ARGENTINA LIGA PROFESIONAL ARGENTINA
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Estadio Alberto J. Armando

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away or Draw
Probability 62.4%
Odds -
BTTS
No
Probability 50.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 58.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away or Draw
62.4%
-
BTTS No
50.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
58.1%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Boca Juniors Win 37.6%
Draw 23.2%
Velez Sarsfield Win 39.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Boca Juniors1.05
Velez Sarsfield1.09
Recent Form (Last 5)
Boca Juniors Boca Juniors
WWDLW
37 GF / 21 GA
Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield
WLDWL
28 GF / 15 GA
Key Stats
1.28
Average Goals Scored
1.33
0.72
Average Goals Conceded
0.71
11
BTTS Yes
10
10
Over 2.5
6
4.71
Shots on Goal
4.16

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Boca Juniors Boca Juniors 29 matches
Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield 21 matches
Boca Juniors Statistic Velez Sarsfield
14 Wins 11
8 Draws 7
7 Losses 3
37 Goals For 28
21 Goals Against 15
1.28 Avg Goals Scored 1.33
0.72 Avg Goals Conceded 0.71
11 BTTS Yes 10
19 Over 1.5 12
10 Over 2.5 6
2 Over 3.5 4
14 Clean Sheets 9
7 Failed To Score 4
4.71 Shots On Goal 4.16
13.38 Total Shots 12.05
5.33 Corners 4.26
59.6% Ball Possession 54.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Velez Sarsfield. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Boca Juniors Analysis

Boca Juniors approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 2 on 30 points after 16 outings. With 8 wins, 6 draws, and 2 defeats plus a goal balance of 22:9, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by Milton Giménez (4 goals), Adam Bareiro (3 goals), Alan Velasco (2 goals), with creative support from Miguel Merentiel (2 assists), Tomás Aranda (2 assists), Exequiel Zeballos (2 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. At home, their record of 3 wins, 5 draws, and 0 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

Velez Sarsfield Analysis

Velez Sarsfield arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 3 place with 28 points after 16 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 7 wins, 7 draws, and 2 losses, while the 18:12 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Florián Monzón (3 goals), Diego Valdés (1 goals), Joaquín García (1 goals), with creative support from Diego Valdés (2 assists), Elías Gómez (1 assists), Matías Pellegrini (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, the record of 3 wins, 4 draws, and 1 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 13 head-to-head meetings, Boca Juniors won 7 times, Velez Sarsfield won 4 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 25:13 from Boca Juniors's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.92 goals per game.

1X2: Away or Draw
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (76.8%)
Predicted formations: Boca Juniors 4-2-3-1 / Velez Sarsfield 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Boca Juniors wins 7, draws 2, Velez Sarsfield wins 4
Last matches: Boca Juniors
26.07.26
Lig
Boca Juniors
Deportivo Riestra
0
3
L
17.07.26
Cop
Boca Juniors
Sarmiento Junin
2
0
W
09.07.26
Fri
Boca Juniors
Atletico Paranaense
1
0
W
29.05.26
CON
Boca Juniors
U. Catolica
0
1
L
20.05.26
CON
Boca Juniors
Cruzeiro
1
1
D
09.05.26
Lig
Boca Juniors
Huracan
2
3
L
06.05.26
CON
Boca Juniors
Barcelona SC
0
1
L
02.05.26
Lig
Boca Juniors
Central Cordoba de Santiago
2
1
W
29.04.26
CON
Boca Juniors
Cruzeiro
0
1
L
23.04.26
Lig
Boca Juniors
Defensa Y Justicia
4
0
W
19.04.26
Lig
Boca Juniors
River Plate
1
0
W
15.04.26
CON
Boca Juniors
Barcelona SC
3
0
W
11.04.26
Lig
Boca Juniors
Independiente
1
1
D
08.04.26
CON
Boca Juniors
U. Catolica
2
1
W
02.04.26
Lig
Boca Juniors
Talleres Cordoba
1
0
W
22.03.26
Lig
Boca Juniors
Instituto Cordoba
2
0
W
16.03.26
Lig
Boca Juniors
Union Santa Fe
1
1
D
11.03.26
Lig
Boca Juniors
San Lorenzo
1
1
D
05.03.26
Lig
Boca Juniors
Lanus
3
0
W
28.02.26
Lig
Boca Juniors
Gimnasia M.
1
1
D
Last matches: Velez Sarsfield
30.07.26
Lig
Velez Sarsfield
Talleres Cordoba
3
1
W
24.07.26
Lig
Velez Sarsfield
Instituto Cordoba
1
0
W
11.05.26
Lig
Velez Sarsfield
Gimnasia L.P.
0
1
L
04.05.26
Lig
Velez Sarsfield
Newells Old Boys
1
1
D
01.05.26
Cop
Velez Sarsfield
Gimnasia Y Tiro
2
0
W
27.04.26
Lig
Velez Sarsfield
Union Santa Fe
2
2
D
20.04.26
Lig
Velez Sarsfield
San Lorenzo
0
0
D
14.04.26
Lig
Velez Sarsfield
Central Cordoba de Santiago
1
0
W
07.04.26
Cop
Velez Sarsfield
Deportivo Armenio
4
1
W
03.04.26
Lig
Velez Sarsfield
Gimnasia M.
2
3
L
21.03.26
Lig
Velez Sarsfield
Lanus
0
1
L
14.03.26
Lig
Velez Sarsfield
Platense
2
0
W
10.03.26
Lig
Velez Sarsfield
Tigre
1
1
D
02.03.26
Lig
Velez Sarsfield
Estudiantes L.P.
1
0
W
25.02.26
Lig
Velez Sarsfield
Deportivo Riestra
0
0
D
22.02.26
Lig
Velez Sarsfield
River Plate
1
0
W
14.02.26
Lig
Velez Sarsfield
Defensa Y Justicia
1
1
D
09.02.26
Lig
Velez Sarsfield
Boca Juniors
2
1
W
31.01.26
Lig
Velez Sarsfield
Independiente
1
1
D
27.01.26
Lig
Velez Sarsfield
Talleres Cordoba
2
1
W
H2H: Boca Juniors vs Velez Sarsfield
09.02.26
H2H
Velez Sarsfield
Boca Juniors
2
1
L
28.11.24
H2H
Boca Juniors
Velez Sarsfield
3
4
L
14.06.24
H2H
Boca Juniors
Velez Sarsfield
1
0
W
26.02.23
H2H
Velez Sarsfield
Boca Juniors
1
2
W
02.10.22
H2H
Boca Juniors
Velez Sarsfield
1
0
W
10.04.22
H2H
Velez Sarsfield
Boca Juniors
0
0
D
24.10.21
H2H
Velez Sarsfield
Boca Juniors
2
0
L
08.03.21
H2H
Velez Sarsfield
Boca Juniors
1
7
W
29.04.20
H2H
Boca Juniors
Velez Sarsfield
0
0
D
10.11.19
H2H
Velez Sarsfield
Boca Juniors
0
0
D
02.09.18
H2H
Boca Juniors
Velez Sarsfield
3
0
W
23.09.17
H2H
Velez Sarsfield
Boca Juniors
0
4
W
09.04.17
H2H
Velez Sarsfield
Boca Juniors
1
3
W
01.06.15
H2H
Velez Sarsfield
Boca Juniors
2
0
L
Last matches: Boca Juniors
09.07.26
Fri
Boca Juniors
Atletico Paranaense
1
0
W
29.05.26
CON
Boca Juniors
U. Catolica
0
1
L
20.05.26
CON
Boca Juniors
Cruzeiro
1
1
D
09.05.26
Lig
Boca Juniors
Huracan
2
3
L
15.04.26
CON
Boca Juniors
Barcelona SC
3
0
W
11.04.26
Lig
Boca Juniors
Independiente
1
1
D
22.03.26
Lig
Boca Juniors
Instituto Cordoba
2
0
W
11.03.26
Lig
Boca Juniors
San Lorenzo
1
1
D
28.02.26
Lig
Boca Juniors
Gimnasia M.
1
1
D
25.02.26
Cop
Boca Juniors
Gimnasia Chivilcoy
2
0
W
20.02.26
Lig
Boca Juniors
Racing Club
0
0
D
15.02.26
Lig
Boca Juniors
Platense
0
0
D
01.02.26
Lig
Boca Juniors
Newells Old Boys
2
0
W
25.01.26
Lig
Boca Juniors
Deportivo Riestra
1
0
W
19.01.26
Fri
Boca Juniors
Olimpia
2
1
W
14.01.26
Fri
Boca Juniors
Millonarios
0
0
D
H2H at home: Boca Juniors
28.11.24
H2H
Boca Juniors
Velez Sarsfield
3
4
L
14.06.24
H2H
Boca Juniors
Velez Sarsfield
1
0
W
02.10.22
H2H
Boca Juniors
Velez Sarsfield
1
0
W
29.04.20
H2H
Boca Juniors
Velez Sarsfield
0
0
D
02.09.18
H2H
Boca Juniors
Velez Sarsfield
3
0
W
Last matches: Velez Sarsfield
30.07.26
Lig
Velez Sarsfield
Talleres Cordoba
3
1
W
20.04.26
Lig
Velez Sarsfield
San Lorenzo
0
0
D
03.04.26
Lig
Velez Sarsfield
Gimnasia M.
2
3
L
14.03.26
Lig
Velez Sarsfield
Platense
2
0
W
10.03.26
Lig
Velez Sarsfield
Tigre
1
1
D
02.03.26
Lig
Velez Sarsfield
Estudiantes L.P.
1
0
W
14.02.26
Lig
Velez Sarsfield
Defensa Y Justicia
1
1
D
31.01.26
Lig
Velez Sarsfield
Independiente
1
1
D
23.01.26
Lig
Velez Sarsfield
Instituto Cordoba
1
0
W
H2H away: Velez Sarsfield
28.11.24
H2H
Boca Juniors
Velez Sarsfield
3
4
W
14.06.24
H2H
Boca Juniors
Velez Sarsfield
1
0
L
02.10.22
H2H
Boca Juniors
Velez Sarsfield
1
0
L
29.04.20
H2H
Boca Juniors
Velez Sarsfield
0
0
D
02.09.18
H2H
Boca Juniors
Velez Sarsfield
3
0
L

Standings

Apertura - Group A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 16 9 4 3 19:7 12 31
W L L W D
2 16 8 6 2 22:9 13 30
L L W W W
3 16 7 7 2 18:12 6 28
W W L D D
4 16 7 5 4 17:13 4 26
L L L D D
5 16 6 6 4 24:20 4 24
W W L W L
6 16 6 6 4 18:15 3 24
W L D D L
7 16 5 7 4 14:14 0 22
W L L L W
8 16 5 6 5 24:20 4 21
L D L W D
9 16 6 3 7 17:17 0 21
W L W D L
10 16 4 7 5 18:21 -3 19
L W D L L
11 16 5 4 7 14:22 -8 19
W L W W L
12 16 3 7 6 10:15 -5 16
L D L L L
13 16 4 4 8 11:21 -10 16
L L L D W
14 16 3 6 7 15:27 -12 15
L W D D W
15 16 1 8 7 5:12 -7 11
L W D W L
Knockout Phase