BRAZIL SERIE B
02.05.2026 19:00
Estadio Santa Cruz
Referee: R. Abatti
Botafogo SP
Match Timeline
Nautico Recife
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
42'
Everton Morelli · Assist: Patrick Brey
Botafogo SP
🔄
46'
Wallace ↔ Guilherme Mariano
Botafogo SP
🔄
46'
Junior Todinho ↔ Victor Andrade
Nautico Recife
🔄
46'
Matheus Ribeiro ↔ Reginaldo
Nautico Recife
🟨
50'
Guilherme Mariano
Botafogo SP
58'
Victor Andrade
Nautico Recife
🔄
64'
Luizao ↔ Guilherme Queiroz
Botafogo SP
🔄
64'
Matheus Sales ↔ Rafael Gava
Botafogo SP
🟨
66'
Luiz Felipe
Nautico Recife
🔄
74'
Kelvin ↔ Jefferson Nem
Botafogo SP
🔄
79'
Wenderson ↔ Samuel Felix
Nautico Recife
🔄
79'
Derek ↔ Felipe Saraiva
Nautico Recife
🔄
80'
Ze Hugo ↔ Marcio Maranhao
Botafogo SP
🔄
87'
Dodo ↔ Ramon
Nautico Recife
🟨
88'
Márcio Carlos Maranhão
Botafogo SP
🟨
90+2'
Victor Andrade
Nautico Recife

Botafogo SP vs Nautico Recife Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 77.4%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 30.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 43.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
77.4%
-
BTTS BTTS No
30.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
43.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Botafogo SP Win 36.5%
Draw 22.6%
Nautico Recife Win 40.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Botafogo SP1.3
Nautico Recife0.8
Recent Form (Last 5)
Botafogo SP Botafogo SP
WWDLW
9 GF / 6 GA
Nautico Recife Nautico Recife
WLDWL
4 GF / 6 GA
Key Stats
1.5
Average Goals Scored
0.67
1
Average Goals Conceded
1
4
BTTS Yes
1
3
Over 2.5
2
2.67
Shots on Goal
2.67

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Botafogo SP Botafogo SP 6 matches
Nautico Recife Nautico Recife 6 matches
Botafogo SP Statistic Nautico Recife
2 Wins 3
2 Draws 0
2 Losses 3
9 Goals For 4
6 Goals Against 6
1.5 Avg Goals Scored 0.67
1 Avg Goals Conceded 1
4 BTTS Yes 1
5 Over 1.5 2
3 Over 2.5 2
1 Over 3.5 0
1 Clean Sheets 2
1 Failed To Score 3
2.67 Shots On Goal 2.67
10.17 Total Shots 13.5
5.5 Corners 6.17
38.3% Ball Possession 58.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and Botafogo SP's more proactive style and Nautico Recife's more cautious structure points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Nautico Recife. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.

Botafogo SP Analysis

Botafogo SP are currently 10 in the standings with 8 points from 6 matches. Their overall return of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses with goals at 9:6 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Everton Morelli (4 goals), Hygor (2 goals), Luizão (1 goals), with creative support from Patrick Brey (2 assists), Rafael Gava (2 assists), Everton Morelli (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, their split return of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Nautico Recife Analysis

Nautico Recife are currently 8 in the standings with 9 points from 6 matches. Their overall return of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses with goals at 4:6 reflects good form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Vinícius (2 goals), Igor Fernandes (1 goals), Victor Andrade (1 goals), with creative support from Yuri (2 assists), Dodo (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the record of 2 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 3 head-to-head meetings, Botafogo SP won 0 times, Nautico Recife won 1 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 3:5 from Botafogo SP's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 2.67 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (77.4%)
Predicted formations: Botafogo SP 4-2-3-1 / Nautico Recife 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Botafogo SP wins 0, draws 2, Nautico Recife wins 1

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 29 15 6 8 41:31 10 51
W D W L W
2 29 14 9 6 33:24 9 51
W D W W D
3 29 14 8 7 49:27 22 50
L D W W W
4 29 14 8 7 31:19 12 50
L L W D D
5 29 13 8 8 41:36 5 47
W D W W D
6 29 13 8 8 28:27 1 47
L L L W L
7 29 12 10 7 36:27 9 46
L W W D W
8 29 13 6 10 42:41 1 45
L W L W W
9 29 11 11 7 39:29 10 44
W L W L L
10 29 10 13 6 30:22 8 43
W D W L W
11 29 12 6 11 30:35 -5 42
W W L L W
12 29 11 8 10 40:31 9 41
W W L W L
13 29 10 11 8 34:31 3 41
D W L W L
14 29 10 8 11 35:36 -1 38
L D L W W
15 29 9 8 12 31:37 -6 35
W D L W L
16 29 8 8 13 32:36 -4 32
D L L L L
17 29 8 6 15 30:38 -8 30
L D L L L
18 29 7 7 15 39:41 -2 28
L W W L D
19 29 4 5 20 21:49 -28 17
L L W L W
20 29 3 4 22 17:62 -45 13
W L L L L
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