BRAZIL SERIE D
16.05.2026 22:00
Capital Brasilia
Match Timeline
Ceilândia
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
21'
Yann Rolim
Capital Brasilia
25'
D. Araujo
Ceilândia
87'
Ruan
Capital Brasilia

Capital Brasilia vs Ceilândia Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 70.5%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 61.9%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 77.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
70.5%
-
BTTS BTTS No
61.9%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
77.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Capital Brasilia Win 70.5%
Draw 0%
Ceilândia Win 29.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Capital Brasilia0.87
Ceilândia0.5
Recent Form (Last 5)
Capital Brasilia Capital Brasilia
WWDLW
6 GF / 3 GA
Ceilândia Ceilândia
WLDWL
3 GF / 4 GA
Key Stats
1
Average Goals Scored
0.5
0.5
Average Goals Conceded
0.67
2
BTTS Yes
1
1
Over 2.5
1
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Capital Brasilia Capital Brasilia 6 matches
Ceilândia Ceilândia 6 matches
Capital Brasilia Statistic Ceilândia
4 Wins 2
1 Draws 1
1 Losses 3
6 Goals For 3
3 Goals Against 4
1 Avg Goals Scored 0.5
0.5 Avg Goals Conceded 0.67
2 BTTS Yes 1
2 Over 1.5 1
1 Over 2.5 1
0 Over 3.5 0
3 Clean Sheets 3
1 Failed To Score 3
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Capital Brasilia's more proactive style and Ceilândia's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Ceilândia arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Ceilândia. Capital Brasilia arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 2 with 13 points compared to Ceilândia in 3 on 7, which underlines the gap in season consistency. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Ceilândia having the stronger overall control.

Capital Brasilia Analysis

Capital Brasilia come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 2 place with 13 points after 6 matches. With 4 wins, 1 draws, and 1 defeats plus a goal balance of 6:3, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by Cesinha (1 goals), and at the back they have appeared very solid. At home, their record of 2 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

Ceilândia Analysis

With 7 points from 6 games and a place of 3, Ceilândia still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 3 defeats with a 3:4 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Cleyton (1 goals), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Capital Brasilia won 7 times, Ceilândia won 3 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 25:15 from Capital Brasilia's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 2.67 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
H2H summary: Capital Brasilia wins 7, draws 5, Ceilândia wins 3

Standings

Group 4
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 7 2 1 16:6 10 23
W W D W W
2 10 5 4 1 13:7 6 19
W D D L D
3 10 3 3 4 9:10 -1 12
D D W L L
4 10 2 6 2 10:9 1 12
D D D W L
5 10 2 3 5 11:18 -7 9
L D L W D
6 10 1 2 7 7:16 -9 5
L L D L W
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)