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ENGLAND › CHAMPIONSHIP
17.10.2026 14:00
St. Andrew's Stadium
Referee: Thomas Kirk
Birmingham
Match Timeline
QPR
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
23'
Jhon Elmer Solís Romero
Birmingham
⚽
27'
Liam Millar · Assist: Tomoki Iwata
Birmingham
🟨
44'
Harvey Vale
QPR
⚽
49'
Liam Millar · Assist: Tomoki Iwata
Birmingham
🟨
50'
Rayan Jawad Kolli
QPR
🔄
57'
Jhon Elmer Solís Romero ↔ Max Bird
Birmingham
🔄
57'
Patrick Roberts ↔ Carlos Vicente
Birmingham
🔄
62'
Rayan Jawad Kolli ↔ Richard Kone
QPR
🟨
69'
Christoph·Klarer
Birmingham
🔄
71'
Liam Millar ↔ Demarai Gray
Birmingham
🔄
72'
Jake Clarke-Salter ↔ Jonathan Varane
QPR
🔄
81'
Paul Smyth ↔ Koki Saito
QPR
🔄
81'
Glen Kamara ↔ Leon Scarlett
QPR
🔄
86'
August Priske ↔ Luis Vasquez
Birmingham
⚽
90+1'
Demarai Gray · Assist: Luis Vasquez
Birmingham

Birmingham vs QPR Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 60.8%
Odds 3.87
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.9%
Odds 1.73
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds 1.87
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
60.8%
3.87 ▥
BTTS Yes
78.9%
1.73 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
1.87 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.13 ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
8.00 ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
13.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Birmingham Win 34%
Draw 5.3%
QPR Win 60.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Birmingham1.47
QPR1.6
Recent Form (Last 5)
Birmingham Birmingham
WWDLW
28 GF / 15 GA
QPR QPR
WLDWL
32 GF / 14 GA
Key Stats
1.87
Average Goals Scored
2
1
Average Goals Conceded
0.88
10
BTTS Yes
10
11
Over 2.5
9
4.8
Shots on Goal
5.3

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Birmingham Birmingham 15 matches
QPR QPR 16 matches
Birmingham Statistic QPR
8 Wins 9
6 Draws 6
1 Losses 1
28 Goals For 32
15 Goals Against 14
1.87 Avg Goals Scored 2
1 Avg Goals Conceded 0.88
10 BTTS Yes 10
12 Over 1.5 11
11 Over 2.5 9
6 Over 3.5 7
5 Clean Sheets 5
1 Failed To Score 4
4.8 Shots On Goal 5.3
14 Total Shots 15.4
6.3 Corners 5.7
50.8% Ball Possession 48.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward QPR. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Birmingham expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and QPR in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward QPR having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Birmingham Analysis

Birmingham are currently 10 in the standings with 11 points from 8 matches. The record of 2 wins, 5 draws, and 1 defeats, together with a 12:11 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through P. Neumann (2 goals), Carlos Vicente (2 goals), L. Millar (1 goals), with creative support from L. Millar (3 assists), A. Cochrane (1 assists), A. Priske (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, their split return of 0 wins, 4 draws, and 0 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

QPR Analysis

Placed 5 with 14 points from 9 outings, QPR continue to operate from a strong competitive position. The record of 3 wins, 5 draws, and 1 defeats, together with a 11:8 goal balance, points toward poor form and have been stuck in a sequence of draws. Much of their attacking threat comes through I. Chair (2 goals), P. Smyth (2 goals), J. Dunne (1 goals), with creative support from I. Chair (1 assists), R. Burrell (1 assists), A. Mbengue (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Birmingham won 5 times, QPR won 6 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 16:19 from Birmingham's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.33 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.7%)
Predicted formations: Birmingham 4-2-3-1 / QPR 4-4-2
Missing players: Birmingham 2, QPR 6
H2H summary: Birmingham wins 5, draws 4, QPR wins 6

Standings

Championship
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 11 7 2 2 16:8 8 23
L W W W W
2 11 6 4 1 30:12 18 22
W W D D W
3 11 6 4 1 22:16 6 22
D W W D D
4 11 5 5 1 20:11 9 20
W W W D W
5 11 6 2 3 15:12 3 20
W W L L D
6 11 6 1 4 18:16 2 19
W L W W W
7 11 6 3 2 21:10 11 17
D W W L W
8 10 5 2 3 18:15 3 17
W L L W W
9
QPR Away
11 4 5 2 15:12 3 17
L W D D D
10 11 4 3 4 17:16 1 15
L W W D W
11 11 4 3 4 15:14 1 15
W L W L L
12 11 4 3 4 18:18 0 15
D L W D D
13 10 4 2 4 13:13 0 14
W W L D D
14 11 3 5 3 15:16 -1 14
W L D W L
15 11 4 2 5 15:18 -3 14
D W L W W
16 11 4 2 5 12:15 -3 14
L L D W L
17 11 3 5 3 10:15 -5 14
L D D L D
18 11 3 3 5 9:19 -10 12
D L L L W
19 11 2 5 4 18:17 1 11
D W L W L
20 11 3 2 6 10:19 -9 11
W L L L L
21 11 3 0 8 17:21 -4 9
L L L L L
22 11 1 5 5 16:21 -5 8
L D W D L
23 11 1 3 7 9:20 -11 6
L L D D L
24 11 1 1 9 9:24 -15 4
L L L D L
Promotion - Premier League
Promotion - Championship (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Promotion - Championship (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)
Relegation - League One