LATVIA VIRSLIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Stadions Celtnieks
Referee: S. Vasjkovs
BFC Daugavpils
Match Timeline
Super Nova
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
30'
A. Traore ↔ A. Garzha
BFC Daugavpils
🔄
64'
K. Skadmanis ↔ A. Grikovs
Super Nova
🔄
71'
N. Pathe ↔ R. Sitjakovs
Super Nova
🔄
88'
Bamba ↔ R. Iida
Super Nova

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 76.6%
Odds 1.22
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds 1.80
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds 1.82
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
76.6%
1.22
BTTS Yes
78.8%
1.80
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
1.82
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.75
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.00
Probability Distribution
BFC Daugavpils Win 27.8%
Draw 23.4%
Super Nova Win 48.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
BFC Daugavpils1.28
Super Nova1.35
Recent Form (Last 5)
BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils
WWDLW
27 GF / 40 GA
Super Nova Super Nova
WLDWL
25 GF / 33 GA
Key Stats
1.08
Average Goals Scored
1.19
1.6
Average Goals Conceded
1.57
14
BTTS Yes
14
11
Over 2.5
12
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 25 matches
Super Nova Super Nova 21 matches
BFC Daugavpils Statistic Super Nova
7 Wins 7
4 Draws 3
14 Losses 11
27 Goals For 25
40 Goals Against 33
1.08 Avg Goals Scored 1.19
1.6 Avg Goals Conceded 1.57
14 BTTS Yes 14
16 Over 1.5 17
11 Over 2.5 12
7 Over 3.5 4
3 Clean Sheets 3
8 Failed To Score 4
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Super Nova having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Super Nova.

BFC Daugavpils Analysis

So far, BFC Daugavpils have built a campaign that leaves them 6 in the table on 18 points from 16 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 5 wins, 3 draws, and 8 losses, while the 19:24 goal ratio supports the view of poor form . Going forward they rely heavily on R. Ndjiki (6 goals), A. Garzha (5 goals), J. Yakubu (4 goals), with creative support from R. Ndjiki (4 assists), J. Yakubu (3 assists), G. Mihalcovs (3 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 4 wins, 0 draws, and 5 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Super Nova Analysis

Super Nova come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 5 with 20 points from 16 matches. The record of 6 wins, 2 draws, and 8 defeats, together with a 18:23 goal balance, points toward poor form . Much of their attacking threat comes through A. Glaudans (4 goals), V. Lizunovs (4 goals), M. Oss (3 goals), with creative support from Facu (5 assists), A. Glaudans (1 assists), V. Lizunovs (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, the record of 5 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, BFC Daugavpils won 5 times, Super Nova won 4 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 18:15 from BFC Daugavpils's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.2 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (76.6%)
H2H summary: BFC Daugavpils wins 5, draws 6, Super Nova wins 4

Lineups

BFC Daugavpils
Formation
Super Nova
J. Beks
J. Beks
G. Mihalcovs
G. Mihalcovs
Papa
Papa
R. Skrebels
R. Skrebels
Z. Ouled-Haj-M'hand
Z. Ouled-Haj-M'hand
E. Ivanovs
E. Ivanovs
W. Mukwelle
W. Mukwelle
J. Yakubu
J. Yakubu
M. Sylla
M. Sylla
A. Traore
A. Traore
R. Ndjiki
R. Ndjiki
D. Veisbuks
D. Veisbuks
I. Ndiaye
I. Ndiaye
M. Oss
M. Oss
J. Cirulis
J. Cirulis
M. Tihonovics
M. Tihonovics
Facu
Facu
E. Emsis
E. Emsis
K. Skadmanis
K. Skadmanis
V. Lizunovs
V. Lizunovs
Bamba
Bamba
N. Pathe
N. Pathe
BFC Daugavpils 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
12
J. Beks
37
G. Mihalcovs
5
Papa
8
R. Skrebels
34
Z. Ouled-Haj-M'hand
10
E. Ivanovs
4
W. Mukwelle
11
J. Yakubu
7
M. Sylla
9
A. Traore
↓ 30'
15
R. Ndjiki
Substitutes
99
D. Aronisko
97
D. Kivinda
77
R. Aizups
27
M. Kopilovs
20
C. Taty
22
A. Garzha
↑ 30'
42
A. Saveljevs
3
R. Baikovs
26
R. Vibans
Super Nova 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
90
D. Veisbuks
20
I. Ndiaye
25
M. Oss
5
J. Cirulis
21
M. Tihonovics
14
Facu
6
E. Emsis
22
K. Skadmanis
↓ 64'
10
V. Lizunovs
9
Bamba
↓ 88'
27
N. Pathe
↓ 71'
Substitutes
31
T. Petrovics
18
M. Vasilevskis
24
R. Sitjakovs
↑ 71'
3
R. Iida
↑ 88'
23
N. Barkovskis
8
K. Maksimovs
16
K. Romanovs
29
A. Baghdasaryan
19
A. Grikovs
↑ 64'
Last matches: BFC Daugavpils
12.06.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Tukums
1
1
D
31.05.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
FS Jelgava
1
1
D
26.05.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Auda
0
1
L
21.05.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Ogre United
3
1
W
17.05.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
FK Liepaja
1
2
L
13.05.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Rīgas FS
0
1
L
08.05.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Riga
1
3
L
02.05.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Grobiņa
1
1
D
27.04.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Super Nova
0
1
L
21.04.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Tukums
1
1
D
16.04.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
FS Jelgava
1
0
W
12.04.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Auda
3
2
W
07.04.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Ogre United
2
1
W
03.04.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
FK Liepaja
2
0
W
21.03.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Rīgas FS
1
4
L
14.03.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Riga
2
4
L
07.03.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Grobiņa
0
1
L
28.02.26
Fri
BFC Daugavpils
Rīgas FS
0
1
L
14.02.26
Fri
BFC Daugavpils
Suduva Marijampole
3
5
L
07.02.26
Fri
BFC Daugavpils
Šiauliai
0
1
L
Last matches: Super Nova
12.06.26
Vir
Super Nova
FK Liepaja
1
2
L
29.05.26
Vir
Super Nova
Rīgas FS
1
2
L
24.05.26
Vir
Super Nova
Riga
0
3
L
20.05.26
Vir
Super Nova
Grobiņa
2
0
W
16.05.26
Vir
Super Nova
Ogre United
3
1
W
11.05.26
Vir
Super Nova
Tukums
1
1
D
06.05.26
Vir
Super Nova
FS Jelgava
0
1
L
01.05.26
Vir
Super Nova
Auda
1
2
L
27.04.26
Vir
Super Nova
BFC Daugavpils
1
0
W
23.04.26
Vir
Super Nova
FK Liepaja
1
2
L
18.04.26
Vir
Super Nova
Rīgas FS
0
2
L
14.04.26
Vir
Super Nova
Riga
1
4
L
09.04.26
Vir
Super Nova
Grobiņa
1
0
W
03.04.26
Vir
Super Nova
Ogre United
2
1
W
22.03.26
Vir
Super Nova
Tukums
2
1
W
15.03.26
Vir
Super Nova
FS Jelgava
1
1
D
08.03.26
Vir
Super Nova
Auda
1
2
L
28.02.26
Fri
Super Nova
Paide
0
1
L
21.02.26
Fri
Super Nova
Kalju Nomme
1
1
D
11.02.26
Fri
Super Nova
Trans Narva
3
1
W
H2H: BFC Daugavpils vs Super Nova
16.06.26
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Super Nova
0
0
D
27.04.26
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Super Nova
0
1
L
25.10.25
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Super Nova
2
2
D
02.08.25
H2H
Super Nova
BFC Daugavpils
1
1
D
01.06.25
H2H
Super Nova
BFC Daugavpils
4
1
L
15.04.25
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Super Nova
1
1
D
23.09.23
H2H
Super Nova
BFC Daugavpils
0
1
W
05.07.23
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Super Nova
2
0
W
14.05.23
H2H
Super Nova
BFC Daugavpils
0
4
W
01.04.23
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Super Nova
3
0
W
19.02.23
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Super Nova
1
4
L
29.10.22
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Super Nova
1
1
D
20.08.22
H2H
Super Nova
BFC Daugavpils
1
0
L
21.06.22
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Super Nova
1
0
W
19.04.22
H2H
Super Nova
BFC Daugavpils
0
0
D
Last matches: BFC Daugavpils
26.05.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Auda
0
1
L
21.05.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Ogre United
3
1
W
13.05.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Rīgas FS
0
1
L
08.05.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Riga
1
3
L
27.04.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Super Nova
0
1
L
16.04.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
FS Jelgava
1
0
W
07.04.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Ogre United
2
1
W
03.04.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
FK Liepaja
2
0
W
07.03.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Grobiņa
0
1
L
03.02.26
Fri
BFC Daugavpils
Hegelmann Litauen
2
1
W
17.07.25
UEF
BFC Daugavpils
Vllaznia Shkodër
2
4
L
H2H at home: BFC Daugavpils
16.06.26
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Super Nova
0
0
D
27.04.26
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Super Nova
0
1
L
25.10.25
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Super Nova
2
2
D
15.04.25
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Super Nova
1
1
D
05.07.23
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Super Nova
2
0
W
01.04.23
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Super Nova
3
0
W
19.02.23
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Super Nova
1
4
L
29.10.22
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Super Nova
1
1
D
21.06.22
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Super Nova
1
0
W
Last matches: Super Nova
12.06.26
Vir
Super Nova
FK Liepaja
1
2
L
24.05.26
Vir
Super Nova
Riga
0
3
L
20.05.26
Vir
Super Nova
Grobiņa
2
0
W
06.05.26
Vir
Super Nova
FS Jelgava
0
1
L
27.04.26
Vir
Super Nova
BFC Daugavpils
1
0
W
18.04.26
Vir
Super Nova
Rīgas FS
0
2
L
09.04.26
Vir
Super Nova
Grobiņa
1
0
W
03.04.26
Vir
Super Nova
Ogre United
2
1
W
22.03.26
Vir
Super Nova
Tukums
2
1
W
08.03.26
Vir
Super Nova
Auda
1
2
L
28.02.26
Fri
Super Nova
Paide
0
1
L
21.02.26
Fri
Super Nova
Kalju Nomme
1
1
D
11.02.26
Fri
Super Nova
Trans Narva
3
1
W
14.01.26
Fri
Super Nova
Rīgas FS
2
5
L
H2H away: Super Nova
16.06.26
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Super Nova
0
0
D
27.04.26
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Super Nova
0
1
W
25.10.25
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Super Nova
2
2
D
15.04.25
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Super Nova
1
1
D
05.07.23
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Super Nova
2
0
L
01.04.23
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Super Nova
3
0
L
19.02.23
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Super Nova
1
4
W
29.10.22
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Super Nova
1
1
D
21.06.22
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Super Nova
1
0
L
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 4.06
Draw 3.72
Home 1.78
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.51
Draw 2.28
Home 2.32
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.75 1.30
Over 2.0 1.38
Over 2.25 1.60
Over 2.5 1.82
Over 2.75 2.03
Over 3.0 2.39
Over 3.25 2.71
Under 1.75 3.31
Under 2.0 2.90
Under 2.25 2.30
Under 2.5 1.99
Under 2.75 1.76
Under 3.0 1.53
Under 3.25 1.43
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 4.00
Draw 3.50
Home 1.73
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.50
Draw 2.20
Home 2.30
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.75
Draw 2.50
Home 2.25
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.05
Over 1.5 1.28
Over 2.5 1.90
Over 3.5 3.25
Over 4.5 6.00
Over 5.5 9.00
Over 6.5 15.00
Over 7.5 21.00
Under 0.5 8.50
Under 1.5 3.50
Under 2.5 1.90
Under 3.5 1.33
Under 4.5 1.11
Under 5.5 1.04
Under 6.5 1.01
Under 7.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.96
Draw 3.56
Home 1.76
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.60
Draw 2.15
Home 2.34
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 4.16
Draw 2.51
Home 2.12
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.04
Over 0.75 1.01
Over 1.0 1.04
Over 1.25 1.10
Over 1.5 1.21
Over 1.75 1.27
Over 2.0 1.34
Over 2.25 1.58
Over 2.5 1.79
Over 2.75 2.00
Over 3.0 2.35
Over 3.25 2.66
Over 3.5 2.97
Over 3.75 3.58
Over 4.0 4.95
Over 4.25 5.35
Over 4.5 5.75
Over 4.75 7.40
Over 5.5 13.00
Over 6.5 15.00
Over 7.5 21.00
Under 0.5 10.80
Under 0.75 8.65
Under 1.0 7.90
Under 1.25 5.04
Under 1.5 3.58
Under 1.75 3.14
Under 2.0 2.78
Under 2.25 2.21
Under 2.5 1.90
Under 2.75 1.71
Under 3.0 1.47
Under 3.25 1.37
Under 3.5 1.30
Under 3.75 1.21
Under 4.0 1.11
Under 4.25 1.09
Under 4.5 1.07
Under 4.75 1.03
Under 5.5 1.03
Under 6.5 1.01
Under 7.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.55
Draw 3.30
Home 1.91
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.95
Draw 2.20
Home 2.48
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.65
Draw 2.50
Home 2.28
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.26
Over 2.5 1.87
Over 3.5 3.15
Over 4.5 5.60
Under 1.5 3.25
Under 2.5 1.77
Under 3.5 1.28
Under 4.5 1.08

Standings

Virsliga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 18 15 1 2 42:14 28 46
L W W W W
2 18 14 3 1 56:19 37 45
W W W W W
3 18 11 2 5 34:23 11 35
L D W W W
4 18 7 4 7 23:25 -2 25
L W W D L
5 18 6 3 9 19:25 -6 21
D L L L W
6 18 5 5 8 20:25 -5 20
D D D L W
7 18 3 8 7 32:32 0 17
W D L L L
8 18 3 7 8 12:29 -17 16
W L L D L
9 18 3 7 8 13:33 -20 16
L D D D L
10 18 1 4 13 16:42 -26 7
W L L D L
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Virsliga (Relegation)
Relegation - Nakotnes liga