IRELAND PREMIER DIVISION
18.09.2026 19:00
Dalymount Park

Bohemians vs Drogheda United Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 72.3%
Odds 1.35
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds 1.91
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds 1.62
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
72.3%
1.35
BTTS Yes
67.1%
1.91
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
1.62
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
91%
2.00
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.20
Correct Score 2-1
-
8.50
Probability Distribution
Bohemians Win 72.3%
Draw 4.5%
Drogheda United Win 23.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Bohemians1.67
Drogheda United1.24
Recent Form (Last 5)
Bohemians Bohemians
WWDLW
74 GF / 52 GA
Drogheda United Drogheda United
WLDWL
42 GF / 52 GA
Key Stats
1.76
Average Goals Scored
1.24
1.24
Average Goals Conceded
1.53
27
BTTS Yes
21
25
Over 2.5
17
4.76
Shots on Goal
3.32

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Bohemians Bohemians 42 matches
Drogheda United Drogheda United 34 matches
Bohemians Statistic Drogheda United
20 Wins 9
11 Draws 12
11 Losses 13
74 Goals For 42
52 Goals Against 52
1.76 Avg Goals Scored 1.24
1.24 Avg Goals Conceded 1.53
27 BTTS Yes 21
34 Over 1.5 27
25 Over 2.5 17
16 Over 3.5 11
13 Clean Sheets 9
6 Failed To Score 8
4.76 Shots On Goal 3.32
14.26 Total Shots 10.19
5.35 Corners 3.97
52.5% Ball Possession 38.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Bohemians's more proactive style and Drogheda United's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Bohemians arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 3 with 50 points compared to Drogheda United in 9 on 28, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Drogheda United. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Bohemians expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Drogheda United in 3-5-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Drogheda United having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Bohemians Analysis

Bohemians approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 3 on 50 points after 29 outings. They have recorded 14 wins, 8 draws, and 7 losses, with a 50:34 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on Douglas James-Taylor (5 goals), Ross Tierney (4 goals), Colm Whelan (4 goals), with creative support from Dawson Devoy (4 assists), Harry Vaughan (4 assists), Douglas James-Taylor (3 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. At home, their record of 6 wins, 6 draws, and 3 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

Drogheda United Analysis

Drogheda United are currently 9 in the standings with 28 points from 29 matches. Their overall return of 6 wins, 10 draws, and 13 losses with goals at 33:48 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Mark Doyle (4 goals), Brandon Kavanagh (2 goals), Thomas Oluwa (2 goals), with creative support from Brandon Kavanagh (3 assists), Thomas Oluwa (1 assists), Edwin Agbaje (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 3 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses, a split that suggests a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Bohemians won 6 times, Drogheda United won 5 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 20:14 from Bohemians's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.27 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.5%)
Predicted formations: Bohemians 4-2-3-1 / Drogheda United 3-5-2
H2H summary: Bohemians wins 6, draws 4, Drogheda United wins 5

Standings

Premier Division
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 31 16 8 7 51:25 26 56
W W L W W
2 30 16 8 6 46:29 17 56
L D D W D
3 30 15 8 7 53:36 17 53
W W W L D
4 31 10 11 10 47:50 -3 41
L D W L L
5 31 8 14 9 44:42 2 38
D W D L W
6 30 9 10 11 41:46 -5 37
W L D W D
7 30 8 12 10 38:42 -4 36
L L D D L
8 31 7 13 11 42:51 -9 34
D D W D W
9 31 8 10 13 37:49 -12 34
W W L L D
10 31 5 8 18 24:53 -29 23
L L L D L
Play-offs
Qualifying
Relegation Play-offs
Relegation