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27.08.2026 18:45
Caen
Match Timeline
Bastia
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
3'
C. Rodrigues · Assist: F. Tomi
Bastia
🟨
27'
J. Kimboma
Caen
🟨
45'
D. Bolumbu
Caen
🟨
45'
C. Melieres
Bastia
🔄
57'
J. Kimboma ↔ M. A. El Idrissi
Caen
🔄
58'
L. Carole ↔ D. Appiah
Caen
🟨
61'
I. Monnier
Bastia
🟨
74'
L. Belal
Bastia
🔄
75'
E. Garnier ↔ D. Diarra
Bastia
🔄
75'
C. Melieres ↔ N. Douce
Bastia
🔄
78'
H. Lamouliatte ↔ F. Bomo
Caen
🔄
78'
K. Portut ↔ S. Noireau-Dauriat
Caen
🔄
85'
S. Mbaka ↔ A. Gnanduillet
Caen
🔄
85'
C. Rodrigues ↔ A. Zaouai
Bastia
🔄
85'
L. Belal ↔ D. Tamba
Bastia
🟨
90+6'
D. Appiah
Caen

Caen vs Bastia Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 51.9%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
51.9%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
78.8%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
- ▥
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
70.3%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Caen Win 51.9%
Draw 13.7%
Bastia Win 34.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Caen2.53
Bastia1.49
Recent Form (Last 5)
Caen Caen
W L W D W
13 GF / 6 GA
Bastia Bastia
L W L D L
7 GF / 11 GA
Key Stats
2.75
Average Goals Scored
1.4
1.63
Average Goals Conceded
2.2
6
BTTS Yes
3
6
Over 2.5
2
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Caen Caen 8 matches
Bastia Bastia 5 matches
Caen Statistic Bastia
5 Wins 1
1 Draws 1
2 Losses 3
22 Goals For 7
13 Goals Against 11
2.75 Avg Goals Scored 1.4
1.63 Avg Goals Conceded 2.2
6 BTTS Yes 3
7 Over 1.5 4
6 Over 2.5 2
5 Over 3.5 2
2 Clean Sheets 1
0 Failed To Score 1
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Caen won 6 times, Bastia won 4 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:14 from Caen's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (86.3%)
H2H summary: Caen wins 6, draws 5, Bastia wins 4

Standings

National
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 11 7 3 1 18:10 8 24
W L W W W
2 11 7 2 2 20:9 11 23
W L W L W
3 11 7 1 3 19:13 6 22
W W W W D
4
Caen Home
11 6 1 4 21:15 6 19
D W L W L
5 11 4 6 1 14:7 7 18
W L W D D
6 11 5 2 4 14:11 3 17
D W W L W
7 11 4 5 2 14:11 3 17
L D W D W
8 11 4 5 2 14:5 9 17
D D W D W
9 11 4 4 3 17:13 4 16
D W W L D
10 11 4 4 3 11:11 0 16
D W L W D
11 11 4 3 4 10:12 -2 15
W D D L D
12 11 3 4 4 16:17 -1 13
D L L L D
13 11 3 4 4 11:16 -5 13
L W L D D
14 11 2 4 5 10:15 -5 10
D L D D L
15 11 2 3 6 11:17 -6 9
L D L W L
16 11 2 2 7 10:24 -14 8
D W L L L
17 11 2 1 8 6:17 -11 7
L L L W L
18 11 1 2 8 5:18 -13 5
L L L D D
Promotion - Ligue 2
Promotion - Ligue 2 (Promotion)
Relegation