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ENGLAND › CHAMPIONSHIP
10.10.2026 14:00
Ewood Park
Referee: Tom Nield

Blackburn vs Cardiff Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 65.1%
Odds 2.75
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds 1.53
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 70.3%
Odds 1.60
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
65.1%
2.75 ▥
BTTS Yes
82.5%
1.53 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
70.3%
1.60 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.10 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
4.33 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
11.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Blackburn Win 65.1%
Draw 5.4%
Cardiff Win 29.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Blackburn1.53
Cardiff1.74
Recent Form (Last 5)
Blackburn Blackburn
WWDLW
18 GF / 16 GA
Cardiff Cardiff
WLDWL
25 GF / 21 GA
Key Stats
1.38
Average Goals Scored
2.08
1.23
Average Goals Conceded
1.75
8
BTTS Yes
9
9
Over 2.5
8
4.13
Shots on Goal
6.63

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Blackburn Blackburn 13 matches
Cardiff Cardiff 12 matches
Blackburn Statistic Cardiff
4 Wins 4
5 Draws 4
4 Losses 4
18 Goals For 25
16 Goals Against 21
1.38 Avg Goals Scored 2.08
1.23 Avg Goals Conceded 1.75
8 BTTS Yes 9
11 Over 1.5 11
9 Over 2.5 8
3 Over 3.5 7
4 Clean Sheets 0
3 Failed To Score 3
4.13 Shots On Goal 6.63
11.63 Total Shots 18.88
6 Corners 7.88
51.6% Ball Possession 64.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Cardiff. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Blackburn expected to line up in 5-4-1 and Cardiff in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Cardiff having the stronger overall control. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Cardiff arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Blackburn Analysis

Blackburn approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 16 with 9 points from 8 matches. Their record of 2 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses, together with goals at 12:12, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through O. Afolayan (3 goals), R. Morishita (2 goals), A. Guðjohnsen (2 goals), with creative support from O. Afolayan (2 assists), R. Morishita (1 assists), A. Guðjohnsen (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, the split record of 2 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Cardiff Analysis

Cardiff sit 21 with 7 points after 8 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 1 wins, 4 draws, and 3 defeats with a 10:12 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on J. Moylan (3 goals), Y. Salech (2 goals), Cian Ashford (2 goals), with creative support from J. Moylan (1 assists), Y. Salech (1 assists), Cian Ashford (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Blackburn won 7 times, Cardiff won 3 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 24:14 from Blackburn's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.53 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.6%)
Predicted formations: Blackburn 5-4-1 / Cardiff 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Blackburn 8, Cardiff 5
H2H summary: Blackburn wins 7, draws 5, Cardiff wins 3

Standings

Championship
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 8 5 2 1 13:6 7 17
W W L D W
2 8 4 3 1 22:11 11 15
D W W W W
3 8 4 3 1 16:12 4 15
D D W W D
4 7 4 2 1 15:10 5 14
W W D L W
5 8 4 2 2 10:8 2 14
L D W W D
6 8 3 4 1 10:7 3 13
D D D L W
7 8 4 1 3 13:12 1 13
W W D W W
8 8 4 1 3 11:12 -1 13
W L L W W
9 8 3 3 2 7:10 -3 12
L D D L D
10 8 2 5 1 12:11 1 11
D W L D D
11 8 3 2 3 15:15 0 11
D D L W L
12 8 3 2 3 7:8 -1 11
L W W D D
13 8 4 2 2 19:10 9 10
L W W D D
14 8 2 4 2 9:12 -3 10
W L D D W
15 8 3 1 4 11:15 -4 10
W W L L L
16 8 2 3 3 12:12 0 9
D W L L D
17 8 3 0 5 16:17 -1 9
L L W W L
18 8 2 3 3 9:11 -2 9
L L W L W
19 7 2 2 3 9:10 -1 8
D D W L L
20 8 2 2 4 7:10 -3 8
L L W L L
21 8 1 4 3 10:12 -2 7
W L D L L
22 8 1 2 5 7:14 -7 5
D L L L W
23 8 1 1 6 8:15 -7 4
D L L W L
24 8 0 4 4 9:17 -8 4
D L D L D
Promotion - Premier League
Promotion - Championship (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Promotion - Championship (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)
Relegation - League One