Predictions & Statistics
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away Win |
88.9%
|
- | |
| BTTS | BTTS No |
30.6%
|
- | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
24.1%
|
- | |
| Corners O/U | Over 7.5 Corners |
86.8%
|
- | |
| HT / FT | Draw / Away |
-
|
- | |
| Correct Score | 0-1 |
-
|
- |
Burnley
Aston Villa
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Burnley
37 matches
Aston Villa
51 matches
| Burnley | Statistic | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Wins | 30 |
| 8 | Draws | 7 |
| 24 | Losses | 14 |
| 41 | Goals For | 79 |
| 74 | Goals Against | 56 |
| 1.11 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.55 |
| 2 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.1 |
| 22 | BTTS Yes | 26 |
| 32 | Over 1.5 | 37 |
| 20 | Over 2.5 | 26 |
| 15 | Over 3.5 | 14 |
| 4 | Clean Sheets | 17 |
| 13 | Failed To Score | 11 |
| 3.11 | Shots On Goal | 4.61 |
| 9.65 | Total Shots | 12.39 |
| 3.76 | Corners | 5.18 |
| 43.1% | Ball Possession | 53.6% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Aston Villa's more proactive style and Burnley's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Aston Villa carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 5 with 58 points while Burnley sit 19 on 20, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Burnley expected to line up in 5-4-1 and Aston Villa in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Aston Villa having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Burnley have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Aston Villa.
Burnley approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 19 with 20 points from 35 matches. The overall return of 4 wins, 8 draws, and 23 defeats with a 35:71 goal balance points toward poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Going forward they depend heavily on Z. Flemming (9 goals), J. Anthony (7 goals), J. Cullen (3 goals), with creative support from Quilindschy Hartman (5 assists), Hannibal Mejbri (3 assists), M. Edwards (3 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, they have managed 2 wins, 5 draws, and 10 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.
Aston Villa arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 5 place with 58 points after 35 matches. Their overall return of 17 wins, 7 draws, and 11 losses with goals at 48:44 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by O. Watkins (11 goals), M. Rogers (9 goals), Emiliano Buendía (6 goals), with creative support from M. Rogers (5 assists), Lucas Digne (5 assists), Y. Tielemans (4 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. Away from home, the record of 6 wins, 5 draws, and 6 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.
Across those 12 head-to-head meetings, Burnley won 2 times, Aston Villa won 5 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 16:21 from Burnley's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 3.08 goals per game.
Burnley
6
7
4
6
5
5
Lineups
Burnley
Real Salt Lake
Burnley
Columbus Crew
Burnley
FC Cincinnati
Burnley
Wolves
Burnley
Arsenal
Burnley
Leeds
Burnley
Manchester City
Burnley
Nottingham Forest
Burnley
Brighton
Burnley
Fulham
Burnley
Bournemouth
Burnley
Everton
Burnley
Brentford
Burnley
Chelsea
Burnley
Mansfield Town
Burnley
Crystal Palace
Burnley
West Ham
Burnley
Sunderland
Burnley
Tottenham
Burnley
Liverpool
Aston Villa
Manchester City
Aston Villa
SC Freiburg
Aston Villa
Liverpool
Aston Villa
Nottingham Forest
Aston Villa
Tottenham
Aston Villa
Nottingham Forest
Aston Villa
Fulham
Aston Villa
Sunderland
Aston Villa
Bologna
Aston Villa
Nottingham Forest
Aston Villa
Bologna
Aston Villa
Elche
Aston Villa
West Ham
Aston Villa
Lille
Aston Villa
Manchester United
Aston Villa
Lille
Aston Villa
Chelsea
Aston Villa
Wolves
Aston Villa
Leeds
Aston Villa
Newcastle
Burnley
Wolves
Burnley
Manchester City
Burnley
Brighton
Burnley
Bournemouth
Burnley
Brentford
Burnley
Mansfield Town
Burnley
West Ham
Burnley
Tottenham
Burnley
Millwall
Burnley
Manchester United
Burnley
Newcastle
Burnley
Everton
Burnley
Fulham
Burnley
Crystal Palace
Burnley
Chelsea
Burnley
Arsenal
Burnley
Leeds
Burnley
Nottingham Forest
Burnley
Liverpool
Burnley
Sunderland
Aston Villa
Manchester City
Aston Villa
SC Freiburg
Aston Villa
Nottingham Forest
Aston Villa
Fulham
Aston Villa
Nottingham Forest
Aston Villa
Bologna
Aston Villa
Manchester United
Aston Villa
Lille
Aston Villa
Wolves
Aston Villa
Bournemouth
Aston Villa
Newcastle
Aston Villa
Fenerbahçe
Aston Villa
Tottenham
Aston Villa
Crystal Palace
Aston Villa
Arsenal
Aston Villa
Chelsea
Aston Villa
West Ham
Aston Villa
FC Basel 1893
Aston Villa
Brighton
Aston Villa
Leeds
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 38 | 26 | 7 | 5 | 71:27 | 44 | 85 |
W
W
W
W
W
|
|
| 2 | 38 | 23 | 9 | 6 | 77:35 | 42 | 78 |
L
D
W
W
D
|
|
| 3 | 38 | 20 | 11 | 7 | 69:50 | 19 | 71 |
W
W
D
W
W
|
|
| 4 |
Aston Villa
Away
|
38 | 19 | 8 | 11 | 56:49 | 7 | 65 |
W
W
D
L
L
|
| 5 | 38 | 17 | 9 | 12 | 63:53 | 10 | 60 |
D
L
D
L
W
|
|
| 6 | 38 | 13 | 18 | 7 | 58:54 | 4 | 57 |
D
D
W
W
D
|
|
| 7 | 38 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 42:48 | -6 | 54 |
W
W
D
D
L
|
|
| 8 | 38 | 14 | 11 | 13 | 52:46 | 6 | 53 |
L
L
W
L
W
|
|
| 9 | 38 | 14 | 11 | 13 | 55:52 | 3 | 53 |
D
D
L
W
L
|
|
| 10 | 38 | 14 | 10 | 14 | 58:52 | 6 | 52 |
L
W
D
L
L
|
|
| 11 | 38 | 15 | 7 | 16 | 47:51 | -4 | 52 |
W
D
L
L
W
|
|
| 12 | 38 | 14 | 7 | 17 | 53:55 | -2 | 49 |
L
W
D
W
L
|
|
| 13 | 38 | 13 | 10 | 15 | 47:50 | -3 | 49 |
L
L
D
D
L
|
|
| 14 | 38 | 11 | 14 | 13 | 49:56 | -7 | 47 |
L
W
D
W
D
|
|
| 15 | 38 | 11 | 12 | 15 | 41:51 | -10 | 45 |
L
D
L
D
L
|
|
| 16 | 38 | 11 | 11 | 16 | 48:51 | -3 | 44 |
D
L
D
W
W
|
|
| 17 | 38 | 10 | 11 | 17 | 48:57 | -9 | 41 |
W
L
D
W
W
|
|
| 18 | 38 | 10 | 9 | 19 | 46:65 | -19 | 39 |
W
L
L
L
W
|
|
| 19 |
Burnley
Home
|
38 | 4 | 10 | 24 | 38:75 | -37 | 22 |
D
L
D
L
L
|
| 20 | 38 | 3 | 11 | 24 | 27:68 | -41 | 20 |
D
D
L
D
L
|