BRAZIL SERIE B
09.09.2026 22:30
Estadio Santa Cruz
Referee: J. Pfleger
Botafogo SP
Match Timeline
Novorizontino
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
12'
Felipe Vieira Augusto
Botafogo SP
VAR
19'
Romulo Azevedo Simão
Novorizontino
21'
Romulo Azevedo Simão
Novorizontino
30'
Felipe Vieira Augusto · Assist: Kelvin Giacobe·Alves dos Santos
Botafogo SP
🟨
33'
Maykon Kesley de Jesus Ramalho
Novorizontino
🟨
45'
Leandro Maciel
Botafogo SP
🟨
47'
Nicolas Morês da Cruz
Novorizontino
🟨
47'
Gabriel de Souza Inocencio
Botafogo SP
56'
Robson · Assist: Leonardo Naldi de Matos
Novorizontino
🔄
62'
Nicolas Morês da Cruz ↔ Juninho
Novorizontino
🔄
62'
Leonardo Naldi de Matos ↔ Matheus Henrique Bianqui
Novorizontino
🔄
67'
José Hugo Sousa dos Santos ↔ Wesley Santos
Botafogo SP
🔄
67'
Leandro Maciel ↔ Arthur Caíke
Botafogo SP
73'
Matheus Henrique Bianqui · Assist: Madson Ferreira dos Santos
Novorizontino
🔄
78'
Morelli ↔ Jadson Alves de Lima
Botafogo SP
🔄
78'
Felipe Vieira Augusto ↔ Jonathan
Botafogo SP
🔄
78'
Kelvin Giacobe·Alves dos Santos ↔ Matheus Sales
Botafogo SP
🔄
84'
Gabriel Henrique Feitosa da Silva ↔ Carlinhos
Novorizontino
🔄
84'
Francisco Reidiney Duarte Gomes ↔ Diego Galo
Novorizontino
🔄
87'
Robson ↔ Carlos Henrique de Moura Brito
Novorizontino
🟨
90+5'
Rafael Gava
Botafogo SP

Botafogo SP vs Novorizontino Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 96.1%
Odds 1.36
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds 1.83
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 70.3%
Odds 2.26
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
96.1%
1.36
BTTS Yes
67.1%
1.83
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
70.3%
2.26
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.04
HT / FT Home / Home
-
5.00
Correct Score 2-1
-
12.00
Probability Distribution
Botafogo SP Win 44.1%
Draw 3.9%
Novorizontino Win 52%
Expected Goals (xG)
Botafogo SP1.02
Novorizontino1.46
Recent Form (Last 5)
Botafogo SP Botafogo SP
WWDLW
29 GF / 29 GA
Novorizontino Novorizontino
WLDWL
44 GF / 23 GA
Key Stats
1.12
Average Goals Scored
1.69
1.12
Average Goals Conceded
0.88
13
BTTS Yes
13
11
Over 2.5
15
3.54
Shots on Goal
5.15

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Botafogo SP Botafogo SP 26 matches
Novorizontino Novorizontino 26 matches
Botafogo SP Statistic Novorizontino
8 Wins 13
7 Draws 7
11 Losses 6
29 Goals For 44
29 Goals Against 23
1.12 Avg Goals Scored 1.69
1.12 Avg Goals Conceded 0.88
13 BTTS Yes 13
15 Over 1.5 18
11 Over 2.5 15
4 Over 3.5 7
5 Clean Sheets 9
10 Failed To Score 7
3.54 Shots On Goal 5.15
11.81 Total Shots 14.81
5.88 Corners 6.08
46.2% Ball Possession 47.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Novorizontino. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Novorizontino carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 4 with 43 points while Botafogo SP sit 15 on 31, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself.

Botafogo SP Analysis

With 31 points from 25 games and a place of 15, Botafogo SP still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 8 wins, 7 draws, and 10 defeats, and the 29:28 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Everton Morelli (7 goals), Vilar (2 goals), Hygor (2 goals), with creative support from Rafael Gava (5 assists), Patrick Brey (3 assists), Everton Morelli (1 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. At home, they have returned 5 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with balanced attacking football.

Novorizontino Analysis

Operating from 4 place with 43 points from 25 games, Novorizontino bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. They have recorded 12 wins, 7 draws, and 6 losses, with a 41:22 goal return and good form and are on a winning streak. In attack they lean heavily on Robson (7 goals), Rômulo (4 goals), Matheus Bianqui (3 goals), with creative support from Rômulo (7 assists), Robson (3 assists), Juninho (3 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, the split of 5 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses supports the view of a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Botafogo SP won 4 times, Novorizontino won 7 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 12:17 from Botafogo SP's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.07 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96.1%)
Predicted formations: Botafogo SP 4-2-3-1 / Novorizontino 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Botafogo SP wins 4, draws 3, Novorizontino wins 7

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 29 15 6 8 41:31 10 51
W D W L W
2 29 14 8 7 49:27 22 50
L D W W W
3 29 14 8 7 31:19 12 50
L L W D D
4 28 13 9 6 31:23 8 48
D W W D W
5 28 13 8 7 28:25 3 47
L L W L L
6 29 12 10 7 36:27 9 46
L W W D W
7 28 13 6 9 42:40 2 45
W L W W L
8 28 12 8 8 39:36 3 44
D W W D D
9 29 11 11 7 39:29 10 44
W L W L L
10 29 11 8 10 40:31 9 41
W W L W L
11 29 10 11 8 34:31 3 41
D W L W L
12 28 9 13 6 27:22 5 40
D W L W D
13 28 11 6 11 28:34 -6 39
W L L W D
14 28 10 8 10 35:33 2 38
D L W W D
15 29 9 8 12 31:37 -6 35
W D L W L
16 29 8 8 13 32:36 -4 32
D L L L L
17 28 8 6 14 29:36 -7 30
D L L L W
18 28 7 7 14 38:39 -1 28
W W L D L
19 29 4 5 20 21:49 -28 17
L L W L W
20 28 2 4 22 16:62 -46 10
L L L L L
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