ENGLAND CHAMPIONSHIP
19.09.2026 14:00
Turf Moor

Burnley vs Derby Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
Probability Distribution
Burnley Win 0%
Draw 0%
Derby Win 0%
Expected Goals (xG)
Burnley1.28
Derby1.52
Recent Form (Last 5)
Burnley Burnley
WWDLW
13 GF / 26 GA
Derby Derby
WLDWL
13 GF / 19 GA
Key Stats
1.08
Average Goals Scored
1.08
2.17
Average Goals Conceded
1.58
11
BTTS Yes
6
8
Over 2.5
7
3.67
Shots on Goal
3.17

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Burnley Burnley 12 matches
Derby Derby 12 matches
Burnley Statistic Derby
0 Wins 3
5 Draws 2
7 Losses 7
13 Goals For 13
26 Goals Against 19
1.08 Avg Goals Scored 1.08
2.17 Avg Goals Conceded 1.58
11 BTTS Yes 6
11 Over 1.5 10
8 Over 2.5 7
6 Over 3.5 3
0 Clean Sheets 2
1 Failed To Score 4
3.67 Shots On Goal 3.17
13.83 Total Shots 10.5
4.83 Corners 5.83
50.3% Ball Possession 47.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

H2H Analysis

Across those 11 head-to-head meetings, Burnley won 7 times, Derby won 0 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:4 from Burnley's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 1.91 goals per game.

Predicted formations: Burnley 4-2-3-1 / Derby 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Burnley wins 7, draws 4, Derby wins 0

Standings

Championship
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 6 3 2 1 14:9 5 11
W W W D L
2 6 3 2 1 8:4 4 11
L D W W D
3 5 3 1 1 8:5 3 10
W D W L W
4 5 3 1 1 7:4 3 10
L W W D W
5 5 3 1 1 9:7 2 10
W W W D L
6 5 3 1 1 8:6 2 10
W D L W W
7 5 3 1 1 6:7 -1 10
L D W W W
8 5 3 0 2 10:8 2 9
W L L W W
9 6 2 3 1 8:8 0 9
W L W D D
10 5 2 2 1 13:10 3 8
D L W W D
11 6 2 2 2 6:7 -1 8
W L L D D
12 6 3 2 1 14:7 7 7
W D D W W
13 6 1 4 1 7:5 2 7
D D W L D
14 5 1 4 0 7:6 1 7
D D W D D
15 6 2 1 3 9:10 -1 7
D W W L L
16 5 2 0 3 8:8 0 6
W L W L L
17 5 2 0 3 7:8 -1 6
W L L W L
18 6 1 2 3 7:9 -2 5
L L D L W
19 5 1 2 2 4:6 -2 5
D D W L L
20 6 0 4 2 7:10 -3 4
D L L D D
21
Derby Away
5 1 1 3 5:10 -5 4
L W L D L
22 6 1 1 4 6:12 -6 4
L L L L D
23 6 0 3 3 7:13 -6 3
D L D L L
24 6 1 0 5 6:12 -6 3
L W L L L
Promotion - Premier League
Promotion - Championship (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Promotion - Championship (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)
Relegation - League One