SPAIN SEGUNDA DIVISIóN
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Municipal de El Plantío
Referee: S. Lax
Burgos
Match Timeline
Almeria
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
-5'
Mario Cantero
Burgos
🟨
19'
Miguel Atienza
Burgos
🟨
29'
Miguel de la Fuente
Almeria
🟨
45'
Álex Muñoz
Almeria
🟨
54'
Dion Lopy
Almeria
🟨
59'
Léo Baptistão
Almeria
🔄
62'
A. Embarba ↔ J. Morcillo
Almeria
VAR
70'
Víctor Mollejo
Burgos
🔄
74'
Curro ↔ M. Gonzalez
Burgos
🔄
74'
V. Mollejo ↔ K. Appin
Burgos
🔄
80'
M. de la Fuente ↔ Thalys
Almeria
🔄
80'
S. Arribas ↔ N. Melamed
Almeria
🔄
81'
I. Cordoba ↔ D. Gonzalez Ballesteros
Burgos
🔄
90+6'
↔ M. Mejia
Burgos
🔄
90'
Leo Baptistao ↔ A. Puigmal
Almeria
🔄
90'
M. Luna ↔ D. Chirino
Almeria

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 56.8%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 90.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 81.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
56.8%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
90.5%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
81.9%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
69.6%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Burgos Win 56.8%
Draw 4%
Almeria Win 39.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Burgos1.31
Almeria1.57
Recent Form (Last 5)
Burgos Burgos
WWDLW
50 GF / 37 GA
Almeria Almeria
WLDWL
81 GF / 60 GA
Key Stats
1.19
Average Goals Scored
2.03
0.88
Average Goals Conceded
1.5
18
BTTS Yes
29
15
Over 2.5
29
2.93
Shots on Goal
5.54

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Burgos Burgos 42 matches
Almeria Almeria 40 matches
Burgos Statistic Almeria
20 Wins 22
11 Draws 7
11 Losses 11
50 Goals For 81
37 Goals Against 60
1.19 Avg Goals Scored 2.03
0.88 Avg Goals Conceded 1.5
18 BTTS Yes 29
25 Over 1.5 35
15 Over 2.5 29
7 Over 3.5 17
16 Clean Sheets 8
14 Failed To Score 4
2.93 Shots On Goal 5.54
9.31 Total Shots 14.85
3.57 Corners 4.74
44.6% Ball Possession 51.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Almeria. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Almeria look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Burgos expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Almeria in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Almeria having the stronger overall control.

Burgos Analysis

Burgos are currently 7 in the standings with 62 points from 38 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 17 wins, 11 draws, and 10 losses, while the 44:33 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on D. Gonzalez Ballesteros (9 goals), F. Nino (7 goals), Curro (6 goals), with creative support from D. Gonzalez Ballesteros (5 assists), Curro (4 assists), Iván Morante (4 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, they have returned 9 wins, 7 draws, and 3 losses, a split that suggests a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Almeria Analysis

Almeria approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 2 on 70 points after 38 outings. The return of 21 wins, 7 draws, and 10 defeats, together with goals at 78:58, reflects very strong form and are on a winning streak. Much of their attacking edge comes through S. Arribas (24 goals), A. Embarba (14 goals), Leo Baptistao (9 goals), with creative support from A. Embarba (9 assists), S. Arribas (7 assists), A. Munoz (6 assists), while their defending has remained quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have managed 7 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 6 head-to-head meetings, Burgos won 2 times, Almeria won 3 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 5:8 from Burgos's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 2.17 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96%)
Predicted formations: Burgos 4-4-2 / Almeria 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Burgos wins 2, draws 1, Almeria wins 3
Stats
Burgos Burgos
Almeria Almeria
Shots on Goal
5
Shots on Goal
4
Shots off Goal
12
Shots off Goal
11
Blocked Shots
3
Blocked Shots
5
10 Corner Kicks 4
7 Fouls 9
2 Offsides 1
54% Ball Possession 46%
20 Total Shots 20
5 Shots on Goal 4
12 Shots off Goal 11
3 Blocked Shots 5
14 Shots insidebox 11
6 Shots outsidebox 9
4 Goalkeeper Saves 5
411 Total passes 346
328 Passes accurate 268
0 expected_goals 0
🟨 2 Yellow Cards 4 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Burgos
Formation
Almeria
A. Cantero
A. Cantero
A. Lizancos
A. Lizancos
S. Gonzalez
S. Gonzalez
G. Sierra
G. Sierra
F. Miguel
F. Miguel
V. Mollejo
V. Mollejo
I. Morante
I. Morante
M. Atienza
M. Atienza
I. Cordoba
I. Cordoba
F. Nino
F. Nino
Curro
Curro
A. Fernandez
A. Fernandez
M. Luna
M. Luna
Rodrigo Ely
Rodrigo Ely
F. Bonini
F. Bonini
A. Munoz
A. Munoz
D. Lopy
D. Lopy
S. Dzodic
S. Dzodic
Leo Baptistao
Leo Baptistao
S. Arribas
S. Arribas
A. Embarba
A. Embarba
M. de la Fuente
M. de la Fuente
Burgos 4-4-2
Starting XI
13
A. Cantero
G
2
A. Lizancos
D
6
S. Gonzalez
D
8
G. Sierra
D
12
F. Miguel
D
11
V. Mollejo
↓ 74'
M
23
I. Morante
M
5
M. Atienza
🟨 19'
M
21
I. Cordoba
↓ 81'
M
9
F. Nino
F
16
Curro
↓ 74'
F
Substitutes
1
J. Ruiz
G
15
A. Bunuel
D
3
O. Luengo
D
14
D. Gonzalez Ballesteros
↑ 81'
M
28
S. del Cerro
M
20
M. Gonzalez
↑ 74'
F
4
P. Galdames
M
10
K. Appin
↑ 74'
M
7
M. Mejia
↑ 90+6'
F
22
B. Martinez
D
33
M. Exposito
M
17
M. Cantero
🟨 -5'
M
Almeria 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
A. Fernandez
G
16
M. Luna
↓ 90'
D
5
Rodrigo Ely
D
18
F. Bonini
D
3
A. Munoz
🟨 45'
D
17
D. Lopy
🟨 54'
M
29
S. Dzodic
M
12
Leo Baptistao
↓ 90' 🟨 59'
M
11
S. Arribas
↓ 80'
M
23
A. Embarba
↓ 62'
M
24
M. de la Fuente
↓ 80' 🟨 29'
F
Substitutes
13
F. Martinez
G
21
Chumi
D
2
A. Puigmal
↑ 90'
M
22
D. Chirino
↑ 90'
D
9
Thalys
↑ 80'
F
4
N. Monte
D
6
A. Horta
M
7
J. Morcillo
↑ 62'
F
19
P. Soko
F
20
A. Centelles
D
10
N. Melamed
↑ 80'
M
8
Gui Guedes
M
Last matches: Burgos
18.07.26
Fri
Burgos
Real Sociedad II
2
0
W
31.05.26
Seg
Burgos
FC Andorra
1
0
W
24.05.26
Seg
Burgos
Cultural Leonesa
2
0
W
16.05.26
Seg
Burgos
Granada CF
1
0
W
03.05.26
Seg
Burgos
Real Sociedad II
0
0
D
25.04.26
Seg
Burgos
Deportivo La Coruna
1
1
D
18.04.26
Seg
Burgos
Castellón
1
3
L
11.04.26
Seg
Burgos
Sporting Gijon
1
0
W
04.04.26
Seg
Burgos
Albacete
3
2
W
01.04.26
Seg
Burgos
AD Ceuta FC
1
1
D
28.03.26
Seg
Burgos
Valladolid
1
0
W
22.03.26
Seg
Burgos
Cordoba
4
0
W
15.03.26
Seg
Burgos
Eibar
0
0
D
07.03.26
Seg
Burgos
Mirandes
2
0
W
28.02.26
Seg
Burgos
Zaragoza
1
0
W
22.02.26
Seg
Burgos
Racing Santander
0
1
L
14.02.26
Seg
Burgos
Cadiz
1
1
D
07.02.26
Seg
Burgos
Las Palmas
0
0
D
31.01.26
Seg
Burgos
Leganes
2
1
W
23.01.26
Seg
Burgos
Malaga
0
3
L
Last matches: Almeria
20.06.26
Seg
Almeria
Malaga
1
2
L
14.06.26
Seg
Almeria
Malaga
0
0
D
09.06.26
Seg
Almeria
Castellón
3
2
W
06.06.26
Seg
Almeria
Castellón
1
1
D
31.05.26
Seg
Almeria
Valladolid
1
0
W
24.05.26
Seg
Almeria
Sporting Gijon
1
3
L
16.05.26
Seg
Almeria
Las Palmas
1
2
L
04.05.26
Seg
Almeria
Mirandes
4
2
W
26.04.26
Seg
Almeria
Granada CF
4
2
W
19.04.26
Seg
Almeria
Malaga
3
2
W
12.04.26
Seg
Almeria
Racing Santander
1
5
L
05.04.26
Seg
Almeria
Leganes
2
1
W
02.04.26
Seg
Almeria
Castellón
0
2
L
29.03.26
Seg
Almeria
Real Sociedad II
5
1
W
20.03.26
Seg
Almeria
Huesca
3
1
W
14.03.26
Seg
Almeria
Zaragoza
0
2
L
09.03.26
Seg
Almeria
Cultural Leonesa
3
0
W
27.02.26
Seg
Almeria
Albacete
1
1
D
21.02.26
Seg
Almeria
Cordoba
2
1
W
13.02.26
Seg
Almeria
FC Andorra
3
2
W
H2H: Burgos vs Almeria
09.05.26
H2H
Burgos
Almeria
0
0
D
14.12.25
H2H
Almeria
Burgos
1
2
W
21.03.25
H2H
Burgos
Almeria
3
1
W
05.10.24
H2H
Almeria
Burgos
2
0
L
30.04.22
H2H
Burgos
Almeria
0
2
L
07.11.21
H2H
Almeria
Burgos
2
0
L
Last matches: Burgos
18.07.26
Fri
Burgos
Real Sociedad II
2
0
W
31.05.26
Seg
Burgos
FC Andorra
1
0
W
25.04.26
Seg
Burgos
Deportivo La Coruna
1
1
D
11.04.26
Seg
Burgos
Sporting Gijon
1
0
W
01.04.26
Seg
Burgos
AD Ceuta FC
1
1
D
22.03.26
Seg
Burgos
Cordoba
4
0
W
07.03.26
Seg
Burgos
Mirandes
2
0
W
14.02.26
Seg
Burgos
Cadiz
1
1
D
31.01.26
Seg
Burgos
Leganes
2
1
W
18.01.26
Seg
Burgos
Huesca
1
0
W
15.01.26
Cop
Burgos
Valencia
0
2
L
10.01.26
Seg
Burgos
Eibar
1
0
W
21.12.25
Seg
Burgos
Zaragoza
1
1
D
18.12.25
Cop
Burgos
Getafe
3
1
W
08.12.25
Seg
Burgos
Albacete
0
1
L
23.11.25
Seg
Burgos
Racing Santander
0
2
L
10.11.25
Seg
Burgos
Castellón
0
0
D
25.10.25
Seg
Burgos
Real Sociedad II
1
0
W
12.10.25
Seg
Burgos
Valladolid
0
1
L
28.09.25
Seg
Burgos
Malaga
2
1
W
H2H at home: Burgos
09.05.26
H2H
Burgos
Almeria
0
0
D
21.03.25
H2H
Burgos
Almeria
3
1
W
30.04.22
H2H
Burgos
Almeria
0
2
L
Last matches: Almeria
14.06.26
Seg
Almeria
Malaga
0
0
D
06.06.26
Seg
Almeria
Castellón
1
1
D
24.05.26
Seg
Almeria
Sporting Gijon
1
3
L
26.04.26
Seg
Almeria
Granada CF
4
2
W
12.04.26
Seg
Almeria
Racing Santander
1
5
L
02.04.26
Seg
Almeria
Castellón
0
2
L
20.03.26
Seg
Almeria
Huesca
3
1
W
14.03.26
Seg
Almeria
Zaragoza
0
2
L
27.02.26
Seg
Almeria
Albacete
1
1
D
08.02.26
Seg
Almeria
Cadiz
2
1
W
25.01.26
Seg
Almeria
Eibar
0
1
L
10.01.26
Seg
Almeria
Mirandes
2
2
D
21.12.25
Seg
Almeria
Malaga
1
2
L
06.12.25
Seg
Almeria
FC Andorra
2
1
W
03.12.25
Cop
Almeria
Eldense
1
2
L
26.11.25
Seg
Almeria
AD Ceuta FC
2
3
L
22.11.25
Seg
Almeria
Leganes
3
0
W
29.10.25
Cop
Almeria
Lorca Deportiva
2
0
W
19.10.25
Seg
Almeria
Cordoba
1
1
D
04.10.25
Seg
Almeria
Deportivo La Coruna
1
1
D
H2H away: Almeria
09.05.26
H2H
Burgos
Almeria
0
0
D
21.03.25
H2H
Burgos
Almeria
3
1
L
30.04.22
H2H
Burgos
Almeria
0
2
W

Standings

Segunda División
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 42 25 7 10 90:61 29 82
W D W W W
2 42 22 11 9 65:44 21 77
L W W W W
3 42 22 8 12 81:63 18 74
L D W D W
4 42 21 10 11 75:52 23 73
W D D W W
5 42 20 13 9 57:40 17 73
D L W D W
6 42 20 12 10 70:51 19 72
L D W W D
7 42 20 12 10 48:33 15 72
W W W D D
8 42 19 10 13 52:40 12 67
L W L W L
9 42 18 7 17 60:54 6 61
W W W L L
10 42 17 10 15 57:61 -4 61
D L L W W
11 42 17 10 15 51:63 -12 61
W W L D W
12 42 16 11 15 56:55 1 59
L W W W W
13 42 16 10 16 62:54 8 58
L L L W L
14 42 12 12 18 50:56 -6 48
L L L L W
15 42 12 11 19 52:61 -9 47
D L D W D
16 42 11 13 18 43:51 -8 46
W L D L L
17 42 12 10 20 44:57 -13 46
L L L W L
18 42 11 10 21 41:61 -20 43
L W D L D
19 42 10 10 22 47:69 -22 40
L W D L L
20 42 9 11 22 41:63 -22 38
D L D L L
21 42 9 10 23 39:68 -29 37
D L W L D
22 42 8 12 22 35:59 -24 36
L D L L L
Promotion
Promotion Play-offs
Relegation