BRAZIL SERIE B
29.09.2026 22:30
Estadio Santa Cruz

Botafogo SP vs Ponte Preta Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 81.4%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 54.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 61.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
81.4%
-
BTTS Yes
54.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
61.1%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
67.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Botafogo SP Win 81.4%
Draw 9.3%
Ponte Preta Win 9.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Botafogo SP1.52
Ponte Preta0.85
Recent Form (Last 5)
Botafogo SP Botafogo SP
WWDLW
32 GF / 36 GA
Ponte Preta Ponte Preta
WLDWL
17 GF / 62 GA
Key Stats
1.1
Average Goals Scored
0.59
1.24
Average Goals Conceded
2.14
16
BTTS Yes
12
13
Over 2.5
13
3.38
Shots on Goal
3.24

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Botafogo SP Botafogo SP 29 matches
Ponte Preta Ponte Preta 29 matches
Botafogo SP Statistic Ponte Preta
8 Wins 3
8 Draws 4
13 Losses 22
32 Goals For 17
36 Goals Against 62
1.1 Avg Goals Scored 0.59
1.24 Avg Goals Conceded 2.14
16 BTTS Yes 12
18 Over 1.5 24
13 Over 2.5 13
6 Over 3.5 6
5 Clean Sheets 3
10 Failed To Score 15
3.38 Shots On Goal 3.24
11.97 Total Shots 10.59
5.93 Corners 4.34
46.1% Ball Possession 41.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Botafogo SP expected to line up in 3-4-1-2 and Ponte Preta in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Ponte Preta having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Ponte Preta. Botafogo SP arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 16 with 32 points compared to Ponte Preta in 20 on 13, which underlines the gap in season consistency.

Botafogo SP Analysis

Botafogo SP approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 16 with 32 points from 29 matches. Across the season they have posted 8 wins, 8 draws, and 13 defeats, and the 32:36 goal record continues to suggest poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Their attacking burden often falls on Everton Morelli (7 goals), Hygor (4 goals), Vilar (2 goals), with creative support from Rafael Gava (5 assists), Patrick Brey (3 assists), Kelvin (2 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. At home, they have returned 5 wins, 3 draws, and 6 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Ponte Preta Analysis

Ponte Preta approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 20 with 13 points from 29 matches. Across the season they have posted 3 wins, 4 draws, and 22 defeats, and the 17:62 goal record continues to suggest poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Their attacking burden often falls on Brandão (3 goals), Elvis (2 goals), William Pottker (2 goals), with creative support from Elvis (3 assists), Diego Tavares (3 assists), Brandão (1 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, the split record of 1 wins, 0 draws, and 13 losses points to a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Botafogo SP won 4 times, Ponte Preta won 6 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 9:11 from Botafogo SP's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 1.33 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (90.7%)
Predicted formations: Botafogo SP 3-4-1-2 / Ponte Preta 4-1-4-1
H2H summary: Botafogo SP wins 4, draws 5, Ponte Preta wins 6

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 29 15 6 8 41:31 10 51
W D W L W
2 29 14 9 6 33:24 9 51
W D W W D
3 29 14 8 7 49:27 22 50
L D W W W
4 29 14 8 7 31:19 12 50
L L W D D
5 28 13 8 7 28:25 3 47
L L W L L
6 29 12 10 7 36:27 9 46
L W W D W
7 29 13 6 10 42:41 1 45
L W L W W
8 28 12 8 8 39:36 3 44
D W W D D
9 29 11 11 7 39:29 10 44
W L W L L
10 29 12 6 11 30:35 -5 42
W W L L W
11 29 11 8 10 40:31 9 41
W W L W L
12 29 10 11 8 34:31 3 41
D W L W L
13 28 9 13 6 27:22 5 40
D W L W D
14 28 10 8 10 35:33 2 38
D L W W D
15 29 9 8 12 31:37 -6 35
W D L W L
16 29 8 8 13 32:36 -4 32
D L L L L
17 29 8 6 15 30:38 -8 30
L D L L L
18 29 7 7 15 39:41 -2 28
L W W L D
19 29 4 5 20 21:49 -28 17
L L W L W
20 29 3 4 22 17:62 -45 13
W L L L L
Promotion
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