19.09.2026 15:00
Parque Artigas

Boston River vs Progreso Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 67.5%
Odds 1.95
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds 1.91
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 48.9%
Odds 2.12
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
67.5%
1.95
BTTS Yes
62.8%
1.91
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
48.9%
2.12
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
1.36
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.88
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.00
Probability Distribution
Boston River Win 67.5%
Draw 8%
Progreso Win 24.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Boston River1.16
Progreso0.99
Recent Form (Last 5)
Boston River Boston River
WWDLW
27 GF / 38 GA
Progreso Progreso
WLDWL
21 GF / 41 GA
Key Stats
0.96
Average Goals Scored
0.75
1.36
Average Goals Conceded
1.46
13
BTTS Yes
11
12
Over 2.5
11
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Boston River Boston River 28 matches
Progreso Progreso 28 matches
Boston River Statistic Progreso
8 Wins 6
6 Draws 4
14 Losses 18
27 Goals For 21
38 Goals Against 41
0.96 Avg Goals Scored 0.75
1.36 Avg Goals Conceded 1.46
13 BTTS Yes 11
18 Over 1.5 17
12 Over 2.5 11
5 Over 3.5 4
5 Clean Sheets 4
13 Failed To Score 13
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Boston River expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Progreso in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Progreso having the stronger overall control. Progreso arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Progreso.

Boston River Analysis

Boston River sit 14 with 30 points after 28 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 8 wins, 6 draws, and 14 losses, together with goals at 27:38, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through their main attacking players, while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. At home, they have returned - wins, - draws, and - losses, which indicates an unclear split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Progreso Analysis

Progreso sit 16 with 22 points after 28 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 6 wins, 4 draws, and 18 losses, together with goals at 21:41, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through their main attacking players, while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned - wins, - draws, and - losses, which indicates an unclear split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, Boston River won 2 times, Progreso won 2 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 6:7 from Boston River's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 2.6 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (92%)
Predicted formations: Boston River 4-4-2 / Progreso 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Boston River wins 2, draws 1, Progreso wins 2

Standings

Primera: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 27 16 5 6 44:22 22 52
W W L D W
2 28 14 10 4 35:22 13 52
W L W D W
3 27 15 5 7 47:31 16 50
W W W W W
4 28 14 7 7 42:27 15 49
L W L D W
5 28 13 4 11 40:36 4 43
D D W W L
6 28 12 7 9 35:34 1 43
D L W L D
7 28 11 9 8 37:27 10 42
L W D W W
8 28 10 8 10 30:33 -3 38
D D L L L
9 28 9 7 12 36:35 1 34
L L L L L
10 28 8 9 11 28:30 -2 33
D L D D D
11 28 8 8 12 32:38 -6 32
D D W W L
12 28 7 11 10 23:30 -7 32
W D L D L
13 28 9 5 14 22:41 -19 32
W W D L W
14 28 8 6 14 27:38 -11 30
L L D W D
15 28 4 13 11 23:37 -14 25
D L L D D
16 28 6 4 18 21:41 -20 22
L W W L L
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