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14.11.2026 15:00
Memorial Stadium

Bristol Rovers vs Chesterfield Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 63.9%
Odds 1.53
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds 1.62
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds 1.75
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
63.9%
1.53 ▥
BTTS Yes
71.2%
1.62 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
1.75 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.80 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
4.75 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
11.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Bristol Rovers Win 38.2%
Draw 25.7%
Chesterfield Win 36.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Bristol Rovers1.56
Chesterfield1.86
Recent Form (Last 5)
Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers
D W L D L
6 GF / 7 GA
Chesterfield Chesterfield
W W L W D
16 GF / 12 GA
Key Stats
1.48
Average Goals Scored
2
1.65
Average Goals Conceded
1.67
13
BTTS Yes
16
14
Over 2.5
12
4.5
Shots on Goal
6

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 23 matches
Chesterfield Chesterfield 21 matches
Bristol Rovers Statistic Chesterfield
8 Wins 8
5 Draws 7
10 Losses 6
34 Goals For 42
38 Goals Against 35
1.48 Avg Goals Scored 2
1.65 Avg Goals Conceded 1.67
13 BTTS Yes 16
19 Over 1.5 17
14 Over 2.5 12
10 Over 3.5 9
7 Clean Sheets 3
4 Failed To Score 3
4.5 Shots On Goal 6
15.11 Total Shots 16.61
5.67 Corners 6
48.1% Ball Possession 58.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights Chesterfield's more proactive style and Bristol Rovers's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Chesterfield. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Bristol Rovers have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Bristol Rovers expected to line up in 3-4-1-2 and Chesterfield in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Chesterfield having the stronger overall control.

Bristol Rovers Analysis

With 16 points from 14 games and a place of 17, Bristol Rovers still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 5 wins, 1 draws, and 8 losses, together with goals at 17:23, reflects poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Much of their threat comes through F. Cavegn (3 goals), B. Kamwa (3 goals), T. James (1 goals), with creative support from C. Mola (2 assists), T. James (1 assists), R. Russell-Denny (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, the split record of 4 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Chesterfield Analysis

Chesterfield sit 10 with 19 points after 14 league matches. The record of 5 wins, 4 draws, and 5 defeats, together with a 24:21 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through L. Marsh (5 goals), L. Bonis (4 goals), D. Markanday (4 goals), with creative support from L. Bonis (2 assists), L. Mandeville (2 assists), F. Bryden (2 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, their split return of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 9 head-to-head meetings, Bristol Rovers won 3 times, Chesterfield won 5 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 13:17 from Bristol Rovers's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 3.33 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (74.3%)
Predicted formations: Bristol Rovers 3-4-1-2 / Chesterfield 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Bristol Rovers wins 3, draws 1, Chesterfield wins 5

Standings

League Two
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 14 10 1 3 25:15 10 31
W W W W W
2 13 7 5 1 28:18 10 26
D W D L W
3 13 5 7 1 21:12 9 22
W L W D D
4 14 5 7 2 17:17 0 22
D L L W W
5 14 6 3 5 23:25 -2 21
L W W L L
6 14 5 5 4 24:18 6 20
W W D L L
7 14 5 5 4 24:21 3 20
L L W D D
8 14 5 5 4 20:19 1 20
W L D L W
9 14 4 7 3 23:17 6 19
D W D W D
10 14 5 4 5 24:21 3 19
L W D L D
11 14 4 7 3 19:17 2 19
W D W L D
12 14 5 4 5 11:9 2 19
L W W D W
13 14 5 4 5 15:17 -2 19
W D W D L
14 14 4 6 4 20:17 3 18
W L D D W
15 14 5 3 6 17:22 -5 18
L D W W L
16 14 4 5 5 18:18 0 17
W L L W D
17 14 5 1 8 17:23 -6 16
L D L L L
18 14 4 3 7 15:19 -4 15
W L D L W
19 12 4 3 5 10:14 -4 15
W L D W W
20 14 4 3 7 17:26 -9 15
L L D L D
21 13 3 5 5 9:10 -1 14
L D W L W
22 14 2 6 6 18:25 -7 12
L D D L L
23 13 2 6 5 12:19 -7 12
L L D D L
24 12 2 3 7 13:21 -8 9
W D L L D
Promotion - League One
Promotion - League Two (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Relegation - National League