Burnley vs Derby Prediction & Match Analysis
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
All Markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|
Probability Distribution
Burnley Win 0%
Draw 0%
Derby Win 0%
Expected Goals (xG)
Burnley1.28
Derby1.52
Recent Form (Last 5)
Burnley
WWDLW
13 GF / 26 GA
Derby
WLDWL
13 GF / 19 GA
Key Stats
1.08
Average Goals Scored
1.08
2.17
Average Goals Conceded
1.58
11
BTTS Yes
6
8
Over 2.5
7
3.67
Shots on Goal
3.17
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Burnley
12 matches
Derby
12 matches
| Burnley | Statistic | Derby |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | Wins | 3 |
| 5 | Draws | 2 |
| 7 | Losses | 7 |
| 13 | Goals For | 13 |
| 26 | Goals Against | 19 |
| 1.08 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.08 |
| 2.17 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.58 |
| 11 | BTTS Yes | 6 |
| 11 | Over 1.5 | 10 |
| 8 | Over 2.5 | 7 |
| 6 | Over 3.5 | 3 |
| 0 | Clean Sheets | 2 |
| 1 | Failed To Score | 4 |
| 3.67 | Shots On Goal | 3.17 |
| 13.83 | Total Shots | 10.5 |
| 4.83 | Corners | 5.83 |
| 50.3% | Ball Possession | 47.8% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
H2H Analysis
Across those 11 head-to-head meetings, Burnley won 7 times, Derby won 0 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:4 from Burnley's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 1.91 goals per game.
Predicted formations: Burnley 4-2-3-1 / Derby 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Burnley wins 7, draws 4, Derby wins 0
Standings
Championship
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 14:9 | 5 | 11 |
W
W
W
D
L
|
|
| 2 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8:4 | 4 | 11 |
L
D
W
W
D
|
|
| 3 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8:5 | 3 | 10 |
W
D
W
L
W
|
|
| 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7:4 | 3 | 10 |
L
W
W
D
W
|
|
| 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9:7 | 2 | 10 |
W
W
W
D
L
|
|
| 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8:6 | 2 | 10 |
W
D
L
W
W
|
|
| 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6:7 | -1 | 10 |
L
D
W
W
W
|
|
| 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10:8 | 2 | 9 |
W
L
L
W
W
|
|
| 9 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8:8 | 0 | 9 |
W
L
W
D
D
|
|
| 10 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 13:10 | 3 | 8 |
D
L
W
W
D
|
|
| 11 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6:7 | -1 | 8 |
W
L
L
D
D
|
|
| 12 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 14:7 | 7 | 7 |
W
D
D
W
W
|
|
| 13 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 7:5 | 2 | 7 |
D
D
W
L
D
|
|
| 14 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 7:6 | 1 | 7 |
D
D
W
D
D
|
|
| 15 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9:10 | -1 | 7 |
D
W
W
L
L
|
|
| 16 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8:8 | 0 | 6 |
W
L
W
L
L
|
|
| 17 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7:8 | -1 | 6 |
W
L
L
W
L
|
|
| 18 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7:9 | -2 | 5 |
L
L
D
L
W
|
|
| 19 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4:6 | -2 | 5 |
D
D
W
L
L
|
|
| 20 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 7:10 | -3 | 4 |
D
L
L
D
D
|
|
| 21 |
Derby
Away
|
5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5:10 | -5 | 4 |
L
W
L
D
L
|
| 22 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6:12 | -6 | 4 |
L
L
L
L
D
|
|
| 23 |
Burnley
Home
|
6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 7:13 | -6 | 3 |
D
L
D
L
L
|
| 24 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 6:12 | -6 | 3 |
L
W
L
L
L
|
Promotion - Premier League
Promotion - Championship (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Promotion - Championship (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)
Relegation - League One