IRELAND › PREMIER DIVISION
01.05.2026 19:00
Dalymount Park
Referee: R. Harvey
Bohemians
Match Timeline
Derry City
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
39'
J. Olayinka · Assist: A. O'Reilly
Derry City
🟨
42'
Adam O'Reilly
Derry City
🔄
46'
D. James-Taylor ↔ R. Tierney
Bohemians
🔄
51'
C. Winchester ↔ C. Dummigan
Derry City
⚽
52'
M. Strods · Assist: C. Whelan
Bohemians
🟨
59'
Patrick McClean
Derry City
🔄
67'
J. Olayinka ↔ M. Duffy
Derry City
🔄
67'
J. Thomas ↔ D. Akinyemi
Derry City
🟨
69'
Senan Mullen
Bohemians
🟨
75'
Markuss Strods
Bohemians
🔄
76'
N. Morahan ↔ A. McDonnell
Bohemians
🔄
76'
S. Mullen ↔ C. Byrne
Bohemians
🔄
77'
D. Markey ↔ B. Doherty
Derry City
🟨
79'
Cameron Dummigan
Derry City
🟨
82'
Adam O'Reilly
Derry City
🟥
82'
Adam O'Reilly
Derry City
🟨
83'
Patrick Hickey
Bohemians
🟨
86'
Barry Cotter
Derry City
🔄
86'
D. Power ↔ J. Harpur
Bohemians
🔄
87'
M. Strods ↔ C. Parsons
Bohemians

Bohemians vs Derry City Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 78.1%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 22.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 36.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
78.1%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
22.2%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
36.4%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 0-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Bohemians Win 45.3%
Draw 21.9%
Derry City Win 32.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Bohemians1.39
Derry City1.1
Recent Form (Last 5)
Bohemians Bohemians
WWDLW
28 GF / 18 GA
Derry City Derry City
WLDWL
18 GF / 19 GA
Key Stats
1.47
Average Goals Scored
1.2
0.95
Average Goals Conceded
1.27
11
BTTS Yes
9
9
Over 2.5
9
5.46
Shots on Goal
4.85

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Bohemians Bohemians 19 matches
Derry City Derry City 15 matches
Bohemians Statistic Derry City
8 Wins 4
7 Draws 5
4 Losses 6
28 Goals For 18
18 Goals Against 19
1.47 Avg Goals Scored 1.2
0.95 Avg Goals Conceded 1.27
11 BTTS Yes 9
12 Over 1.5 9
9 Over 2.5 9
6 Over 3.5 4
7 Clean Sheets 3
4 Failed To Score 5
5.46 Shots On Goal 4.85
15.38 Total Shots 13.15
6.08 Corners 5.85
58.6% Ball Possession 52.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Derry City. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Bohemians have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Bohemians expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Derry City in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Derry City having the stronger overall control. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Bohemians Analysis

With 20 points from 13 games and a place of 4, Bohemians still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 5 wins, 5 draws, and 3 defeats, and the 15:11 goal record continues to suggest poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Their attacking burden often falls on C. Whelan (6 goals), Patrick Hickey (2 goals), C. Parsons (1 goals), with creative support from M. Strods (2 assists), C. Whelan (1 assists), D. Rooney (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, the split record of 2 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football approach still suggests balanced attacking football.

Derry City Analysis

Placed 5 with 17 points from 13 outings, Derry City continue to operate from a strong competitive position. The record of 4 wins, 5 draws, and 4 defeats, together with a 17:16 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through M. Duffy (5 goals), D. Akinyemi (3 goals), James Clarke (3 goals), with creative support from Ben Doherty (2 assists), J. McClean (2 assists), M. Duffy (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, their split return of 1 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Bohemians won 4 times, Derry City won 6 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:23 from Bohemians's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.8 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (78.1%)
Predicted formations: Bohemians 4-2-3-1 / Derry City 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Bohemians wins 4, draws 5, Derry City wins 6

Standings

Premier Division
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 32 17 8 7 52:25 27 59
W W W L W
2 31 17 8 6 49:31 18 59
W L D D W
3 31 16 8 7 55:37 18 56
W W W W L
4 32 9 14 9 45:42 3 41
W D W D L
5 32 10 11 11 49:53 -4 41
L L D W L
6 32 9 13 10 42:45 -3 40
D W L L D
7 32 9 11 12 42:48 -6 38
D L W L D
8 32 7 13 12 44:54 -10 34
L D D W D
9 32 8 10 14 38:51 -13 34
L W W L L
10 32 5 8 19 24:54 -30 23
L L L L D
Play-offs
Qualifying
Relegation Play-offs
Relegation