ENGLAND CHAMPIONSHIP
02.05.2026 11:30
Ashton Gate Stadium
Referee: B. Toner
Bristol City
Match Timeline
Stoke City
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
1'
D. Burgzorg
Bristol City
🟨
35'
Ben Pearson
Stoke City
🔄
46'
B. Pearson ↔ T. Seko
Stoke City
🔄
59'
L. Cisse ↔ S. Gallagher
Stoke City
🔄
59'
J. Bae ↔ J. Rak-Sakyi
Stoke City
🟨
60'
Junior Tchamadeu
Stoke City
🟨
63'
Ross McCrorie
Bristol City
🔄
71'
J. Tchamadeu ↔ S. Agina
Stoke City
🔄
74'
S. Morsy ↔ M. Sykes
Bristol City
🔄
81'
T. Horvat ↔ S. Bell
Bristol City
🔄
84'
D. Burgzorg ↔ E. Riis
Bristol City
🔄
87'
M. Manhoef ↔ M. Smit
Stoke City
88'
S. Bell · Assist: R. Dickie
Bristol City
🟨
90+5'
Jesurun Rak-Sakyi
Stoke City

Bristol City vs Stoke City Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 76%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 25.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 24.8%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
76%
-
BTTS BTTS No
25.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
24.8%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
89.8%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Bristol City Win 76%
Draw 17.1%
Stoke City Win 6.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Bristol City1.27
Stoke City1.2
Recent Form (Last 5)
Bristol City Bristol City
WWDLW
62 GF / 61 GA
Stoke City Stoke City
WLDWL
53 GF / 56 GA
Key Stats
1.32
Average Goals Scored
1.13
1.3
Average Goals Conceded
1.19
22
BTTS Yes
21
22
Over 2.5
21
4.09
Shots on Goal
3.79

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Bristol City Bristol City 47 matches
Stoke City Stoke City 47 matches
Bristol City Statistic Stoke City
17 Wins 16
11 Draws 10
19 Losses 21
62 Goals For 53
61 Goals Against 56
1.32 Avg Goals Scored 1.13
1.3 Avg Goals Conceded 1.19
22 BTTS Yes 21
33 Over 1.5 32
22 Over 2.5 21
13 Over 3.5 9
13 Clean Sheets 14
16 Failed To Score 16
4.09 Shots On Goal 3.79
12.26 Total Shots 11.13
4.98 Corners 5.7
49.9% Ball Possession 51.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Stoke City arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Stoke City. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances.

Bristol City Analysis

Bristol City are currently 13 in the standings with 59 points from 45 matches. The record of 16 wins, 11 draws, and 18 defeats, together with a 57:59 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through S. Twine (11 goals), A. Mehmeti (10 goals), E. Riis (9 goals), with creative support from S. Twine (7 assists), A. Mehmeti (7 assists), R. McCrorie (6 assists), while at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, their split return of 8 wins, 4 draws, and 10 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Stoke City Analysis

Stoke City approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 17 with 55 points from 45 matches. The overall return of 15 wins, 10 draws, and 20 defeats with a 51:54 goal balance points toward poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Going forward they depend heavily on S. Thomas (10 goals), M. Manhoef (7 goals), D. Mubama (5 goals), with creative support from S. Thomas (11 assists), M. Manhoef (3 assists), Lamine Cissé (3 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have managed 6 wins, 4 draws, and 12 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Bristol City won 8 times, Stoke City won 5 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 21:21 from Bristol City's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.8 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (93.1%)
Predicted formations: Bristol City 4-2-3-1 / Stoke City 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Bristol City wins 8, draws 2, Stoke City wins 5

Standings

Championship
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 46 28 11 7 97:45 52 95
W W W D D
2 46 23 15 8 80:47 33 84
W D D W D
3 46 24 11 11 64:49 15 83
L D W D W
4 46 22 14 10 82:56 26 80
W D W D D
5 46 22 14 10 72:47 25 80
L L D D W
6 46 21 10 15 70:66 4 73
W W D W L
7 46 19 14 13 69:65 4 71
D L W W L
8 46 20 9 17 67:59 8 69
L W L W L
9 46 19 8 19 63:56 7 65
L D W W L
10 46 17 13 16 57:56 1 64
D W W D W
11 46 18 10 18 57:59 -2 64
W D W L W
12 46 17 11 18 59:59 0 62
W L D L D
13 46 18 6 22 66:66 0 60
W L L W W
14 46 15 15 16 55:62 -7 60
L W L L W
15 46 16 10 20 61:73 -12 58
L L L L D
16 46 14 15 17 53:65 -12 57
L L L L L
17 46 15 10 21 51:56 -5 55
L L L L D
18 46 14 13 19 49:64 -15 55
D W L W W
19 46 13 14 19 44:58 -14 53
L W L D L
20 46 13 13 20 42:56 -14 52
L W D L D
21 46 13 14 19 48:58 -10 51
L D W W D
22 46 11 14 21 45:59 -14 47
L W L L W
23 46 12 16 18 58:68 -10 46
W D D L L
24 46 2 12 32 29:89 -60 0
W L L D D
Promotion
Promotion Playoffs
Relegation