ENGLAND PREMIER LEAGUE
03.05.2026 13:00
Vitality Stadium
Referee: R. Jones
Bournemouth
Match Timeline
Crystal Palace
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
6'
Jaydee Canvot
Crystal Palace
10'
J. Lerma
Bournemouth
32'
E. J. Kroupi
Bournemouth
🟨
38'
Maxence Lacroix
Crystal Palace
🔄
46'
Y. Pino ↔ I. Sarr
Crystal Palace
🔄
46'
D. Munoz ↔ T. Mitchell
Crystal Palace
🔄
46'
D. Kamada ↔ A. Wharton
Crystal Palace
🔄
65'
J. S. Larsen ↔ J. Mateta
Crystal Palace
🔄
69'
T. Adams ↔ R. Christie
Bournemouth
🔄
70'
E. J. Kroupi ↔ D. Brooks
Bournemouth
🔄
76'
C. Riad ↔ C. Richards
Crystal Palace
77'
Rayan · Assist: D. Brooks
Bournemouth
🔄
80'
Evanilson ↔ E. Unal
Bournemouth
🔄
86'
Rayan ↔ A. Adli
Bournemouth
🔄
86'
M. Tavernier ↔ B. Doak
Bournemouth

Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 84.6%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 86.7%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 86.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
84.6%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
86.7%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
86.7%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Bournemouth Win 46.5%
Draw 15.4%
Crystal Palace Win 38.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Bournemouth1.35
Crystal Palace1.36
Recent Form (Last 5)
Bournemouth Bournemouth
WWDLW
54 GF / 54 GA
Crystal Palace Crystal Palace
WLDWL
61 GF / 52 GA
Key Stats
1.54
Average Goals Scored
1.24
1.54
Average Goals Conceded
1.06
24
BTTS Yes
25
21
Over 2.5
25
4.97
Shots on Goal
4.24

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Bournemouth Bournemouth 35 matches
Crystal Palace Crystal Palace 49 matches
Bournemouth Statistic Crystal Palace
11 Wins 19
17 Draws 14
7 Losses 16
54 Goals For 61
54 Goals Against 52
1.54 Avg Goals Scored 1.24
1.54 Avg Goals Conceded 1.06
24 BTTS Yes 25
27 Over 1.5 34
21 Over 2.5 25
17 Over 3.5 9
9 Clean Sheets 19
7 Failed To Score 13
4.97 Shots On Goal 4.24
14.09 Total Shots 13.1
5.66 Corners 4.53
50.1% Ball Possession 49.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Bournemouth expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Crystal Palace in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Crystal Palace having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Crystal Palace. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

Bournemouth Analysis

Bournemouth sit 7 with 49 points after 34 league matches. Their overall return of 11 wins, 16 draws, and 7 losses with goals at 52:52 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by A. Semenyo (15 goals), Eli Junior Kroupi (11 goals), Evanilson (6 goals), with creative support from M. Senesi (5 assists), A. Semenyo (4 assists), M. Tavernier (4 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. At home, their split return of 6 wins, 9 draws, and 2 losses fits a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Crystal Palace Analysis

Crystal Palace are currently 13 in the standings with 43 points from 33 matches. Their overall return of 11 wins, 10 draws, and 12 losses with goals at 36:39 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Jean-Philippe Mateta (10 goals), I. Sarr (7 goals), Daniel Muñoz (4 goals), with creative support from Adam Wharton (5 assists), Jefferson Lerma (3 assists), Daniel Muñoz (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 7 wins, 2 draws, and 7 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Bournemouth won 4 times, Crystal Palace won 5 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 18:20 from Bournemouth's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.53 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (84.6%)
Predicted formations: Bournemouth 4-2-3-1 / Crystal Palace 3-4-2-1
Missing players: Bournemouth 3, Crystal Palace 3
H2H summary: Bournemouth wins 4, draws 6, Crystal Palace wins 5

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 26 7 5 71:27 44 85
W W W W W
2 38 23 9 6 77:35 42 78
L D W W D
3 38 20 11 7 69:50 19 71
W W D W W
4 38 19 8 11 56:49 7 65
W W D L L
5 38 17 9 12 63:53 10 60
D L D L W
6 38 13 18 7 58:54 4 57
D D W W D
7 38 14 12 12 42:48 -6 54
W W D D L
8 38 14 11 13 52:46 6 53
L L W L W
9 38 14 11 13 55:52 3 53
D D L W L
10 38 14 10 14 58:52 6 52
L W D L L
11 38 15 7 16 47:51 -4 52
W D L L W
12 38 14 7 17 53:55 -2 49
L W D W L
13 38 13 10 15 47:50 -3 49
L L D D L
14 38 11 14 13 49:56 -7 47
L W D W D
15 38 11 12 15 41:51 -10 45
L D L D L
16 38 11 11 16 48:51 -3 44
D L D W W
17 38 10 11 17 48:57 -9 41
W L D W W
18 38 10 9 19 46:65 -19 39
W L L L W
19 38 4 10 24 38:75 -37 22
D L D L L
20 38 3 11 24 27:68 -41 20
D D L D L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Championship