ENGLAND › PREMIER LEAGUE
24.05.2026 15:00
Turf Moor
Referee: A. Kitchen
Burnley
Match Timeline
Wolves
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
VAR
4'
Ladislav Krejčí
Wolves
⚽
5'
A. Armstrong
Wolves
🟨
41'
Hwang Hee-chan
Wolves
🟨
45+9'
Hannibal Mejbri
Burnley
⚽
47'
Z. Flemming · Assist: L. Tchaouna
Burnley
🔄
66'
H. Mejbri ↔ Z. Amdouni
Burnley
🔄
66'
A. Gomes ↔ T. Arokodare
Wolves
🔄
66'
L. Krejci ↔ Toti
Wolves
🔄
74'
D. M. Wolfe ↔ H. Bueno
Wolves
🔄
74'
A. Armstrong ↔ J. Abbey
Wolves
🔄
75'
L. Ugochukwu ↔ J. Ward-Prowse
Burnley
🔄
75'
L. Tchaouna ↔ M. Edwards
Burnley
🔄
82'
R. Gomes ↔ Pedro Lima
Wolves
🔄
84'
Z. Flemming ↔ A. Barnes
Burnley
🔄
84'
J. Anthony ↔ J. Bruun Larsen
Burnley
🟨
90+4'
Ashley Barnes
Burnley
🟨
90+4'
Yerson Mosquera
Wolves

Burnley vs Wolves Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 100%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 40%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 32.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
100%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
40%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
32.7%
- ▥
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
70%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-0
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Burnley Win 39.6%
Draw 60.4%
Wolves Win 0%
Expected Goals (xG)
Burnley1.37
Wolves1.3
Recent Form (Last 5)
Burnley Burnley
WWDLW
43 GF / 77 GA
Wolves Wolves
WLDWL
34 GF / 71 GA
Key Stats
1.1
Average Goals Scored
0.85
1.97
Average Goals Conceded
1.78
23
BTTS Yes
18
21
Over 2.5
19
3.1
Shots on Goal
3.33

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Burnley Burnley 39 matches
Wolves Wolves 40 matches
Burnley Statistic Wolves
5 Wins 5
9 Draws 10
25 Losses 25
43 Goals For 34
77 Goals Against 71
1.1 Avg Goals Scored 0.85
1.97 Avg Goals Conceded 1.78
23 BTTS Yes 18
33 Over 1.5 31
21 Over 2.5 19
16 Over 3.5 11
4 Clean Sheets 5
14 Failed To Score 19
3.1 Shots On Goal 3.33
9.67 Total Shots 9.85
3.69 Corners 3.3
42.8% Ball Possession 43.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Burnley expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Wolves in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Wolves having the stronger overall control. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Wolves. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.

Burnley Analysis

Burnley sit 19 with 21 points after 37 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 4 wins, 9 draws, and 24 defeats, and the 37:74 goal record continues to suggest poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Their attacking burden often falls on Z. Flemming (10 goals), J. Anthony (8 goals), J. Cullen (3 goals), with creative support from Quilindschy Hartman (5 assists), Hannibal Mejbri (4 assists), M. Edwards (3 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. At home, the split record of 2 wins, 6 draws, and 10 losses points to a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Wolves Analysis

Wolves sit 20 with 19 points after 37 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 3 wins, 10 draws, and 24 losses, together with goals at 26:67, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through J. S. Larsen (4 goals), Ladislav Krejčí (3 goals), M. Mane (3 goals), with creative support from Hwang Hee-Chan (2 assists), Adam Armstrong (2 assists), Hugo Bueno (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, the split record of 0 wins, 5 draws, and 13 losses points to a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Burnley won 5 times, Wolves won 4 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:15 from Burnley's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.13 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (100%)
Predicted formations: Burnley 4-2-3-1 / Wolves 3-4-2-1
Missing players: Burnley 2, Wolves 4
H2H summary: Burnley wins 5, draws 6, Wolves wins 4

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 26 7 5 71:27 44 85
W W W W W
2 38 23 9 6 77:35 42 78
L D W W D
3 38 20 11 7 69:50 19 71
W W D W W
4 38 19 8 11 56:49 7 65
W W D L L
5 38 17 9 12 63:53 10 60
D L D L W
6 38 13 18 7 58:54 4 57
D D W W D
7 38 14 12 12 42:48 -6 54
W W D D L
8 38 14 11 13 52:46 6 53
L L W L W
9 38 14 11 13 55:52 3 53
D D L W L
10 38 14 10 14 58:52 6 52
L W D L L
11 38 15 7 16 47:51 -4 52
W D L L W
12 38 14 7 17 53:55 -2 49
L W D W L
13 38 13 10 15 47:50 -3 49
L L D D L
14 38 11 14 13 49:56 -7 47
L W D W D
15 38 11 12 15 41:51 -10 45
L D L D L
16 38 11 11 16 48:51 -3 44
D L D W W
17 38 10 11 17 48:57 -9 41
W L D W W
18 38 10 9 19 46:65 -19 39
W L L L W
19 38 4 10 24 38:75 -37 22
D L D L L
20 38 3 11 24 27:68 -41 20
D D L D L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Championship