ENGLAND PREMIER LEAGUE
--.--.---- --:--
Amex Stadium
Referee: S. Barrott
Brighton
Match Timeline
Manchester United
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
33'
P. Dorgu · Assist: B. Fernandes
Manchester United
44'
B. Mbeumo · Assist: A. Diallo
Manchester United
🟨
45+3'
Kobbie Mainoo
Manchester United
🔄
46'
M. De Cuyper ↔ Y. Minteh
Brighton
48'
B. Fernandes · Assist: P. Dorgu
Manchester United
VAR
50'
Bruno Fernandes
Manchester United
🔄
59'
D. Gomez ↔ S. March
Brighton
🔄
59'
J. Milner ↔ C. Baleba
Brighton
🔄
59'
D. Welbeck ↔ C. Kostoulas
Brighton
🔄
62'
P. Dorgu ↔ S. Lacey
Manchester United
🔄
74'
J. Hinshelwood ↔ G. Rutter
Brighton
🔄
74'
B. Mbeumo ↔ J. Zirkzee
Manchester United
🔄
74'
N. Mazraoui ↔ L. Yoro
Manchester United
🔄
74'
M. Mount ↔ T. Fletcher
Manchester United
🔄
82'
L. Shaw ↔ T. Malacia
Manchester United

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 55.3%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 78.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 81.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
55.3%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
78.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
81.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Brighton Win 55.3%
Draw 0%
Manchester United Win 44.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Brighton1.38
Manchester United1.54
Recent Form (Last 5)
Brighton Brighton
WWDLW
54 GF / 47 GA
Manchester United Manchester United
WLDWL
67 GF / 52 GA
Key Stats
1.38
Average Goals Scored
1.76
1.21
Average Goals Conceded
1.37
22
BTTS Yes
28
20
Over 2.5
24
4.64
Shots on Goal
5.71

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Brighton Brighton 39 matches
Manchester United Manchester United 38 matches
Brighton Statistic Manchester United
15 Wins 19
11 Draws 11
13 Losses 8
54 Goals For 67
47 Goals Against 52
1.38 Avg Goals Scored 1.76
1.21 Avg Goals Conceded 1.37
22 BTTS Yes 28
32 Over 1.5 32
20 Over 2.5 24
7 Over 3.5 14
10 Clean Sheets 7
9 Failed To Score 4
4.64 Shots On Goal 5.71
13.13 Total Shots 15.89
4.92 Corners 4.84
53.8% Ball Possession 52.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Manchester United look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Manchester United.

Brighton Analysis

From their first 37 matches, Brighton have collected 53 points and now occupy 7 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 14 wins, 11 draws, and 12 losses, while the 52:43 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on D. Welbeck (13 goals), Diego Gómez (5 goals), J. Hinshelwood (5 goals), with creative support from Y. Minteh (4 assists), J. Hinshelwood (3 assists), Georginio Rutter (3 assists), and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 9 wins, 6 draws, and 3 losses, a split that suggests a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Manchester United Analysis

Operating from 3 place with 68 points from 37 games, Manchester United bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. They have recorded 19 wins, 11 draws, and 7 losses, with a 66:50 goal return and very strong form with results showing strong momentum. In attack they lean heavily on B. Sesko (11 goals), B. Mbeumo (10 goals), M. Cunha (10 goals), with creative support from Bruno Fernandes (20 assists), B. Mbeumo (3 assists), Patrick Dorgu (3 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have managed 6 wins, 8 draws, and 4 losses, which underlines a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Brighton won 7 times, Manchester United won 7 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 22:24 from Brighton's perspective. 11 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 3.07 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Brighton 4-2-3-1 / Manchester United 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Brighton 3, Manchester United 3
H2H summary: Brighton wins 7, draws 1, Manchester United wins 7
Stats
Brighton Brighton
Manchester United Manchester United
Shots on Goal
2
Shots on Goal
7
Shots off Goal
6
Shots off Goal
3
Blocked Shots
5
Blocked Shots
1
0 Corner Kicks 3
11 Fouls 8
1 Offsides 0
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Goal 7
6 Shots off Goal 3
5 Blocked Shots 1
9 Shots insidebox 7
4 Shots outsidebox 4
5 Goalkeeper Saves 2
484 Total passes 450
415 Passes accurate 372
0.79 expected_goals 1.66
🟨 0 Yellow Cards 1 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Brighton
Formation
Manchester United
B. Verbruggen
B. Verbruggen
M. Wieffer
M. Wieffer
J. P. van Hecke
J. P. van Hecke
L. Dunk
L. Dunk
F. Kadioglu
F. Kadioglu
P. Gross
P. Gross
J. Milner
J. Milner
D. Gomez
D. Gomez
J. Hinshelwood
J. Hinshelwood
M. De Cuyper
M. De Cuyper
D. Welbeck
D. Welbeck
S. Lammens
S. Lammens
N. Mazraoui
N. Mazraoui
H. Maguire
H. Maguire
L. Martinez
L. Martinez
L. Shaw
L. Shaw
M. Mount
M. Mount
K. Mainoo
K. Mainoo
A. Diallo
🎯
A. Diallo
B. Fernandes
🎯
B. Fernandes
P. Dorgu
🎯
P. Dorgu
B. Mbeumo
B. Mbeumo
Brighton 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
B. Verbruggen
G
27
M. Wieffer
D
6
J. P. van Hecke
D
5
L. Dunk
D
24
F. Kadioglu
D
30
P. Gross
M
20
J. Milner
↓ 59'
M
25
D. Gomez
↓ 59'
M
13
J. Hinshelwood
↓ 74'
M
29
M. De Cuyper
↓ 46'
M
18
D. Welbeck
↓ 59'
F
Substitutes
23
J. Steele
G
34
J. Veltman
D
7
S. March
↑ 59'
M
21
O. Boscagli
D
33
M. O'Riley
M
17
C. Baleba
↑ 59'
M
19
C. Kostoulas
↑ 59'
F
10
G. Rutter
↑ 74'
F
11
Y. Minteh
↑ 46'
F
Manchester United 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
31
S. Lammens
G
3
N. Mazraoui
↓ 74'
D
5
H. Maguire
D
6
L. Martinez
D
23
L. Shaw
↓ 82'
D
7
M. Mount
↓ 74'
M
37
K. Mainoo
🟨 45+3'
M
16
A. Diallo
🎯 44'
M
8
B. Fernandes
⚽ 48' 🎯 33'
M
13
P. Dorgu
⚽ 33' 🎯 48' ↓ 62'
M
19
B. Mbeumo
⚽ 44' ↓ 74'
F
Substitutes
1
A. Bayindir
G
11
J. Zirkzee
↑ 74'
F
12
T. Malacia
↑ 82'
D
10
M. Cunha
F
25
M. Ugarte
M
15
L. Yoro
↑ 74'
D
39
T. Fletcher
↑ 74'
M
61
S. Lacey
↑ 62'
F
26
A. Heaven
D
Last matches: Brighton
17.05.26
Pre
Brighton
Leeds
0
1
L
09.05.26
Pre
Brighton
Wolves
3
0
W
02.05.26
Pre
Brighton
Newcastle
1
3
L
21.04.26
Pre
Brighton
Chelsea
3
0
W
18.04.26
Pre
Brighton
Tottenham
2
2
D
11.04.26
Pre
Brighton
Burnley
2
0
W
21.03.26
Pre
Brighton
Liverpool
2
1
W
14.03.26
Pre
Brighton
Sunderland
1
0
W
04.03.26
Pre
Brighton
Arsenal
0
1
L
01.03.26
Pre
Brighton
Nottingham Forest
2
1
W
21.02.26
Pre
Brighton
Brentford
2
0
W
14.02.26
FA
Brighton
Liverpool
0
3
L
11.02.26
Pre
Brighton
Aston Villa
0
1
L
08.02.26
Pre
Brighton
Crystal Palace
0
1
L
31.01.26
Pre
Brighton
Everton
1
1
D
24.01.26
Pre
Brighton
Fulham
1
2
L
19.01.26
Pre
Brighton
Bournemouth
1
1
D
11.01.26
FA
Brighton
Manchester United
2
1
W
07.01.26
Pre
Brighton
Manchester City
1
1
D
03.01.26
Pre
Brighton
Burnley
2
0
W
Last matches: Manchester United
24.07.26
Fri
Manchester United
Rosenborg
5
0
W
18.07.26
Fri
Manchester United
Wrexham
0
1
L
17.05.26
Pre
Manchester United
Nottingham Forest
3
2
W
09.05.26
Pre
Manchester United
Sunderland
0
0
D
03.05.26
Pre
Manchester United
Liverpool
3
2
W
27.04.26
Pre
Manchester United
Brentford
2
1
W
18.04.26
Pre
Manchester United
Chelsea
1
0
W
13.04.26
Pre
Manchester United
Leeds
1
2
L
20.03.26
Pre
Manchester United
Bournemouth
2
2
D
15.03.26
Pre
Manchester United
Aston Villa
3
1
W
04.03.26
Pre
Manchester United
Newcastle
1
2
L
01.03.26
Pre
Manchester United
Crystal Palace
2
1
W
23.02.26
Pre
Manchester United
Everton
1
0
W
10.02.26
Pre
Manchester United
West Ham
1
1
D
07.02.26
Pre
Manchester United
Tottenham
2
0
W
01.02.26
Pre
Manchester United
Fulham
3
2
W
25.01.26
Pre
Manchester United
Arsenal
3
2
W
17.01.26
Pre
Manchester United
Manchester City
2
0
W
11.01.26
FA
Manchester United
Brighton
1
2
L
07.01.26
Pre
Manchester United
Burnley
2
2
D
H2H: Brighton vs Manchester United
24.05.26
H2H
Brighton
Manchester United
0
3
L
11.01.26
H2H
Manchester United
Brighton
1
2
W
25.10.25
H2H
Manchester United
Brighton
4
2
L
19.01.25
H2H
Manchester United
Brighton
1
3
W
24.08.24
H2H
Brighton
Manchester United
2
1
W
19.05.24
H2H
Brighton
Manchester United
0
2
L
16.09.23
H2H
Manchester United
Brighton
1
3
W
04.05.23
H2H
Brighton
Manchester United
1
0
W
23.04.23
H2H
Brighton
Manchester United
0
0
D
07.08.22
H2H
Manchester United
Brighton
1
2
W
07.05.22
H2H
Brighton
Manchester United
4
0
W
15.02.22
H2H
Manchester United
Brighton
2
0
L
04.04.21
H2H
Manchester United
Brighton
2
1
L
30.09.20
H2H
Brighton
Manchester United
0
3
L
26.09.20
H2H
Brighton
Manchester United
2
3
L
Last matches: Brighton
09.05.26
Pre
Brighton
Wolves
3
0
W
21.04.26
Pre
Brighton
Chelsea
3
0
W
21.03.26
Pre
Brighton
Liverpool
2
1
W
04.03.26
Pre
Brighton
Arsenal
0
1
L
01.03.26
Pre
Brighton
Nottingham Forest
2
1
W
08.02.26
Pre
Brighton
Crystal Palace
0
1
L
31.01.26
Pre
Brighton
Everton
1
1
D
19.01.26
Pre
Brighton
Bournemouth
1
1
D
03.01.26
Pre
Brighton
Burnley
2
0
W
20.12.25
Pre
Brighton
Sunderland
0
0
D
07.12.25
Pre
Brighton
West Ham
1
1
D
03.12.25
Pre
Brighton
Aston Villa
3
4
L
22.11.25
Pre
Brighton
Brentford
2
1
W
01.11.25
Pre
Brighton
Leeds
3
0
W
18.10.25
Pre
Brighton
Newcastle
2
1
W
20.09.25
Pre
Brighton
Tottenham
2
2
D
31.08.25
Pre
Brighton
Manchester City
2
1
W
16.08.25
Pre
Brighton
Fulham
1
1
D
H2H at home: Brighton
24.05.26
H2H
Brighton
Manchester United
0
3
L
24.08.24
H2H
Brighton
Manchester United
2
1
W
19.05.24
H2H
Brighton
Manchester United
0
2
L
04.05.23
H2H
Brighton
Manchester United
1
0
W
23.04.23
H2H
Brighton
Manchester United
0
0
D
07.05.22
H2H
Brighton
Manchester United
4
0
W
30.09.20
H2H
Brighton
Manchester United
0
3
L
26.09.20
H2H
Brighton
Manchester United
2
3
L
Last matches: Manchester United
24.07.26
Fri
Manchester United
Rosenborg
5
0
W
09.05.26
Pre
Manchester United
Sunderland
0
0
D
18.04.26
Pre
Manchester United
Chelsea
1
0
W
20.03.26
Pre
Manchester United
Bournemouth
2
2
D
04.03.26
Pre
Manchester United
Newcastle
1
2
L
23.02.26
Pre
Manchester United
Everton
1
0
W
10.02.26
Pre
Manchester United
West Ham
1
1
D
25.01.26
Pre
Manchester United
Arsenal
3
2
W
07.01.26
Pre
Manchester United
Burnley
2
2
D
04.01.26
Pre
Manchester United
Leeds
1
1
D
21.12.25
Pre
Manchester United
Aston Villa
1
2
L
08.12.25
Pre
Manchester United
Wolves
4
1
W
30.11.25
Pre
Manchester United
Crystal Palace
2
1
W
08.11.25
Pre
Manchester United
Tottenham
2
2
D
01.11.25
Pre
Manchester United
Nottingham Forest
2
2
D
19.10.25
Pre
Manchester United
Liverpool
2
1
W
27.09.25
Pre
Manchester United
Brentford
1
3
L
14.09.25
Pre
Manchester United
Manchester City
0
3
L
24.08.25
Pre
Manchester United
Fulham
1
1
D
H2H away: Manchester United
24.05.26
H2H
Brighton
Manchester United
0
3
W
24.08.24
H2H
Brighton
Manchester United
2
1
L
19.05.24
H2H
Brighton
Manchester United
0
2
W
04.05.23
H2H
Brighton
Manchester United
1
0
L
23.04.23
H2H
Brighton
Manchester United
0
0
D
07.05.22
H2H
Brighton
Manchester United
4
0
L
30.09.20
H2H
Brighton
Manchester United
0
3
W
26.09.20
H2H
Brighton
Manchester United
2
3
W

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 26 7 5 71:27 44 85
W W W W W
2 38 23 9 6 77:35 42 78
L D W W D
3 38 20 11 7 69:50 19 71
W W D W W
4 38 19 8 11 56:49 7 65
W W D L L
5 38 17 9 12 63:53 10 60
D L D L W
6 38 13 18 7 58:54 4 57
D D W W D
7 38 14 12 12 42:48 -6 54
W W D D L
8 38 14 11 13 52:46 6 53
L L W L W
9 38 14 11 13 55:52 3 53
D D L W L
10 38 14 10 14 58:52 6 52
L W D L L
11 38 15 7 16 47:51 -4 52
W D L L W
12 38 14 7 17 53:55 -2 49
L W D W L
13 38 13 10 15 47:50 -3 49
L L D D L
14 38 11 14 13 49:56 -7 47
L W D W D
15 38 11 12 15 41:51 -10 45
L D L D L
16 38 11 11 16 48:51 -3 44
D L D W W
17 38 10 11 17 48:57 -9 41
W L D W W
18 38 10 9 19 46:65 -19 39
W L L L W
19 38 4 10 24 38:75 -37 22
D L D L L
20 38 3 11 24 27:68 -41 20
D D L D L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Championship

Missing Players

Brighton 3 missing
-
S. Tzimas
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
A. Webster
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
K. Mitoma
Missing Fixture Thigh Injury
OUT
Manchester United 3 missing
-
M. de Ligt
Missing Fixture Back Injury
OUT
-
Casemiro
Missing Fixture Inactive
OUT
-
B. Sesko
Questionable Leg Injury
OUT