29.08.2026 17:00
Parque Artigas
Referee: M. De Armas
Boston River
Match Timeline
Cerro
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
12'
A. Cambon
Cerro
33'
N. Siri
Boston River
🟨
36'
Rodrigo Saravia
Boston River
🔄
46'
F. Bregante ↔ P. Nongoy
Cerro
🔄
55'
F. Aristegui ↔ Y. Gonzalez
Boston River
🔄
65'
A. Cambon ↔ E. Rodriguez
Cerro
🔄
65'
Leonardo Pais ↔ R. Mederos
Cerro
🔄
69'
F. Munoa ↔ F. Martinez
Boston River
🔄
69'
N. Siri ↔ A. Fernandez
Boston River
🟨
72'
Nahuel Arena
Cerro
🔄
77'
L. Vazquez ↔ A. Amado
Boston River
🟨
81'
Pablo Nongoy
Cerro
🟨
88'
Agustín Amado
Boston River

Boston River vs Cerro Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 52.7%
Odds 1.85
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71%
Odds 2.10
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 70.3%
Odds 2.39
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
52.7%
1.85
BTTS Yes
71%
2.10
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
70.3%
2.39
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
2.00
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.10
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.50
Probability Distribution
Boston River Win 52.7%
Draw 17.8%
Cerro Win 29.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Boston River1.2
Cerro0.94
Recent Form (Last 5)
Boston River Boston River
WWDLW
24 GF / 33 GA
Cerro Cerro
WLDWL
17 GF / 39 GA
Key Stats
0.96
Average Goals Scored
0.68
1.32
Average Goals Conceded
1.56
11
BTTS Yes
10
11
Over 2.5
10
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Boston River Boston River 25 matches
Cerro Cerro 25 matches
Boston River Statistic Cerro
8 Wins 7
5 Draws 4
12 Losses 14
24 Goals For 17
33 Goals Against 39
0.96 Avg Goals Scored 0.68
1.32 Avg Goals Conceded 1.56
11 BTTS Yes 10
16 Over 1.5 15
11 Over 2.5 10
4 Over 3.5 5
5 Clean Sheets 5
12 Failed To Score 10
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Cerro. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Boston River expected to line up in 4-4-1-1 and Cerro in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Cerro having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Cerro look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Boston River Analysis

Boston River sit 11 with 29 points after 25 league matches. The record of 8 wins, 5 draws, and 12 defeats, together with a 24:33 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through their main attacking players, while at the back they have looked fairly stable. At home, their split return of - wins, - draws, and - losses fits an unclear split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Cerro Analysis

So far, Cerro have built a campaign that leaves them 13 in the table on 25 points from 24 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 7 wins, 4 draws, and 13 losses, while the 17:35 goal ratio supports the view of very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Going forward they rely heavily on their main attacking players, and defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, their split return of - wins, - draws, and - losses fits an unclear split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Boston River won 7 times, Cerro won 3 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 22:15 from Boston River's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.47 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (82.2%)
Predicted formations: Boston River 4-4-1-1 / Cerro 4-3-3
H2H summary: Boston River wins 7, draws 5, Cerro wins 3

Standings

Primera: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 27 16 5 6 44:22 22 53
W W L D W
2 28 14 10 4 35:22 13 52
W L W D W
3 28 14 7 7 42:27 15 49
L W L D W
4 26 14 5 7 44:30 14 47
W W W W L
5 28 13 4 11 40:36 4 43
D D W W L
6 28 12 7 9 35:34 1 43
D L W L D
7 27 11 9 7 36:24 12 42
W D W W W
8 28 10 8 10 30:33 -3 38
D D L L L
9 28 9 7 12 36:35 1 34
L L L L L
10 28 8 9 11 28:30 -2 33
D L D D D
11 28 8 8 12 32:38 -6 32
D D W W L
12 28 7 11 10 23:30 -7 32
W D L D L
13
Cerro Away
28 9 5 14 22:41 -19 32
W W D L W
14 28 8 6 14 27:38 -11 30
L L D W D
15 28 4 13 11 23:37 -14 25
D L L D D
16 28 6 4 18 21:41 -20 22
L W W L L
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