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03.10.2026 00:30
Estadio Alberto J. Armando
Referee: S. Martinez
Boca Juniors
Match Timeline
Union Santa Fe
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
7'
Facundo Ezequiel Herrera
Boca Juniors
🟨
17'
Leandro Paredes
Boca Juniors
🟨
21'
Joaquin Mosqueira
Union Santa Fe
⚽
22'
L. Di Lollo · Assist: L. Paredes
Boca Juniors
🟨
39'
Cristian Tarragona
Union Santa Fe
🟨
45'
Victor Malcorra
Union Santa Fe
🔄
46'
J. Mosqueira ↔ L. Menossi
Union Santa Fe
🔄
60'
Miguel Merentiel ↔ E. Valencia
Boca Juniors
🔄
61'
A. Velasco ↔ Carlos Palacios
Boca Juniors
🔄
61'
S. Villa ↔ L. Flores
Boca Juniors
🔄
64'
B. Cuello ↔ M. Estigarribia
Union Santa Fe
🟨
66'
Lucas Ayala
Union Santa Fe
🟨
72'
Mauro Luna Diale
Union Santa Fe
🔄
73'
L. Ayala ↔ B. Pitton
Union Santa Fe
🔄
73'
J. Palacios ↔ E. Ramirez
Union Santa Fe
⚽
83'
L. Flores
Boca Juniors
🔄
84'
S. Ascacibar ↔ Angel Romero
Boca Juniors
🔄
86'
L. Paredes ↔ W. H. Alarcon Cepeda
Boca Juniors
⚽
90'
L. Flores · Assist: E. Valencia
Boca Juniors

Boca Juniors vs Union Santa Fe Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 70.8%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
70.8%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
75.1%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Boca Juniors Win 70.8%
Draw 7.9%
Union Santa Fe Win 21.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Boca Juniors1.36
Union Santa Fe1.21
Recent Form (Last 5)
Boca Juniors Boca Juniors
WWDLW
54 GF / 31 GA
Union Santa Fe Union Santa Fe
WLDWL
45 GF / 41 GA
Key Stats
1.35
Average Goals Scored
1.5
0.78
Average Goals Conceded
1.37
18
BTTS Yes
18
14
Over 2.5
17
4.61
Shots on Goal
5

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Boca Juniors Boca Juniors 40 matches
Union Santa Fe Union Santa Fe 30 matches
Boca Juniors Statistic Union Santa Fe
19 Wins 11
14 Draws 7
7 Losses 12
54 Goals For 45
31 Goals Against 41
1.35 Avg Goals Scored 1.5
0.78 Avg Goals Conceded 1.37
18 BTTS Yes 18
27 Over 1.5 25
14 Over 2.5 17
6 Over 3.5 9
18 Clean Sheets 6
8 Failed To Score 8
4.61 Shots On Goal 5
13.64 Total Shots 15.68
5.24 Corners 4.68
57.3% Ball Possession 48.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Union Santa Fe. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Boca Juniors arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 2 with 30 points compared to Union Santa Fe in 8 on 21, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Boca Juniors expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Union Santa Fe in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Union Santa Fe having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Boca Juniors Analysis

Boca Juniors come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 2 place with 30 points after 16 matches. The return of 8 wins, 6 draws, and 2 defeats, together with goals at 22:9, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through Alan Velasco (4 goals), Milton Giménez (4 goals), Adam Bareiro (3 goals), with creative support from Tomás Aranda (3 assists), Miguel Merentiel (2 assists), Lautaro Blanco (2 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. At home, their record of 3 wins, 5 draws, and 0 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

Union Santa Fe Analysis

So far, Union Santa Fe have built a campaign that leaves them 8 in the table on 21 points from 16 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 5 wins, 6 draws, and 5 losses, while the 24:20 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Cristian Tarragona (7 goals), Lucas Menossi (4 goals), Marcelo Estigarribia (3 goals), with creative support from Julián Palacios (4 assists), Cristian Tarragona (1 assists), Lucas Menossi (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Boca Juniors won 6 times, Union Santa Fe won 3 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:11 from Boca Juniors's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (92.1%)
Predicted formations: Boca Juniors 4-3-3 / Union Santa Fe 4-4-2
H2H summary: Boca Juniors wins 6, draws 5, Union Santa Fe wins 3

Standings

Clausura - Group A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 12 8 2 2 19:10 9 26
D W W W L
2 12 7 3 2 18:11 7 24
W W D W L
3 12 5 6 1 19:13 6 21
D W W W D
4 12 5 6 1 17:13 4 21
L D W D W
5 12 6 2 4 15:9 6 20
W D W W W
6 12 6 2 4 15:12 3 20
W L D L D
7 12 5 3 4 11:12 -1 18
D L W D W
8 12 4 5 3 11:9 2 17
L D W D D
9 12 4 2 6 15:13 2 14
D W L W L
10 12 4 2 6 5:11 -6 14
W L L D W
11 12 4 1 7 17:21 -4 13
L L L L W
12 12 2 5 5 9:12 -3 11
L D D L D
13 12 2 5 5 12:18 -6 11
D D L L D
14 12 2 4 6 10:16 -6 10
D D D L L
15 12 2 3 7 11:18 -7 9
D L L W L
Knockout Phase