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BRAZIL › SERIE B
03.10.2026 21:30
Estadio Santa Cruz
Referee: Wagner do Nascimento Magalhaes, Brazil
Botafogo SP
Match Timeline
Vila Nova
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
27'
Marquinhos Gabriel
Vila Nova
⚽
45'
Janderson · Assist: Hayner
Vila Nova
🔄
61'
Everton Galdino ↔ Emerson Urso
Vila Nova
🔄
68'
Matheus Sales ↔ Kelvin
Botafogo SP
🔄
68'
Ze Hugo ↔ Wesley Santos
Botafogo SP
🟨
70'
Hayner
Vila Nova
🔄
70'
Marquinhos Gabriel ↔ Higor Meritao
Vila Nova
🔄
70'
Andre Luis ↔ Lincoln
Vila Nova
🟨
73'
João Vieira
Vila Nova
🟨
74'
Leandro Maciel
Botafogo SP
🟨
79'
Ericson da Silva
Botafogo SP
VAR
83'
Hygor
Botafogo SP
🔄
86'
Joao Vieira ↔ Willian Formiga
Vila Nova
🔄
86'
Janderson ↔ Dodo
Vila Nova
🔄
87'
Pedro Henrique ↔ Gabriel Inocencio
Botafogo SP
🔄
87'
Leandro Maciel ↔ Arthur Caike
Botafogo SP
🔄
88'
Rafael Gava ↔ Thiago Moraes
Botafogo SP

Botafogo SP vs Vila Nova Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 56.5%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
56.5%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
67.1%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Botafogo SP Win 24.8%
Draw 18.7%
Vila Nova Win 56.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Botafogo SP1.09
Vila Nova1.34
Recent Form (Last 5)
Botafogo SP Botafogo SP
WWDLW
34 GF / 36 GA
Vila Nova Vila Nova
WLDWL
43 GF / 31 GA
Key Stats
1.13
Average Goals Scored
1.43
1.2
Average Goals Conceded
1.03
16
BTTS Yes
12
13
Over 2.5
11
3.4
Shots on Goal
4.3

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Botafogo SP Botafogo SP 30 matches
Vila Nova Vila Nova 30 matches
Botafogo SP Statistic Vila Nova
9 Wins 16
8 Draws 6
13 Losses 8
34 Goals For 43
36 Goals Against 31
1.13 Avg Goals Scored 1.43
1.2 Avg Goals Conceded 1.03
16 BTTS Yes 12
19 Over 1.5 21
13 Over 2.5 11
6 Over 3.5 5
6 Clean Sheets 11
10 Failed To Score 8
3.4 Shots On Goal 4.3
12.03 Total Shots 13.9
5.9 Corners 5.03
46.8% Ball Possession 51.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Vila Nova's more proactive style and Botafogo SP's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Vila Nova. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Botafogo SP expected to line up in 3-4-1-2 and Vila Nova in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Vila Nova having the stronger overall control. Botafogo SP have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. Vila Nova carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 54 points while Botafogo SP sit 16 on 32, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Botafogo SP Analysis

With 32 points from 29 games and a place of 16, Botafogo SP still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 8 wins, 8 draws, and 13 losses, together with goals at 32:36, reflects poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Much of their threat comes through Everton Morelli (7 goals), Hygor (4 goals), Vilar (2 goals), with creative support from Rafael Gava (5 assists), Patrick Brey (3 assists), Kelvin (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. At home, they have returned 5 wins, 3 draws, and 6 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Vila Nova Analysis

Vila Nova come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 1 place with 54 points after 30 matches. With 16 wins, 6 draws, and 8 defeats plus a goal balance of 43:31, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by André Luís (6 goals), João Vieira (3 goals), Ryan Lima (3 goals), with creative support from Marquinhos Gabriel (7 assists), Janderson (6 assists), João Vieira (4 assists), and at the back they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed 4 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (81.3%)
Predicted formations: Botafogo SP 3-4-1-2 / Vila Nova 4-2-3-1

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 33 18 7 8 46:31 15 61
W D W W W
2 33 17 9 7 59:28 31 60
W W W D L
3 33 17 9 7 39:21 18 60
D W W W L
4 34 16 12 6 41:29 12 60
W D W D D
5 33 16 8 9 34:28 6 56
W L W W L
6 34 14 12 8 42:32 10 54
D D L W W
7 33 15 7 11 51:47 4 52
D W L W L
8 34 13 12 9 45:37 8 51
L D W W L
9 33 14 6 13 34:40 -6 48
W W L L W
10 33 13 9 11 44:45 -1 48
L L L D W
11 33 11 14 8 32:26 6 47
L D W L W
12 33 12 10 11 46:36 10 46
D L W D W
13 33 10 13 10 40:39 1 43
D L L D D
14 33 11 9 13 39:42 -3 42
L L D W L
15 33 11 9 13 35:40 -5 42
L W W D W
16 33 11 8 14 37:38 -1 41
W W L W D
17 33 10 6 17 33:43 -10 36
W W L L L
18 33 7 8 18 42:49 -7 29
D L L L L
19 33 4 5 24 21:54 -33 17
L L L L L
20 34 3 5 26 19:74 -55 14
D L L L L
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