026 13:00
Stadio Nicola Ceravolo
Referee: Giuseppe Mucera
Catanzaro
Match Timeline
Mantova
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
18'
Stefano Cella
Mantova
⚽
30'
Bodin Tomašević · Assist: Rares Ilie
Mantova
⚽
34'
Francesco Ruocco · Assist: Fahem Benaissa Yahia
Mantova
🔄
45'
Nicola Mosti ↔ Franky Tchaouna
Catanzaro
🔄
45'
Ruggero Frosinini ↔ Federico Di Francesco
Catanzaro
⚽
55'
Davide Bragantini · Assist: Alessio Castellini
Mantova
🔄
64'
Mehdi Dorval ↔ Marco D'Alessandro
Catanzaro
🔄
64'
Pietro Lemmello ↔ Emanuele Pecorino
Catanzaro
🔄
66'
Davide Bragantini ↔ Ismael Cajazzo
Mantova
🔄
66'
Rares Ilie ↔ Jean-Pierre Longonda Itamba Mboyo
Mantova
🔄
71'
Francesco Ruocco ↔ Ettore Gliozzi
Mantova
🔄
72'
Bodin Tomašević ↔ Tommaso Del Lungo
Mantova
🔄
78'
Gabriele Alesi ↔ G. Arditi
Catanzaro
🔄
83'
Rachid Kouda ↔ Sambaly Keita
Mantova
🟨
86'
Marco Ruggero
Catanzaro
⚽
90+1'
Matias Antonini Lui · Assist: Emanuele Pecorino
Catanzaro
🟨
90+3'
Fahem Benaissa Yahia
Mantova
🟨
90+3'
Federico Di Francesco
Catanzaro

Catanzaro vs Mantova Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 49.7%
Odds 3.29
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds 1.57
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds 1.81
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
49.7%
3.29 ▥
BTTS Yes
82.5%
1.57 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
1.81 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
90.7%
1.25 ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
7.00 ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
12.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Catanzaro Win 36.5%
Draw 13.8%
Mantova Win 49.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Catanzaro1.49
Mantova2.24
Recent Form (Last 5)
Catanzaro Catanzaro
WWDLW
13 GF / 12 GA
Mantova Mantova
WLDWL
30 GF / 14 GA
Key Stats
1.63
Average Goals Scored
2.73
1.5
Average Goals Conceded
1.27
5
BTTS Yes
7
6
Over 2.5
7
3.67
Shots on Goal
5.71

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Catanzaro Catanzaro 8 matches
Mantova Mantova 11 matches
Catanzaro Statistic Mantova
3 Wins 7
1 Draws 2
4 Losses 2
13 Goals For 30
12 Goals Against 14
1.63 Avg Goals Scored 2.73
1.5 Avg Goals Conceded 1.27
5 BTTS Yes 7
7 Over 1.5 10
6 Over 2.5 7
3 Over 3.5 6
2 Clean Sheets 3
1 Failed To Score 1
3.67 Shots On Goal 5.71
13.83 Total Shots 12.14
4.33 Corners 3.57
57.3% Ball Possession 47.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Mantova's more proactive style and Catanzaro's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Mantova. Mantova carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 3 with 11 points while Catanzaro sit 18 on 3, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Catanzaro have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Catanzaro Analysis

Catanzaro approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 18 with 3 points from 5 matches. Across the season they have posted 1 wins, 0 draws, and 4 defeats, and the 5:9 goal record continues to suggest poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Their attacking burden often falls on P. Iemmello (2 goals), B. Verrengia (1 goals), Marco D'Alessandro (1 goals), with creative support from G. Alesi (1 assists), Matias Antonini (1 assists), A. Candela (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 1 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Mantova Analysis

Mantova approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 3 on 11 points after 5 outings. With 3 wins, 2 draws, and 0 defeats plus a goal balance of 10:5, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by F. Ruocco (4 goals), V. Vlahović (2 goals), E. Gliozzi (1 goals), with creative support from A. Castellini (3 assists), V. Vlahović (1 assists), E. Gliozzi (1 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses, which underlines a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 4 head-to-head meetings, Catanzaro won 2 times, Mantova won 0 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 7:3 from Catanzaro's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 2.5 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (86.2%)
Predicted formations: Catanzaro 3-4-2-1 / Mantova 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Catanzaro wins 2, draws 2, Mantova wins 0

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 6 5 1 0 14:7 7 16
W W D W W
2 6 3 3 0 9:3 6 12
D W D W D
3 5 3 2 0 10:5 5 11
D W D W W
4 6 3 2 1 7:4 3 11
D W L W D
5 6 3 1 2 11:7 4 10
W L D W W
6 5 3 1 1 8:4 4 10
W D L W W
7 6 3 1 2 11:8 3 10
W D L W W
8 6 3 1 2 8:5 3 10
W W W L D
9 5 2 1 2 10:7 3 7
W L W D L
10 5 2 1 2 5:6 -1 7
L W L D W
11 6 1 4 1 7:8 -1 7
L D D D W
12 6 2 1 3 6:13 -7 7
D L W L L
13 6 2 0 4 6:10 -4 6
L L L W L
14 6 1 3 2 8:7 1 6
D D W D L
15 6 1 3 2 5:7 -2 6
D D D W L
16 6 1 2 3 7:13 -6 5
L L D D L
17 6 1 1 4 6:13 -7 4
L W L L L
18 5 1 0 4 5:9 -4 3
L W L L L
19 6 1 3 2 5:8 -3 2
D D D L W
20 5 0 1 4 2:6 -4 1
L L L D L
Promotion - Serie A
Promotion - Serie B (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Promotion - Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)
Serie B (Play Out)
Relegation