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ENGLAND › CHAMPIONSHIP
24.10.2026 14:00
Cardiff City Stadium

Cardiff vs Birmingham Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 49.6%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
49.6%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
82.5%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Cardiff Win 38.6%
Draw 11.8%
Birmingham Win 49.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Cardiff1.7
Birmingham1.86
Recent Form (Last 5)
Cardiff Cardiff
WWDLW
33 GF / 26 GA
Birmingham Birmingham
WLDWL
31 GF / 15 GA
Key Stats
2.2
Average Goals Scored
1.94
1.73
Average Goals Conceded
0.94
12
BTTS Yes
10
11
Over 2.5
12
6.09
Shots on Goal
4.82

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Cardiff Cardiff 15 matches
Birmingham Birmingham 16 matches
Cardiff Statistic Birmingham
5 Wins 9
5 Draws 6
5 Losses 1
33 Goals For 31
26 Goals Against 15
2.2 Avg Goals Scored 1.94
1.73 Avg Goals Conceded 0.94
12 BTTS Yes 10
14 Over 1.5 13
11 Over 2.5 12
9 Over 3.5 6
0 Clean Sheets 6
3 Failed To Score 1
6.09 Shots On Goal 4.82
17.27 Total Shots 13.73
7.18 Corners 5.73
61.5% Ball Possession 50.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Birmingham carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 4 with 17 points while Cardiff sit 19 on 10, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Birmingham. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Cardiff Analysis

With 10 points from 10 games and a place of 19, Cardiff still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 2 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses, together with goals at 16:15, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through J. Moylan (5 goals), Cian Ashford (2 goals), Y. Salech (2 goals), with creative support from J. Moylan (2 assists), Cian Ashford (2 assists), Y. Salech (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, the split record of 2 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests balanced attacking football.

Birmingham Analysis

Operating from 4 place with 17 points from 10 games, Birmingham bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 4 wins, 5 draws, and 1 defeats, together with goals at 17:11, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through A. Priske (3 goals), L. Millar (2 goals), P. Neumann (2 goals), with creative support from L. Millar (3 assists), A. Cochrane (2 assists), P. Roberts (2 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. Away from home, their record of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Cardiff won 8 times, Birmingham won 2 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 26:14 from Cardiff's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.67 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (88.2%)
Predicted formations: Cardiff 4-2-3-1 / Birmingham 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Cardiff wins 8, draws 5, Birmingham wins 2

Standings

Championship
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 11 7 2 2 16:8 8 23
L W W W W
2 11 6 4 1 30:12 18 22
W W D D W
3 11 6 4 1 22:16 6 22
D W W D D
4 11 5 5 1 20:11 9 20
W W W D W
5 11 6 2 3 15:12 3 20
W W L L D
6 11 6 1 4 18:16 2 19
W L W W W
7 11 6 3 2 21:10 11 17
D W W L W
8 10 5 2 3 18:15 3 17
W L L W W
9 11 4 5 2 15:12 3 17
L W D D D
10 11 4 3 4 17:16 1 15
L W W D W
11 11 4 3 4 15:14 1 15
W L W L L
12 11 4 3 4 18:18 0 15
D L W D D
13 10 4 2 4 13:13 0 14
W W L D D
14 11 3 5 3 15:16 -1 14
W L D W L
15 11 4 2 5 15:18 -3 14
D W L W W
16 11 4 2 5 12:15 -3 14
L L D W L
17 11 3 5 3 10:15 -5 14
L D D L D
18 11 3 3 5 9:19 -10 12
D L L L W
19 11 2 5 4 18:17 1 11
D W L W L
20 11 3 2 6 10:19 -9 11
W L L L L
21 11 3 0 8 17:21 -4 9
L L L L L
22 11 1 5 5 16:21 -5 8
L D W D L
23 11 1 3 7 9:20 -11 6
L L D D L
24 11 1 1 9 9:24 -15 4
L L L D L
Promotion - Premier League
Promotion - Championship (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Promotion - Championship (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)
Relegation - League One