FRANCE NATIONAL 1
--.--.---- --:--
Stade Michel d'Ornano
Caen
Match Timeline
Concarneau
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
17'
S. Inquel
Concarneau
🔄
38'
D. Seba ↔ A. Seydi
Concarneau
🟨
54'
L. Rajot
Caen
🔄
64'
J. Tell ↔ Y. Soukouna
Concarneau
🔄
64'
S. Baldoni ↔ J. Varvat
Concarneau
🔄
67'
L. Milliner ↔ B. Dali Amar
Caen
🔄
71'
D. Debohi ↔ L. Morante
Caen
🔄
72'
I. Botella ↔ K. Portut
Caen
🔄
75'
F. Da Silva ↔ M. Ntumi
Concarneau
🔄
84'
A. Duville-Parsemain ↔ A. Gnanduillet
Caen
🟨
89'
T. Sinquin
Concarneau

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 76.8%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 45.3%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 43.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
76.8%
-
BTTS BTTS No
45.3%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
43.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Caen Win 39.7%
Draw 23.2%
Concarneau Win 37.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Caen1.26
Concarneau1.11
Recent Form (Last 5)
Caen Caen
WWDLW
40 GF / 34 GA
Concarneau Concarneau
WLDWL
37 GF / 40 GA
Key Stats
1.29
Average Goals Scored
1.12
1.1
Average Goals Conceded
1.21
18
BTTS Yes
13
13
Over 2.5
15
0
Shots on Goal
5

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Caen Caen 31 matches
Concarneau Concarneau 33 matches
Caen Statistic Concarneau
8 Wins 10
15 Draws 12
8 Losses 11
40 Goals For 37
34 Goals Against 40
1.29 Avg Goals Scored 1.12
1.1 Avg Goals Conceded 1.21
18 BTTS Yes 13
24 Over 1.5 22
13 Over 2.5 15
5 Over 3.5 7
11 Clean Sheets 13
6 Failed To Score 13
0 Shots On Goal 5
0 Total Shots 14
0 Corners 2
0% Ball Possession 44%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and Caen's more proactive style and Concarneau's more cautious structure points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Concarneau having the stronger overall control. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Concarneau.

Caen Analysis

So far, Caen have built a campaign that leaves them 8 in the table on 39 points from 30 matches. The record of 8 wins, 15 draws, and 7 defeats, together with a 38:31 goal balance, points toward good form and are on a winning streak. Much of their attacking threat comes through I. Botella (9 goals), A. Duville-Parsemain (5 goals), A. Gnanduillet (5 goals), with creative support from I. Botella (4 assists), R. Labonne (4 assists), O. Mazie (3 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. At home, the record of 5 wins, 8 draws, and 2 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Concarneau Analysis

So far, Concarneau have built a campaign that leaves them 10 in the table on 36 points from 30 matches. The record of 8 wins, 12 draws, and 10 defeats, together with a 30:35 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Y. Soukouna (7 goals), J. Tell (4 goals), D. Seba (3 goals), with creative support from J. Tell (2 assists), S. Baldoni (2 assists), G. Gbelle (2 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 4 wins, 6 draws, and 5 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, Caen won 2 times, Concarneau won 1 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 6:4 from Caen's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (76.8%)
H2H summary: Caen wins 2, draws 2, Concarneau wins 1

Lineups

Caen
Formation
Concarneau
Y. Clementia
Y. Clementia
R. Labonne
R. Labonne
D. Debohi
D. Debohi
Y. M'Vila
Y. M'Vila
D. Bolumbu
D. Bolumbu
L. Rajot
L. Rajot
Z. Bagbema
Z. Bagbema
L. Milliner
L. Milliner
M. Hafid
M. Hafid
A. Duville-Parsemain
A. Duville-Parsemain
I. Botella
I. Botella
V. Viot
V. Viot
D. Seba
D. Seba
G. Jannez
G. Jannez
T. Sinquin
T. Sinquin
J. Halby
J. Halby
L. Goujon
L. Goujon
G. Gbelle
G. Gbelle
S. Inquel
S. Inquel
F. Da Silva
F. Da Silva
S. Baldoni
S. Baldoni
J. Tell
J. Tell
Caen 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
16
Y. Clementia
17
R. Labonne
27
D. Debohi
↓ 71'
6
Y. M'Vila
3
D. Bolumbu
14
L. Rajot
🟨 54'
25
Z. Bagbema
24
L. Milliner
↓ 67'
22
M. Hafid
9
A. Duville-Parsemain
↓ 84'
19
I. Botella
↓ 72'
Substitutes
23
L. Morante
↑ 71'
21
G. Tome
5
B. Dali Amar
↑ 67'
11
A. Gnanduillet
↑ 84'
32
K. Portut
↑ 72'
Concarneau 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
1
V. Viot
6
D. Seba
↓ 38'
4
G. Jannez
26
T. Sinquin
🟨 89'
27
J. Halby
23
L. Goujon
10
G. Gbelle
3
S. Inquel
🟨 17'
18
F. Da Silva
↓ 75'
21
S. Baldoni
↓ 64'
9
J. Tell
↓ 64'
Substitutes
40
P. Patron
25
A. Seydi
↑ 38'
20
M. Ntumi
↑ 75'
11
Y. Soukouna
↑ 64'
7
J. Varvat
↑ 64'
Last matches: Caen
18.07.26
Fri
Caen
Laval
4
2
W
15.07.26
Fri
Caen
Gobelins
3
4
L
09.07.26
Fri
Caen
Rennes
2
1
W
15.05.26
Nat
Caen
Aubagne
1
3
L
24.04.26
Nat
Caen
Villefranche
3
0
W
17.04.26
Nat
Caen
Bourg-en-bresse 01
2
0
W
10.04.26
Nat
Caen
Gobelins
3
0
W
03.04.26
Nat
Caen
Stade Briochin
1
1
D
27.03.26
Nat
Caen
Rouen
1
1
D
21.03.26
Nat
Caen
Orleans
1
1
D
13.03.26
Nat
Caen
Le Puy Foot
0
1
L
06.03.26
Nat
Caen
Chateauroux
2
2
D
28.02.26
Nat
Caen
Valenciennes
1
2
L
20.02.26
Nat
Caen
Sochaux
1
3
L
13.02.26
Nat
Caen
Dijon
3
3
D
06.02.26
Nat
Caen
Fleury 91
1
0
W
30.01.26
Nat
Caen
Versailles
1
2
L
23.01.26
Nat
Caen
Quevilly
0
0
D
16.01.26
Nat
Caen
Concarneau
3
3
D
05.12.25
Nat
Caen
Villefranche
1
1
D
Last matches: Concarneau
22.07.26
Fri
Concarneau
Guingamp
1
0
W
18.07.26
Fri
Concarneau
Stade Brestois 29
2
2
D
11.07.26
Fri
Concarneau
Lorient
1
2
L
15.05.26
Nat
Concarneau
Villefranche
2
2
D
30.04.26
Nat
Concarneau
Gobelins
0
0
D
24.04.26
Nat
Concarneau
Stade Briochin
2
1
W
17.04.26
Nat
Concarneau
Rouen
0
0
D
10.04.26
Nat
Concarneau
Orleans
1
1
D
03.04.26
Nat
Concarneau
Le Puy Foot
0
3
L
27.03.26
Nat
Concarneau
Chateauroux
1
3
L
20.03.26
Nat
Concarneau
Valenciennes
1
2
L
13.03.26
Nat
Concarneau
Sochaux
0
2
L
06.03.26
Nat
Concarneau
Dijon
1
1
D
27.02.26
Nat
Concarneau
Fleury 91
4
0
W
20.02.26
Nat
Concarneau
Versailles
0
2
L
12.02.26
Nat
Concarneau
Quevilly
1
2
L
06.02.26
Nat
Concarneau
Aubagne
1
0
W
30.01.26
Nat
Concarneau
Bourg-en-bresse 01
0
1
L
16.01.26
Nat
Concarneau
Caen
3
3
D
21.12.25
Cou
Concarneau
Nantes
3
5
L
H2H: Caen vs Concarneau
09.05.26
H2H
Caen
Concarneau
0
0
D
16.01.26
H2H
Concarneau
Caen
3
3
D
26.07.25
H2H
Concarneau
Caen
1
0
L
13.01.24
H2H
Caen
Concarneau
1
0
W
19.08.23
H2H
Concarneau
Caen
0
2
W
Last matches: Caen
18.07.26
Fri
Caen
Laval
4
2
W
15.07.26
Fri
Caen
Gobelins
3
4
L
24.04.26
Nat
Caen
Villefranche
3
0
W
03.04.26
Nat
Caen
Stade Briochin
1
1
D
21.03.26
Nat
Caen
Orleans
1
1
D
06.03.26
Nat
Caen
Chateauroux
2
2
D
20.02.26
Nat
Caen
Sochaux
1
3
L
06.02.26
Nat
Caen
Fleury 91
1
0
W
23.01.26
Nat
Caen
Quevilly
0
0
D
21.11.25
Nat
Caen
Bourg-en-bresse 01
1
0
W
07.11.25
Nat
Caen
Gobelins
0
0
D
21.10.25
Nat
Caen
Rouen
1
1
D
03.10.25
Nat
Caen
Le Puy Foot
2
0
W
19.09.25
Nat
Caen
Valenciennes
0
0
D
05.09.25
Nat
Caen
Dijon
0
0
D
22.08.25
Nat
Caen
Versailles
0
2
L
08.08.25
Nat
Caen
Aubagne
3
0
W
13.08.19
Cou
Caen
Nancy
0
1
L
H2H at home: Caen
09.05.26
H2H
Caen
Concarneau
0
0
D
13.01.24
H2H
Caen
Concarneau
1
0
W
Last matches: Concarneau
22.07.26
Fri
Concarneau
Guingamp
1
0
W
18.07.26
Fri
Concarneau
Stade Brestois 29
2
2
D
24.04.26
Nat
Concarneau
Stade Briochin
2
1
W
10.04.26
Nat
Concarneau
Orleans
1
1
D
27.03.26
Nat
Concarneau
Chateauroux
1
3
L
13.03.26
Nat
Concarneau
Sochaux
0
2
L
27.02.26
Nat
Concarneau
Fleury 91
4
0
W
12.02.26
Nat
Concarneau
Quevilly
1
2
L
12.12.25
Nat
Concarneau
Gobelins
0
0
D
21.11.25
Nat
Concarneau
Rouen
0
0
D
15.11.25
Cou
Concarneau
Les Bleuets
3
0
W
31.10.25
Nat
Concarneau
Le Puy Foot
1
1
D
17.10.25
Nat
Concarneau
Valenciennes
2
1
W
26.09.25
Nat
Concarneau
Dijon
0
3
L
12.09.25
Nat
Concarneau
Versailles
0
4
L
29.08.25
Nat
Concarneau
Aubagne
1
1
D
22.08.25
Nat
Concarneau
Bourg-en-bresse 01
2
0
W
08.08.25
Nat
Concarneau
Villefranche
0
0
D
H2H away: Concarneau
09.05.26
H2H
Caen
Concarneau
0
0
D
13.01.24
H2H
Caen
Concarneau
1
0
L

Standings

National
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 32 18 11 3 52:25 27 65
W W L W D
2 32 16 10 6 51:26 25 58
D L D W D
3 32 14 13 5 43:29 14 55
W L D W D
4 32 15 9 8 47:30 17 54
L L W W W
5 32 15 8 9 46:34 12 53
D W D D W
6 32 14 9 9 42:42 0 51
L W D L W
7 32 12 11 9 45:38 7 47
D L L D D
8
Caen Home
32 8 16 8 39:34 5 40
L D W W W
9 32 8 14 10 32:37 -5 38
D D D W D
10 32 10 8 14 35:44 -9 37
D L D L L
11 32 9 10 13 38:46 -8 37
W D L L L
12 32 10 7 15 34:45 -11 37
D L L W D
13 32 8 9 15 34:45 -11 33
W L D W D
14 32 7 11 14 26:41 -15 32
L D D L L
15 32 8 7 17 25:44 -19 31
W W L L L
16 32 6 13 13 35:49 -14 30
D W W L L
17 32 5 12 15 35:50 -15 27
D W W L D
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