ENGLAND › PREMIER LEAGUE
10.05.2026 13:00
Turf Moor
Referee: A. Taylor
Burnley
Match Timeline
Aston Villa
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
8'
J. Anthony
Burnley
VAR
40'
Ollie Watkins
Aston Villa
⚽
42'
R. Barkley · Assist: J. McGinn
Aston Villa
🟨
49'
Tyrone Mings
Aston Villa
⚽
56'
O. Watkins · Assist: E. Martinez
Aston Villa
⚽
58'
Z. Flemming · Assist: H. Mejbri
Burnley
🟨
60'
Zian Flemming
Burnley
🔄
69'
H. Mejbri ↔ L. Foster
Burnley
🔄
74'
I. Maatsen ↔ L. Digne
Aston Villa
🔄
74'
V. Lindelof ↔ E. Buendia
Aston Villa
🔄
79'
L. Ugochukwu ↔ J. Laurent
Burnley
🔄
79'
Z. Flemming ↔ Z. Amdouni
Burnley
🔄
80'
R. Barkley ↔ Douglas Luiz
Aston Villa
🔄
80'
M. Cash ↔ L. Bogarde
Aston Villa
🔄
85'
J. McGinn ↔ L. Bailey
Aston Villa
🔄
87'
Florentino ↔ J. Ward-Prowse
Burnley
🔄
87'
J. Anthony ↔ J. Bruun Larsen
Burnley

Burnley vs Aston Villa Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 88.9%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 30.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 24.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
88.9%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
30.6%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
24.1%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
86.8%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 0-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Burnley Win 4.9%
Draw 6.2%
Aston Villa Win 88.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Burnley1.11
Aston Villa1.73
Recent Form (Last 5)
Burnley Burnley
WWDLW
41 GF / 74 GA
Aston Villa Aston Villa
WLDWL
79 GF / 56 GA
Key Stats
1.11
Average Goals Scored
1.55
2
Average Goals Conceded
1.1
22
BTTS Yes
26
20
Over 2.5
26
3.11
Shots on Goal
4.61

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Burnley Burnley 37 matches
Aston Villa Aston Villa 51 matches
Burnley Statistic Aston Villa
5 Wins 30
8 Draws 7
24 Losses 14
41 Goals For 79
74 Goals Against 56
1.11 Avg Goals Scored 1.55
2 Avg Goals Conceded 1.1
22 BTTS Yes 26
32 Over 1.5 37
20 Over 2.5 26
15 Over 3.5 14
4 Clean Sheets 17
13 Failed To Score 11
3.11 Shots On Goal 4.61
9.65 Total Shots 12.39
3.76 Corners 5.18
43.1% Ball Possession 53.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Aston Villa's more proactive style and Burnley's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Aston Villa carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 5 with 58 points while Burnley sit 19 on 20, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Burnley expected to line up in 5-4-1 and Aston Villa in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Aston Villa having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Burnley have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Aston Villa.

Burnley Analysis

Burnley approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 19 with 20 points from 35 matches. The overall return of 4 wins, 8 draws, and 23 defeats with a 35:71 goal balance points toward poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Going forward they depend heavily on Z. Flemming (9 goals), J. Anthony (7 goals), J. Cullen (3 goals), with creative support from Quilindschy Hartman (5 assists), Hannibal Mejbri (3 assists), M. Edwards (3 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, they have managed 2 wins, 5 draws, and 10 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Aston Villa Analysis

Aston Villa arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 5 place with 58 points after 35 matches. Their overall return of 17 wins, 7 draws, and 11 losses with goals at 48:44 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by O. Watkins (11 goals), M. Rogers (9 goals), Emiliano Buendía (6 goals), with creative support from M. Rogers (5 assists), Lucas Digne (5 assists), Y. Tielemans (4 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. Away from home, the record of 6 wins, 5 draws, and 6 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 12 head-to-head meetings, Burnley won 2 times, Aston Villa won 5 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 16:21 from Burnley's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 3.08 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: X2 (95.1%)
Predicted formations: Burnley 5-4-1 / Aston Villa 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Burnley 3, Aston Villa 3
H2H summary: Burnley wins 2, draws 5, Aston Villa wins 5

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 26 7 5 71:27 44 85
W W W W W
2 38 23 9 6 77:35 42 78
L D W W D
3 38 20 11 7 69:50 19 71
W W D W W
4 38 19 8 11 56:49 7 65
W W D L L
5 38 17 9 12 63:53 10 60
D L D L W
6 38 13 18 7 58:54 4 57
D D W W D
7 38 14 12 12 42:48 -6 54
W W D D L
8 38 14 11 13 52:46 6 53
L L W L W
9 38 14 11 13 55:52 3 53
D D L W L
10 38 14 10 14 58:52 6 52
L W D L L
11 38 15 7 16 47:51 -4 52
W D L L W
12 38 14 7 17 53:55 -2 49
L W D W L
13 38 13 10 15 47:50 -3 49
L L D D L
14 38 11 14 13 49:56 -7 47
L W D W D
15 38 11 12 15 41:51 -10 45
L D L D L
16 38 11 11 16 48:51 -3 44
D L D W W
17 38 10 11 17 48:57 -9 41
W L D W W
18 38 10 9 19 46:65 -19 39
W L L L W
19 38 4 10 24 38:75 -37 22
D L D L L
20 38 3 11 24 27:68 -41 20
D D L D L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Championship