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ITALY › SERIE B
17.10.2026 13:00
Stadio dei Marmi
Referee: Federico La Penna

Carrarese vs Modena Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 81%
Odds 1.78
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.8%
Odds 1.75
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 55.6%
Odds 1.88
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
81%
1.78 ▥
BTTS Yes
58.8%
1.75 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
55.6%
1.88 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.20 ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
4.75 ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
8.50 ▥
Probability Distribution
Carrarese Win 13.7%
Draw 5.3%
Modena Win 81%
Expected Goals (xG)
Carrarese0.7
Modena1.44
Recent Form (Last 5)
Carrarese Carrarese
WWDLW
5 GF / 9 GA
Modena Modena
WLDWL
19 GF / 10 GA
Key Stats
0.56
Average Goals Scored
1.73
1
Average Goals Conceded
0.91
2
BTTS Yes
5
1
Over 2.5
6
3.29
Shots on Goal
6.14

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Carrarese Carrarese 9 matches
Modena Modena 11 matches
Carrarese Statistic Modena
2 Wins 6
1 Draws 2
6 Losses 3
5 Goals For 19
9 Goals Against 10
0.56 Avg Goals Scored 1.73
1 Avg Goals Conceded 0.91
2 BTTS Yes 5
4 Over 1.5 7
1 Over 2.5 6
0 Over 3.5 3
2 Clean Sheets 4
5 Failed To Score 3
3.29 Shots On Goal 6.14
11.29 Total Shots 20
4.57 Corners 5
38.3% Ball Possession 52.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Modena's more proactive style and Carrarese's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Modena carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 6 with 10 points while Carrarese sit 20 on 1, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Modena. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Carrarese have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Carrarese expected to line up in 3-5-2 and Modena in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Modena having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Carrarese Analysis

With 1 points from 5 games and a place of 20, Carrarese still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 0 wins, 1 draws, and 4 defeats with a 2:6 goal balance points toward poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Going forward they depend heavily on F. Abiuso (1 goals), P. Pinelli (1 goals), with creative support from J. Rouhi (1 assists), M. Cissé (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, the split record of 0 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Modena Analysis

Modena are currently 6 in the standings with 10 points from 5 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 3 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses, while the 8:4 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on G. Ambrosino (2 goals), G. Olzer (2 goals), G. Caso (1 goals), with creative support from G. Ambrosino (2 assists), D. Tonoli (2 assists), A. Bianco (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 6 head-to-head meetings, Carrarese won 1 times, Modena won 4 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 4:10 from Carrarese's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 2.33 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.7%)
Predicted formations: Carrarese 3-5-2 / Modena 4-3-3
H2H summary: Carrarese wins 1, draws 1, Modena wins 4

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 6 5 1 0 14:7 7 16
W W D W W
2 6 4 2 0 13:6 7 14
W D W D W
3 6 4 1 1 11:6 5 13
W W D L W
4 6 3 3 0 9:3 6 12
D W D W D
5 6 3 2 1 7:4 3 11
D W L W D
6 6 3 1 2 11:7 4 10
W L D W W
7 6 3 1 2 11:8 3 10
W D L W W
8 6 3 1 2 8:5 3 10
W W W L D
9 6 2 1 3 12:10 2 7
L W L W D
10 6 2 1 3 5:8 -3 7
L L W L D
11 6 1 4 1 7:8 -1 7
L D D D W
12 6 2 1 3 6:13 -7 7
D L W L L
13 6 2 0 4 6:10 -4 6
L L L W L
14 6 1 3 2 8:7 1 6
D D W D L
15 6 1 3 2 5:7 -2 6
D D D W L
16 6 1 2 3 7:13 -6 5
L L D D L
17 6 1 1 4 4:6 -2 4
W L L L D
18 6 1 1 4 6:13 -7 4
L W L L L
19 6 1 0 5 6:12 -6 3
L L W L L
20 6 1 3 2 5:8 -3 2
D D D L W
Promotion - Serie A
Promotion - Serie B (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Promotion - Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)
Serie B (Play Out)
Relegation