ITALY › SERIE A
03.05.2026 10:30
Stadio Renato Dall'Ara
Referee: V. Crezzini
Bologna
Match Timeline
Cagliari
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
42'
A. Deiola ↔ I. Sulemana
Cagliari
🔄
46'
S. Sohm ↔ J. Rowe
Bologna
🟨
52'
Michel Adopo
Cagliari
🔄
63'
B. Dominguez ↔ R. Orsolini
Bologna
🔄
63'
J. Odgaard ↔ S. Castro
Bologna
🟨
68'
Eivind Helland
Bologna
🔄
73'
S. Esposito ↔ P. Mendy
Cagliari
🔄
78'
F. Bernardeschi ↔ L. Ferguson
Bologna
🔄
85'
L. De Silvestri ↔ N. Zortea
Bologna
🔄
89'
M. Adopo ↔ G. Zappa
Cagliari
🟨
90+5'
Santiago Castro
Bologna

Bologna vs Cagliari Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 89.3%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 40.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 30.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
89.3%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
40.6%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
30.4%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
85.1%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-0
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Bologna Win 89.3%
Draw 10.7%
Cagliari Win 0%
Expected Goals (xG)
Bologna1.35
Cagliari1.18
Recent Form (Last 5)
Bologna Bologna
WWDLW
68 GF / 64 GA
Cagliari Cagliari
WLDWL
42 GF / 52 GA
Key Stats
1.31
Average Goals Scored
1.14
1.23
Average Goals Conceded
1.41
26
BTTS Yes
20
24
Over 2.5
18
4.48
Shots on Goal
3.32

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Bologna Bologna 52 matches
Cagliari Cagliari 37 matches
Bologna Statistic Cagliari
22 Wins 10
12 Draws 11
18 Losses 16
68 Goals For 42
64 Goals Against 52
1.31 Avg Goals Scored 1.14
1.23 Avg Goals Conceded 1.41
26 BTTS Yes 20
39 Over 1.5 29
24 Over 2.5 18
13 Over 3.5 8
14 Clean Sheets 7
14 Failed To Score 12
4.48 Shots On Goal 3.32
14.35 Total Shots 10.3
5.37 Corners 3.65
54.6% Ball Possession 45.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between Bologna's more proactive style and Cagliari's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Cagliari. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Bologna expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Cagliari in 3-5-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Cagliari having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

Bologna Analysis

Bologna sit 9 with 48 points after 34 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 14 wins, 6 draws, and 14 defeats, and the 42:41 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on R. Orsolini (8 goals), S. Castro (7 goals), J. Odgaard (5 goals), with creative support from Nicolò Cambiaghi (4 assists), E. Holm (4 assists), B. Dominguez (3 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. At home, the split record of 6 wins, 2 draws, and 9 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests balanced attacking football.

Cagliari Analysis

With 36 points from 34 games and a place of 16, Cagliari still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 9 wins, 9 draws, and 16 losses, together with goals at 36:49, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Sebastiano Esposito (6 goals), Gennaro Borrelli (4 goals), Semih Kılıçsoy (4 goals), with creative support from Sebastiano Esposito (5 assists), M. Palestra (4 assists), G. Gaetano (3 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 3 wins, 5 draws, and 9 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Bologna won 8 times, Cagliari won 5 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 21:15 from Bologna's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.4 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (100%)
Predicted formations: Bologna 4-2-3-1 / Cagliari 3-5-2
Missing players: Bologna 6, Cagliari 7
H2H summary: Bologna wins 8, draws 2, Cagliari wins 5

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 27 6 5 89:35 54 87
D D W W D
2 38 23 7 8 58:36 22 76
W W L D W
3 38 23 4 11 59:31 28 73
W W W W W
4 38 20 11 7 65:29 36 71
W W W D W
5 38 20 10 8 53:35 18 70
L W L L D
6 38 19 12 7 61:34 27 69
D L W D D
7 38 15 14 9 51:36 15 59
D L W D L
8 38 16 8 14 49:46 3 56
D W W D L
9 38 14 12 12 41:40 1 54
W L L W D
10 38 14 8 16 45:48 -3 50
L L W W D
11 38 14 7 17 46:50 -4 49
L L L W D
12 38 12 9 17 44:63 -19 45
D L W L D
13 38 11 12 15 28:46 -18 45
W L L L W
14 38 11 10 17 40:53 -13 43
W W L D W
15 38 9 15 14 41:50 -9 42
D W D L D
16 38 10 11 17 41:51 -10 41
L L D D L
17 38 10 8 20 28:50 -22 38
W W L W D
18 38 8 10 20 32:57 -25 34
L W W L L
19 38 3 12 23 25:61 -36 21
L D L D D
20 38 2 12 24 26:71 -45 18
L L L L L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Serie B