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ENGLAND › CHAMPIONSHIP
23.10.2026 19:00
Toughsheet Community Stadium

Bolton vs Middlesbrough Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 56.6%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 86%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 82.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
56.6%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
86%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
82.2%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Bolton Win 28.7%
Draw 14.8%
Middlesbrough Win 56.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Bolton1.44
Middlesbrough1.71
Recent Form (Last 5)
Bolton Bolton
WWDLW
21 GF / 22 GA
Middlesbrough Middlesbrough
WLDWL
27 GF / 23 GA
Key Stats
1.31
Average Goals Scored
1.93
1.38
Average Goals Conceded
1.64
9
BTTS Yes
12
9
Over 2.5
10
4.73
Shots on Goal
6.18

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Bolton Bolton 16 matches
Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 14 matches
Bolton Statistic Middlesbrough
6 Wins 6
4 Draws 6
6 Losses 2
21 Goals For 27
22 Goals Against 23
1.31 Avg Goals Scored 1.93
1.38 Avg Goals Conceded 1.64
9 BTTS Yes 12
10 Over 1.5 12
9 Over 2.5 10
6 Over 3.5 8
5 Clean Sheets 2
5 Failed To Score 0
4.73 Shots On Goal 6.18
13.82 Total Shots 19.09
5.36 Corners 5.82
50.4% Ball Possession 59.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Middlesbrough's more proactive style and Bolton's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Middlesbrough. Middlesbrough carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 2 with 21 points while Bolton sit 14 on 13, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Bolton expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Middlesbrough in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Middlesbrough having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Bolton Analysis

Bolton sit 14 with 13 points after 10 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 4 wins, 1 draws, and 5 defeats, and the 15:18 goal record continues to suggest good form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on S. Dalby (3 goals), T. Gale (3 goals), A. Ito (2 goals), with creative support from Gaizka Larrazabal (2 assists), Ruben Rodrigues (1 assists), T. Bair (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 2 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Middlesbrough Analysis

Operating from 2 place with 21 points from 10 games, Middlesbrough bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 6 wins, 3 draws, and 1 defeats, together with goals at 20:14, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through W. Lankshear (8 goals), A. Cozier-Duberry (2 goals), S. Berhalter (2 goals), with creative support from T. Conway (3 assists), A. Cozier-Duberry (2 assists), L. Ayling (2 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. Away from home, their record of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Bolton won 1 times, Middlesbrough won 12 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 8:29 from Bolton's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.64 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85.2%)
Predicted formations: Bolton 4-2-3-1 / Middlesbrough 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Bolton wins 1, draws 1, Middlesbrough wins 12

Standings

Championship
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 11 7 2 2 16:8 8 23
L W W W W
2 11 6 4 1 30:12 18 22
W W D D W
3 11 6 4 1 22:16 6 22
D W W D D
4 11 5 5 1 20:11 9 20
W W W D W
5 11 6 2 3 15:12 3 20
W W L L D
6 11 6 1 4 18:16 2 19
W L W W W
7 11 6 3 2 21:10 11 17
D W W L W
8 10 5 2 3 18:15 3 17
W L L W W
9 11 4 5 2 15:12 3 17
L W D D D
10 11 4 3 4 17:16 1 15
L W W D W
11 11 4 3 4 15:14 1 15
W L W L L
12 11 4 3 4 18:18 0 15
D L W D D
13 10 4 2 4 13:13 0 14
W W L D D
14 11 3 5 3 15:16 -1 14
W L D W L
15 11 4 2 5 15:18 -3 14
D W L W W
16 11 4 2 5 12:15 -3 14
L L D W L
17 11 3 5 3 10:15 -5 14
L D D L D
18 11 3 3 5 9:19 -10 12
D L L L W
19 11 2 5 4 18:17 1 11
D W L W L
20 11 3 2 6 10:19 -9 11
W L L L L
21 11 3 0 8 17:21 -4 9
L L L L L
22 11 1 5 5 16:21 -5 8
L D W D L
23 11 1 3 7 9:20 -11 6
L L D D L
24 11 1 1 9 9:24 -15 4
L L L D L
Promotion - Premier League
Promotion - Championship (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Promotion - Championship (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)
Relegation - League One