BRAZIL SERIE B
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Estadio Santa Cruz

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 56.7%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 52.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
56.7%
-
BTTS Yes
71.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
52.4%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Botafogo SP Win 56.7%
Draw 11%
Cuiaba Win 32.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Botafogo SP1
Cuiaba0.96
Recent Form (Last 5)
Botafogo SP Botafogo SP
WWDLW
28 GF / 26 GA
Cuiaba Cuiaba
WLDWL
21 GF / 18 GA
Key Stats
1.17
Average Goals Scored
0.88
1.08
Average Goals Conceded
0.75
12
BTTS Yes
9
10
Over 2.5
4
3.42
Shots on Goal
4.29

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Botafogo SP Botafogo SP 24 matches
Cuiaba Cuiaba 24 matches
Botafogo SP Statistic Cuiaba
8 Wins 7
7 Draws 12
9 Losses 5
28 Goals For 21
26 Goals Against 18
1.17 Avg Goals Scored 0.88
1.08 Avg Goals Conceded 0.75
12 BTTS Yes 9
14 Over 1.5 13
10 Over 2.5 4
4 Over 3.5 3
5 Clean Sheets 10
9 Failed To Score 10
3.42 Shots On Goal 4.29
11.71 Total Shots 13.04
6.13 Corners 5.25
45.6% Ball Possession 48.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Botafogo SP expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Cuiaba in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Cuiaba having the stronger overall control. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Cuiaba. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Botafogo SP Analysis

Botafogo SP approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 14 with 31 points from 23 matches. Their record of 8 wins, 7 draws, and 8 losses, together with goals at 28:23, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Everton Morelli (6 goals), Vilar (2 goals), Hygor (2 goals), with creative support from Rafael Gava (5 assists), Patrick Brey (3 assists), Everton Morelli (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, they have managed 5 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show balanced attacking football.

Cuiaba Analysis

Cuiaba sit 12 with 32 points after 23 league matches. Their overall return of 7 wins, 11 draws, and 5 losses with goals at 20:17 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by João Basso (2 goals), Hernandes (2 goals), Pepê (1 goals), with creative support from Pepê (3 assists), Eliel (2 assists), João Basso (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, their split return of 3 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 11 head-to-head meetings, Botafogo SP won 1 times, Cuiaba won 4 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 6:13 from Botafogo SP's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 1.73 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (89%)
Predicted formations: Botafogo SP 4-2-3-1 / Cuiaba 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Botafogo SP wins 1, draws 6, Cuiaba wins 4
Last matches: Botafogo SP
25.08.26
Ser
Botafogo SP
Atletico Goianiense
0
3
L
20.08.26
Ser
Botafogo SP
Criciuma
1
1
D
14.08.26
Ser
Botafogo SP
São Bernardo
1
0
W
08.08.26
Ser
Botafogo SP
America Mineiro
2
1
W
29.07.26
Ser
Botafogo SP
Fortaleza EC
0
1
L
24.07.26
Ser
Botafogo SP
Juventude
4
2
W
18.07.26
Ser
Botafogo SP
Londrina
0
0
D
10.07.26
Ser
Botafogo SP
Sport Recife
3
3
D
06.07.26
Ser
Botafogo SP
Avai
3
1
W
30.06.26
Ser
Botafogo SP
CRB
0
1
L
20.06.26
Ser
Botafogo SP
Ceara
1
0
W
14.06.26
Ser
Botafogo SP
Operario-PR
2
1
W
08.06.26
Ser
Botafogo SP
Vila Nova
0
1
L
01.06.26
Ser
Botafogo SP
Ponte Preta
0
0
D
25.05.26
Ser
Botafogo SP
Athletic Club
1
2
L
16.05.26
Ser
Botafogo SP
Goias
0
1
L
10.05.26
Ser
Botafogo SP
Novorizontino
0
1
L
02.05.26
Ser
Botafogo SP
Nautico Recife
1
1
D
23.04.26
Ser
Botafogo SP
Cuiaba
1
1
D
19.04.26
Ser
Botafogo SP
Atletico Goianiense
1
1
D
Last matches: Cuiaba
22.08.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Goias
1
1
D
19.08.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Operario-PR
1
0
W
15.08.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Ceara
3
1
W
09.08.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Fortaleza EC
1
1
D
27.07.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Sport Recife
1
1
D
23.07.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Atletico Goianiense
0
1
L
17.07.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Juventude
0
2
L
12.07.26
Ser
Cuiaba
São Bernardo
2
2
D
02.07.26
Ser
Cuiaba
America Mineiro
1
0
W
25.06.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Londrina
2
2
D
21.06.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Avai
0
1
L
14.06.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Vila Nova
1
0
W
09.06.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Ponte Preta
2
1
W
31.05.26
Ser
Cuiaba
CRB
2
0
W
22.05.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Nautico Recife
0
1
L
16.05.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Novorizontino
0
0
D
09.05.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Athletic Club
0
0
D
02.05.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Criciuma
1
1
D
23.04.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Botafogo SP
1
1
D
19.04.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Goias
2
0
W
H2H: Botafogo SP vs Cuiaba
23.04.26
H2H
Cuiaba
Botafogo SP
1
1
D
19.10.25
H2H
Botafogo SP
Cuiaba
2
2
D
01.07.25
H2H
Cuiaba
Botafogo SP
0
1
W
06.12.20
H2H
Cuiaba
Botafogo SP
2
0
L
01.09.20
H2H
Botafogo SP
Cuiaba
1
1
D
23.11.19
H2H
Botafogo SP
Cuiaba
0
0
D
24.08.19
H2H
Cuiaba
Botafogo SP
2
0
L
08.09.18
H2H
Botafogo SP
Cuiaba
0
3
L
02.09.18
H2H
Cuiaba
Botafogo SP
0
0
D
30.06.18
H2H
Cuiaba
Botafogo SP
2
1
L
28.04.18
H2H
Botafogo SP
Cuiaba
0
0
D
Last matches: Botafogo SP
20.08.26
Ser
Botafogo SP
Criciuma
1
1
D
08.08.26
Ser
Botafogo SP
America Mineiro
2
1
W
24.07.26
Ser
Botafogo SP
Juventude
4
2
W
06.07.26
Ser
Botafogo SP
Avai
3
1
W
30.06.26
Ser
Botafogo SP
CRB
0
1
L
14.06.26
Ser
Botafogo SP
Operario-PR
2
1
W
25.05.26
Ser
Botafogo SP
Athletic Club
1
2
L
02.05.26
Ser
Botafogo SP
Nautico Recife
1
1
D
19.04.26
Ser
Botafogo SP
Atletico Goianiense
1
1
D
05.04.26
Ser
Botafogo SP
São Bernardo
1
2
L
21.03.26
Ser
Botafogo SP
Fortaleza EC
4
0
W
H2H at home: Botafogo SP
19.10.25
H2H
Botafogo SP
Cuiaba
2
2
D
01.09.20
H2H
Botafogo SP
Cuiaba
1
1
D
23.11.19
H2H
Botafogo SP
Cuiaba
0
0
D
08.09.18
H2H
Botafogo SP
Cuiaba
0
3
L
28.04.18
H2H
Botafogo SP
Cuiaba
0
0
D
Last matches: Cuiaba
15.08.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Ceara
3
1
W
27.07.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Sport Recife
1
1
D
17.07.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Juventude
0
2
L
12.07.26
Ser
Cuiaba
São Bernardo
2
2
D
21.06.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Avai
0
1
L
09.06.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Ponte Preta
2
1
W
22.05.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Nautico Recife
0
1
L
09.05.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Athletic Club
0
0
D
19.04.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Goias
2
0
W
12.04.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Operario-PR
0
0
D
31.03.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Fortaleza EC
0
0
D
H2H away: Cuiaba
19.10.25
H2H
Botafogo SP
Cuiaba
2
2
D
01.09.20
H2H
Botafogo SP
Cuiaba
1
1
D
23.11.19
H2H
Botafogo SP
Cuiaba
0
0
D
08.09.18
H2H
Botafogo SP
Cuiaba
0
3
W
28.04.18
H2H
Botafogo SP
Cuiaba
0
0
D

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 24 13 6 5 26:13 13 45
W W D W W
2 24 12 8 4 25:17 8 44
L D W L D
3 24 12 5 7 35:25 10 41
D W W L L
4 24 11 7 6 39:21 18 40
W W D L W
5 24 11 7 6 27:21 6 40
W D D D W
6 24 9 11 4 32:22 10 38
W L W W D
7 24 10 6 8 35:34 1 36
L W D W W
8 24 10 6 8 30:31 -1 36
D L L L L
9 24 9 9 6 27:23 4 36
W D L D W
10 24 8 10 6 25:25 0 34
L L W W D
11 24 9 6 9 23:29 -6 33
D L L W L
12 24 7 12 5 21:18 3 33
D W W D D
13 24 8 8 8 33:27 6 32
D D L W L
14 24 8 7 9 28:26 2 31
L D W W L
15 24 8 7 9 28:27 1 31
D W D D D
16 24 8 5 11 27:30 -3 29
W W W L L
17 24 7 7 10 25:30 -5 28
W L L W W
18 24 5 6 13 29:36 -7 21
L D L L L
19 24 2 5 17 16:42 -26 11
L L L L W
20 24 2 4 18 16:50 -34 10
L L D L D
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