ITALY SERIE B
08.05.2026 18:30
Stadio Nicola Ceravolo
Referee: S. Sozza
Catanzaro
Match Timeline
Bari
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
12'
B. Verrengia · Assist: M. D'Alessandro
Catanzaro
🟨
16'
Davide Buglio
Catanzaro
23'
G. Moncini · Assist: E. Rao
Bari
🟨
26'
Kevin Piscopo
Bari
40'
K. Piscopo
Bari
50'
K. Piscopo · Assist: M. Dorval
Bari
🔄
52'
N. Brighenti ↔ F. Di Francesco
Catanzaro
🔄
52'
G. Esteves ↔ T. Cassandro
Catanzaro
🔄
52'
D. Buglio ↔ G. Alesi
Catanzaro
🔄
69'
R. Oudin ↔ M. Liberali
Catanzaro
🔄
69'
T. Esteves ↔ F. Artioli
Bari
🔄
69'
K. Piscopo ↔ M. Mane
Bari
🔄
78'
E. Rao ↔ N. Bellomo
Bari
🔄
79'
M. D'Alessandro ↔ P. Nuamah
Catanzaro
🔄
79'
G. Moncini ↔ M. Cuni
Bari
🔄
90+2'
G. Maggiore ↔ L. Dickmann
Bari
90'
N. Koffi
Catanzaro

Catanzaro vs Bari Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 90.1%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 17.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 30.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
90.1%
-
BTTS BTTS No
17.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
30.4%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
68.5%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Catanzaro Win 90.1%
Draw 0%
Bari Win 9.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Catanzaro1.58
Bari1.07
Recent Form (Last 5)
Catanzaro Catanzaro
WWDLW
60 GF / 49 GA
Bari Bari
WLDWL
35 GF / 60 GA
Key Stats
1.58
Average Goals Scored
0.92
1.29
Average Goals Conceded
1.58
25
BTTS Yes
19
20
Over 2.5
19
4.39
Shots on Goal
3

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Catanzaro Catanzaro 38 matches
Bari Bari 38 matches
Catanzaro Statistic Bari
15 Wins 9
14 Draws 10
9 Losses 19
60 Goals For 35
49 Goals Against 60
1.58 Avg Goals Scored 0.92
1.29 Avg Goals Conceded 1.58
25 BTTS Yes 19
30 Over 1.5 31
20 Over 2.5 19
15 Over 3.5 7
9 Clean Sheets 7
7 Failed To Score 15
4.39 Shots On Goal 3
12.76 Total Shots 10.18
4.05 Corners 3.5
53.6% Ball Possession 46.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Catanzaro's more proactive style and Bari's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Bari arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Catanzaro expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Bari in 4-3-1-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Bari having the stronger overall control. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Bari. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Catanzaro arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 5 with 59 points compared to Bari in 17 on 37, which underlines the gap in season consistency.

Catanzaro Analysis

Catanzaro come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 5 with 59 points from 37 matches. Their overall return of 15 wins, 14 draws, and 8 losses with goals at 60:48 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Filippo Pittarello (12 goals), P. Iemmello (10 goals), Alphadjo Cissè (6 goals), with creative support from P. Iemmello (9 assists), Filippo Pittarello (6 assists), S. Pontisso (6 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 9 wins, 8 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Bari Analysis

Bari sit 17 with 37 points after 37 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 9 wins, 10 draws, and 18 defeats, and the 35:58 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on G. Moncini (10 goals), E. Rao (6 goals), C. Gytkjaer (3 goals), with creative support from M. Dorval (6 assists), L. Dickmann (3 assists), G. Moncini (2 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 5 draws, and 11 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 12 head-to-head meetings, Catanzaro won 3 times, Bari won 5 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:18 from Catanzaro's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.92 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Catanzaro 3-4-2-1 / Bari 4-3-1-2
H2H summary: Catanzaro wins 3, draws 4, Bari wins 5

Standings

Serie B: Regular season
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 24 10 4 77:31 46 82
W D W W D
2 38 23 12 3 76:34 42 81
W W W W D
3 38 22 10 6 61:32 29 76
D L W W W
4 38 20 12 6 61:33 28 72
L W D W D
5 38 15 14 9 62:51 11 59
L L W D D
6 38 15 10 13 49:36 13 55
L W L L D
7 38 11 18 9 44:45 -1 51
D L D D W
8 38 13 10 15 43:55 -12 49
W L W W D
9 38 13 7 18 45:57 -12 46
L W W L W
10 38 12 10 16 39:49 -10 46
W W L W W
11 38 12 10 16 45:56 -11 46
L D D L L
12 38 10 14 14 47:52 -5 44
L D L D L
13 38 11 11 16 35:48 -13 44
L W D L W
14 38 10 12 16 36:51 -15 42
W L W D D
15 38 9 14 15 47:54 -7 41
D W L D L
16 38 8 17 13 38:48 -10 41
D L L L D
17
Bari Away
38 10 10 18 38:60 -22 40
W W L L L
18 38 9 10 19 36:56 -20 37
W L D L W
19 38 8 11 19 43:59 -16 35
D D L W L
20 38 7 14 17 51:66 -15 35
D L D D L
Promotion - Serie A
Promotion - Serie B (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Promotion - Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)
Serie B (Play Out)
Relegation