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23.08.2026 13:00
American Express Stadium
Referee: Peter Bankes, England
Brighton
Match Timeline
Aston Villa
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
8'
Victor Lindelöf
Brighton
🟨
9'
João Gomes
Aston Villa
🟨
10'
Pascal Groß
Brighton
🟨
11'
Yasin Ayari
Brighton
⚽
18'
Maxim De Cuyper · Assist: Georginio Rutter
Brighton
⚽
30'
Jack Hinshelwood · Assist: Diego Gómez
Brighton
⚽
31'
Jack Hinshelwood
Brighton
🟨
33'
John McGinn
Aston Villa
VAR
39'
João Gomes
Aston Villa
🟥
40'
João Gomes
Aston Villa
🔄
64'
Yasin Ayari ↔ Costinha
Brighton
🔄
64'
Jack Hinshelwood ↔ Charalampos Kostoulas
Brighton
🔄
74'
Pau Torres ↔ Tyrone Mings
Aston Villa
🔄
74'
Ross Barkley ↔ Lamare Bogarde
Aston Villa
🔄
78'
Maxim De Cuyper ↔ Ibrahim Osman
Brighton
🔄
78'
Mats Wieffer ↔ Zadok Yohanna
Brighton
🔄
82'
John McGinn ↔ Alysson
Aston Villa
🔄
82'
Ian Maatsen ↔ Matteo Ruggeri
Aston Villa
🔄
86'
Diego Gómez ↔ Malick Yalcouyé
Brighton
🔄
86'
Emiliano Buendía ↔ Alejandro Garnacho
Aston Villa
🟨
90+5'
Matty Cash
Aston Villa

Brighton vs Aston Villa Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 61%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 82.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
61%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
78.8%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
82.2%
- ▥
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Brighton Win 61%
Draw 4.6%
Aston Villa Win 34.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Brighton1.95
Aston Villa1.43
Recent Form (Last 5)
Brighton Brighton
D W W W
8 GF / 3 GA
Aston Villa Aston Villa
L L L W L
8 GF / 11 GA
Key Stats
2
Average Goals Scored
1.88
0.75
Average Goals Conceded
1.88
1
BTTS Yes
7
2
Over 2.5
8
6
Shots on Goal
4

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Brighton Brighton 4 matches
Aston Villa Aston Villa 8 matches
Brighton Statistic Aston Villa
3 Wins 2
1 Draws 0
0 Losses 6
8 Goals For 15
3 Goals Against 15
2 Avg Goals Scored 1.88
0.75 Avg Goals Conceded 1.88
1 BTTS Yes 7
2 Over 1.5 8
2 Over 2.5 8
1 Over 3.5 3
3 Clean Sheets 1
1 Failed To Score 0
6 Shots On Goal 4
25 Total Shots 15
11 Corners 2
68% Ball Possession 39%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Brighton won 3 times, Aston Villa won 8 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 18:28 from Brighton's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 3.07 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.4%)
Predicted formations: Brighton 4-2-3-1 / Aston Villa 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Brighton 5, Aston Villa 7
H2H summary: Brighton wins 3, draws 4, Aston Villa wins 8

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 9 7 0 2 20:10 10 21
L L W W W
2 8 7 0 1 13:5 8 21
W W W L W
3 9 6 1 2 24:7 17 19
W L W W W
4 9 5 1 3 19:15 4 16
W L W W L
5 8 4 3 1 11:8 3 15
W W L W D
6 9 3 5 1 16:9 7 14
W D L D W
7 9 3 3 3 14:13 1 12
W W W L L
8 9 3 3 3 10:10 0 12
W W W D L
9 9 3 3 3 10:13 -3 12
D W W D W
10 9 2 5 2 11:10 1 11
D D L D L
11 9 2 5 2 9:8 1 11
L D D L D
12 8 3 2 3 12:14 -2 11
W L L W L
13 9 3 2 4 14:18 -4 11
D D L W L
14 8 2 4 2 8:9 -1 10
L L D W D
15 9 2 3 4 9:11 -2 9
D W W L D
16 9 3 0 6 9:16 -7 9
W L L W W
17 9 1 4 4 10:15 -5 7
L L D D D
18 9 2 1 6 9:21 -12 7
L L L W D
19 9 1 3 5 6:12 -6 6
L D L L L
20 9 1 2 6 7:17 -10 5
L D L L L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Relegation - Championship