Login Register
04.10.2026 16:30
Estadio Municipal de Castalia
Referee: M. H. De Aza
Castellón
Match Timeline
AD Ceuta FC
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
2'
I. Suero · Assist: A. Garcia
Castellón
🟨
6'
Gabriel Okoro
AD Ceuta FC
🔄
46'
C. Okoro ↔ M. Illescas
AD Ceuta FC
🟨
49'
Carlos Hernández
AD Ceuta FC
⚽
53'
J. Escobar · Assist: J. Gonzalez
AD Ceuta FC
🟨
55'
Alberto Jiménez
Castellón
🔄
63'
F. Ceccherini ↔ L. Alcazar
Castellón
🔄
63'
I. Cordoba ↔ A. Gala
Castellón
🔄
69'
K. Kone ↔ E. Sevikyan
AD Ceuta FC
🔄
77'
J. Gonzalez ↔ A. Melendez
AD Ceuta FC
🔄
77'
K. Zalazar ↔ O. Sadik
AD Ceuta FC
🔄
79'
Alvaro ↔ H. Bellari
Castellón
🟨
84'
Jose Matos
AD Ceuta FC
🔄
85'
A. Camacho ↔ A. Petxa
AD Ceuta FC
🔄
86'
P. Santiago ↔ R. Sanchez
Castellón
🔄
86'
A. Garcia ↔ D. Muale Nzanza
Castellón

Castellón vs AD Ceuta FC Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 80.4%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
80.4%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
67.1%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Castellón Win 80.4%
Draw 4.8%
AD Ceuta FC Win 14.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Castellón1.81
AD Ceuta FC1.02
Recent Form (Last 5)
Castellón Castellón
W W W W W
13 GF / 2 GA
AD Ceuta FC AD Ceuta FC
W D L L L
5 GF / 10 GA
Key Stats
1.69
Average Goals Scored
1.09
0.92
Average Goals Conceded
2
5
BTTS Yes
7
7
Over 2.5
7
5.57
Shots on Goal
3.57

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Castellón Castellón 13 matches
AD Ceuta FC AD Ceuta FC 11 matches
Castellón Statistic AD Ceuta FC
8 Wins 3
3 Draws 1
2 Losses 7
22 Goals For 12
12 Goals Against 22
1.69 Avg Goals Scored 1.09
0.92 Avg Goals Conceded 2
5 BTTS Yes 7
10 Over 1.5 10
7 Over 2.5 7
3 Over 3.5 4
7 Clean Sheets 0
3 Failed To Score 4
5.57 Shots On Goal 3.57
15.57 Total Shots 13.71
5.43 Corners 5.43
61.6% Ball Possession 50%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Castellón's more proactive style and AD Ceuta FC's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Castellón come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Castellón arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 16 points compared to AD Ceuta FC in 21 on 4, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring AD Ceuta FC. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Castellón expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and AD Ceuta FC in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward AD Ceuta FC having the stronger overall control.

Castellón Analysis

Operating from 1 place with 16 points from 6 games, Castellón bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. They have recorded 5 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses, with a 12:2 goal return and very strong form and are on a winning streak. In attack they lean heavily on Ousmane Camara (4 goals), Pablo Santiago (2 goals), Barri (1 goals), with creative support from Ousmane Camara (1 assists), Pablo Santiago (1 assists), Barri (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, the split of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

AD Ceuta FC Analysis

AD Ceuta FC approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 21 with 4 points from 7 matches. The overall return of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 5 defeats with a 6:17 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Carlos Hernández (4 goals), Jordi Escobar (2 goals), with creative support from K. Koné (3 assists), Jordi Escobar (1 assists), Kuki (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have managed 0 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 4 head-to-head meetings, Castellón won 1 times, AD Ceuta FC won 0 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 9:7 from Castellón's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 4 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.2%)
Predicted formations: Castellón 3-4-2-1 / AD Ceuta FC 4-3-3
H2H summary: Castellón wins 1, draws 3, AD Ceuta FC wins 0

Standings

Segunda
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 8 0 2 20:7 13 24
W W W W W
2 10 7 2 1 18:4 14 23
W L D W W
3 10 7 1 2 20:11 9 22
D L W W W
4 10 6 1 3 11:9 2 19
W W W L W
5 10 5 3 2 17:9 8 18
W D D W W
6 10 5 3 2 12:5 7 18
D W D L W
7 10 5 2 3 16:13 3 17
W W W L L
8 10 5 2 3 13:10 3 17
W L L W W
9 10 5 2 3 13:10 3 17
W W L W L
10 10 4 4 2 10:8 2 16
L W D D W
11 10 4 2 4 13:13 0 14
W W W L L
12 10 3 4 3 12:14 -2 13
D D L D L
13 10 3 3 4 15:14 1 12
L W D W D
14 10 3 3 4 15:16 -1 12
D W L D L
15 10 4 0 6 15:20 -5 12
W L W L W
16 10 3 2 5 13:19 -6 11
L L D L L
17 10 3 2 5 6:15 -9 11
L L L L W
18 10 3 1 6 13:17 -4 10
L W D W L
19 10 2 2 6 14:21 -7 8
L L L L L
20 10 1 4 5 11:13 -2 7
L L W D L
21 10 1 2 7 9:22 -13 5
L L D W D
22 10 0 1 9 6:22 -16 1
L L L L L
Promotion - LaLiga
Promotion - LaLiga2 (Promotion - Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Relegation