LATVIA VIRSLIGA
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Stadions Celtnieks

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 79.5%
Odds 1.80
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds 1.53
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds 1.63
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
79.5%
1.80
BTTS Yes
78.8%
1.53
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
1.63
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.88
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.00
Probability Distribution
BFC Daugavpils Win 79.5%
Draw 13.2%
Tukums Win 7.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
BFC Daugavpils1.47
Tukums1.52
Recent Form (Last 5)
BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils
WWDLW
38 GF / 46 GA
Tukums Tukums
WLDWL
45 GF / 55 GA
Key Stats
1.15
Average Goals Scored
1.61
1.39
Average Goals Conceded
1.96
17
BTTS Yes
25
15
Over 2.5
22
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 33 matches
Tukums Tukums 28 matches
BFC Daugavpils Statistic Tukums
11 Wins 4
6 Draws 10
16 Losses 14
38 Goals For 45
46 Goals Against 55
1.15 Avg Goals Scored 1.61
1.39 Avg Goals Conceded 1.96
17 BTTS Yes 25
20 Over 1.5 27
15 Over 2.5 22
10 Over 3.5 13
7 Clean Sheets 1
11 Failed To Score 2
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Tukums. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Tukums arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Tukums having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

BFC Daugavpils Analysis

BFC Daugavpils come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 5 with 30 points from 24 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 8 wins, 6 draws, and 10 losses, while the 29:30 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on their main attacking players, and defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, their split return of 6 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Tukums Analysis

Tukums approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 9 with 17 points from 24 matches. Their record of 3 wins, 8 draws, and 13 losses, together with goals at 38:48, reflects poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Much of their threat comes through their main attacking players, while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 4 draws, and 8 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, BFC Daugavpils won 7 times, Tukums won 3 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 24:16 from BFC Daugavpils's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.67 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (92.7%)
Predicted formations: BFC Daugavpils 4-2-3-1 / Tukums -
H2H summary: BFC Daugavpils wins 7, draws 5, Tukums wins 3
Last matches: BFC Daugavpils
01.08.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
FS Jelgava
2
1
W
26.07.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Auda
0
1
L
19.07.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Ogre United
4
0
W
04.07.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
FK Liepaja
3
1
W
30.06.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Rīgas FS
1
3
L
25.06.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Riga
0
0
D
20.06.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Grobiņa
1
0
W
16.06.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Super Nova
0
0
D
12.06.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Tukums
1
1
D
31.05.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
FS Jelgava
1
1
D
26.05.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Auda
0
1
L
21.05.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Ogre United
3
1
W
17.05.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
FK Liepaja
1
2
L
13.05.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Rīgas FS
0
1
L
08.05.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Riga
1
3
L
02.05.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Grobiņa
1
1
D
27.04.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Super Nova
0
1
L
21.04.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Tukums
1
1
D
16.04.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
FS Jelgava
1
0
W
12.04.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Auda
3
2
W
Last matches: Tukums
02.08.26
Vir
Tukums
FK Liepaja
2
1
W
27.07.26
Vir
Tukums
Rīgas FS
0
1
L
18.07.26
Vir
Tukums
Riga
1
3
L
05.07.26
Vir
Tukums
Grobiņa
1
3
L
01.07.26
Vir
Tukums
Super Nova
1
2
L
26.06.26
Vir
Tukums
Ogre United
2
3
L
21.06.26
Vir
Tukums
FS Jelgava
1
4
L
17.06.26
Vir
Tukums
Auda
2
1
W
12.06.26
Vir
Tukums
BFC Daugavpils
1
1
D
30.05.26
Vir
Tukums
FK Liepaja
0
3
L
25.05.26
Vir
Tukums
Rīgas FS
1
3
L
20.05.26
Vir
Tukums
Riga
1
3
L
15.05.26
Vir
Tukums
Grobiņa
3
3
D
11.05.26
Vir
Tukums
Super Nova
1
1
D
07.05.26
Vir
Tukums
Ogre United
6
1
W
01.05.26
Vir
Tukums
FS Jelgava
5
0
W
26.04.26
Vir
Tukums
Auda
1
2
L
21.04.26
Vir
Tukums
BFC Daugavpils
1
1
D
17.04.26
Vir
Tukums
FK Liepaja
2
2
D
13.04.26
Vir
Tukums
Rīgas FS
1
2
L
H2H: BFC Daugavpils vs Tukums
12.06.26
H2H
Tukums
BFC Daugavpils
1
1
D
21.04.26
H2H
Tukums
BFC Daugavpils
1
1
D
30.08.25
H2H
Tukums
BFC Daugavpils
0
1
W
21.06.25
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Tukums
1
2
L
30.04.25
H2H
Tukums
BFC Daugavpils
0
0
D
07.03.25
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Tukums
3
0
W
21.09.24
H2H
Tukums
BFC Daugavpils
0
0
D
03.07.24
H2H
Tukums
BFC Daugavpils
1
2
W
12.05.24
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Tukums
4
1
W
30.03.24
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Tukums
3
1
W
01.09.23
H2H
Tukums
BFC Daugavpils
3
0
L
26.06.23
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Tukums
3
1
W
03.05.23
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Tukums
3
3
D
12.03.23
H2H
Tukums
BFC Daugavpils
1
0
L
04.02.23
H2H
Tukums
BFC Daugavpils
1
2
W
Last matches: BFC Daugavpils
01.08.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
FS Jelgava
2
1
W
04.07.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
FK Liepaja
3
1
W
25.06.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Riga
0
0
D
20.06.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Grobiņa
1
0
W
16.06.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Super Nova
0
0
D
26.05.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Auda
0
1
L
21.05.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Ogre United
3
1
W
13.05.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Rīgas FS
0
1
L
08.05.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Riga
1
3
L
27.04.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Super Nova
0
1
L
16.04.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
FS Jelgava
1
0
W
07.04.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Ogre United
2
1
W
03.04.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
FK Liepaja
2
0
W
07.03.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Grobiņa
0
1
L
03.02.26
Fri
BFC Daugavpils
Hegelmann Litauen
2
1
W
17.07.25
UEF
BFC Daugavpils
Vllaznia Shkodër
2
4
L
H2H at home: BFC Daugavpils
21.06.25
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Tukums
1
2
L
07.03.25
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Tukums
3
0
W
12.05.24
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Tukums
4
1
W
30.03.24
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Tukums
3
1
W
26.06.23
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Tukums
3
1
W
03.05.23
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Tukums
3
3
D
Last matches: Tukums
18.07.26
Vir
Tukums
Riga
1
3
L
05.07.26
Vir
Tukums
Grobiņa
1
3
L
26.06.26
Vir
Tukums
Ogre United
2
3
L
21.06.26
Vir
Tukums
FS Jelgava
1
4
L
30.05.26
Vir
Tukums
FK Liepaja
0
3
L
25.05.26
Vir
Tukums
Rīgas FS
1
3
L
15.05.26
Vir
Tukums
Grobiņa
3
3
D
11.05.26
Vir
Tukums
Super Nova
1
1
D
26.04.26
Vir
Tukums
Auda
1
2
L
09.04.26
Vir
Tukums
Riga
3
3
D
15.03.26
Vir
Tukums
Ogre United
1
1
D
08.03.26
Vir
Tukums
FS Jelgava
1
2
L
11.02.26
Fri
Tukums
Kalju Nomme
2
2
D
31.01.26
Fri
Tukums
Panevėžys
1
2
L
H2H away: Tukums
21.06.25
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Tukums
1
2
W
07.03.25
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Tukums
3
0
L
12.05.24
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Tukums
4
1
L
30.03.24
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Tukums
3
1
L
26.06.23
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Tukums
3
1
L
03.05.23
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Tukums
3
3
D
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.91
Draw 3.75
Home 1.80
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.25
Draw 2.41
Home 2.27
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 2.0 1.27
Over 2.25 1.45
Over 2.5 1.63
Over 2.75 1.80
Over 3.0 2.03
Over 3.25 2.28
Over 3.5 2.53
Under 2.0 3.51
Under 2.25 2.64
Under 2.5 2.23
Under 2.75 2.01
Under 3.0 1.76
Under 3.25 1.59
Under 3.5 1.48
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.40
Draw 3.60
Home 1.85
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.75
Draw 2.38
Home 2.38
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.40
Draw 2.75
Home 2.20
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.00
Over 1.5 1.17
Over 2.5 1.57
Over 3.5 2.38
Over 4.5 4.00
Over 5.5 7.00
Over 6.5 10.50
Over 7.5 17.00
Under 0.5 17.00
Under 1.5 4.50
Under 2.5 2.35
Under 3.5 1.53
Under 4.5 1.22
Under 5.5 1.08
Under 6.5 1.02
Under 7.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.73
Draw 3.64
Home 1.79
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.32
Draw 2.26
Home 2.30
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.83
Draw 2.66
Home 2.11
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.02
Over 1.0 1.02
Over 1.25 1.08
Over 1.5 1.16
Over 1.75 1.19
Over 2.0 1.24
Over 2.25 1.44
Over 2.5 1.60
Over 2.75 1.74
Over 3.0 1.94
Over 3.25 2.17
Over 3.5 2.43
Over 3.75 2.83
Over 4.0 3.58
Over 4.25 3.92
Over 4.5 4.25
Over 4.75 5.24
Over 5.0 7.10
Over 5.5 7.70
Over 6.5 10.50
Over 7.5 17.00
Under 0.5 12.30
Under 1.0 9.10
Under 1.25 5.69
Under 1.5 4.15
Under 1.75 3.78
Under 2.0 3.34
Under 2.25 2.57
Under 2.5 2.17
Under 2.75 1.96
Under 3.0 1.70
Under 3.25 1.55
Under 3.5 1.44
Under 3.75 1.33
Under 4.0 1.21
Under 4.25 1.18
Under 4.5 1.15
Under 4.75 1.09
Under 5.0 1.04
Under 5.5 1.03
Under 6.5 1.02
Under 7.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.25
Draw 3.50
Home 1.89
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.60
Draw 2.40
Home 2.35
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.15
Over 2.5 1.52
Over 3.5 2.30
Over 4.5 3.90
Under 1.5 4.30
Under 2.5 2.25
Under 3.5 1.50
Under 4.5 1.18

Standings

Virsliga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 24 20 2 2 56:16 40 62
W W D W W
2 24 19 4 1 72:20 52 61
W W W W D
3 23 13 4 6 38:26 12 43
W D L D W
4 25 9 6 10 31:31 0 33
W L W W L
5 24 9 4 11 31:36 -5 31
L W L W L
6 23 8 3 12 25:35 -10 27
W L W L L
7 25 6 7 12 25:43 -18 25
L L L L W
8 25 4 9 12 17:41 -24 21
L D L W L
9 25 4 8 13 40:49 -9 20
W L L L L
10 24 3 5 16 23:61 -38 14
D L W L W