FRANCE LIGUE 3
24.09.2026 18:45

Caen vs Rouen Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 45.2%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 61.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
45.2%
-
BTTS Yes
58.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
61.1%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 1-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Caen Win 37%
Draw 17.8%
Rouen Win 45.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Caen1.46
Rouen1.49
Recent Form (Last 5)
Caen Caen
WWDLW
26 GF / 16 GA
Rouen Rouen
WLDWL
16 GF / 4 GA
Key Stats
2.17
Average Goals Scored
1.6
1.33
Average Goals Conceded
0.4
6
BTTS Yes
3
6
Over 2.5
4
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Caen Caen 12 matches
Rouen Rouen 10 matches
Caen Statistic Rouen
7 Wins 7
1 Draws 2
4 Losses 1
26 Goals For 16
16 Goals Against 4
2.17 Avg Goals Scored 1.6
1.33 Avg Goals Conceded 0.4
6 BTTS Yes 3
10 Over 1.5 6
6 Over 2.5 4
5 Over 3.5 1
4 Clean Sheets 7
2 Failed To Score 1
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Rouen having the stronger overall control. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Rouen look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Rouen.

Caen Analysis

Caen approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 2 on 12 points after 6 outings. They have recorded 4 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with a 12:5 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have managed 3 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Rouen Analysis

Rouen come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 1 place with 14 points after 6 matches. The return of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 0 defeats, together with goals at 12:2, reflects very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Much of their attacking edge comes through their main attacking players, while their defending has remained very solid. Away from home, they have managed 3 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Caen won 0 times, Rouen won 0 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 2:2 from Caen's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (82.2%)
H2H summary: Caen wins 0, draws 2, Rouen wins 0

Standings

National
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1
Rouen Away
7 5 2 0 13:2 11 17
W W D W W
2 7 4 3 0 10:6 4 15
W D D W D
3 7 3 3 1 9:6 3 12
W W D D W
4 7 3 3 1 13:11 2 12
D L D D W
5
Caen Home
7 4 0 3 12:7 5 12
L W W L W
6 7 3 2 2 8:2 6 11
W D W W L
7 7 2 5 0 8:3 5 11
D D W W D
8 7 3 1 3 10:11 -1 10
D W L L W
9 7 3 1 3 9:7 2 10
W L D L W
10 7 3 1 3 6:9 -3 10
D W L W L
11 7 2 3 2 5:7 -2 9
D L D D W
12 7 2 3 2 6:8 -2 9
D W D W L
13 7 2 3 2 11:8 3 9
D W W L L
14 7 2 1 4 6:10 -4 7
L L D L W
15 7 1 2 4 7:12 -5 5
L L D D L
16 7 1 1 5 3:8 -5 4
L L D W L
17 7 1 1 5 4:12 -8 4
D L L L L
18 7 1 1 5 6:17 -11 4
L D L L L
Promotion - Ligue 2
Promotion - Ligue 2 (Promotion)
Relegation