LATVIA VIRSLIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Stadions Celtnieks
Referee: A. Griscenko
BFC Daugavpils
Match Timeline
Rīgas FS
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
34'
D. Lemajic · Assist: M. Talla
Rīgas FS
🔄
46'
G. Mankenda ↔ M. Kigurs
Rīgas FS
🔄
66'
M. Talla ↔ A. Kouadio
Rīgas FS
🔄
66'
D. Lemajic ↔ I. Diomande
Rīgas FS
🟨
72'
R. Aizups
BFC Daugavpils
🔄
72'
R. Skrebels ↔ R. Aizups
BFC Daugavpils
🟨
90+3'
A. Kouadio
Rīgas FS

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 72.6%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 29.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 29%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
72.6%
-
BTTS BTTS No
29.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
29%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
BFC Daugavpils Win 27.4%
Draw 0%
Rīgas FS Win 72.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
BFC Daugavpils1.07
Rīgas FS2.05
Recent Form (Last 5)
BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils
WWDLW
21 GF / 33 GA
Rīgas FS Rīgas FS
WLDWL
52 GF / 23 GA
Key Stats
1.11
Average Goals Scored
2.26
1.74
Average Goals Conceded
1
10
BTTS Yes
11
9
Over 2.5
12
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 19 matches
Rīgas FS Rīgas FS 23 matches
BFC Daugavpils Statistic Rīgas FS
6 Wins 17
2 Draws 4
11 Losses 2
21 Goals For 52
33 Goals Against 23
1.11 Avg Goals Scored 2.26
1.74 Avg Goals Conceded 1
10 BTTS Yes 11
12 Over 1.5 17
9 Over 2.5 12
6 Over 3.5 10
3 Clean Sheets 10
6 Failed To Score 2
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Rīgas FS's more proactive style and BFC Daugavpils's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Rīgas FS having the stronger overall control. Rīgas FS look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Rīgas FS carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 28 points while BFC Daugavpils sit 5 on 14, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Rīgas FS. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

BFC Daugavpils Analysis

BFC Daugavpils arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 5 place with 14 points after 11 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 4 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses, while the 14:18 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on A. Garzha (4 goals), J. Yakubu (4 goals), R. Ndjiki (3 goals), with creative support from R. Ndjiki (3 assists), Z. Ouled-Haj-M'hand (3 assists), A. Garzha (2 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, the record of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Rīgas FS Analysis

Rīgas FS come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 1 place with 28 points after 11 matches. They have recorded 9 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses, with a 25:9 goal return and very strong form with results showing strong momentum. In attack they lean heavily on J. Ikaunieks (5 goals), S. Panic (5 goals), D. Lemajic (3 goals), with creative support from R. Savalnieks (4 assists), L. Odisharia (3 assists), J. Ikaunieks (2 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, their record of 5 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses points to a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, BFC Daugavpils won 0 times, Rīgas FS won 14 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 10:47 from BFC Daugavpils's perspective. 11 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 3.8 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: BFC Daugavpils - / Rīgas FS 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: BFC Daugavpils wins 0, draws 1, Rīgas FS wins 14

Lineups

BFC Daugavpils
Formation
Rīgas FS
J. Beks
J. Beks
G. Mihalcovs
G. Mihalcovs
R. Skrebels
R. Skrebels
C. Taty
C. Taty
Z. Ouled-Haj-M'hand
Z. Ouled-Haj-M'hand
J. Yakubu
J. Yakubu
W. Mukwelle
W. Mukwelle
A. Traore
A. Traore
M. Kopilovs
M. Kopilovs
A. Garzha
A. Garzha
E. Pinaskins
E. Pinaskins
J. Nerugals
J. Nerugals
A. Filipovic
A. Filipovic
R. Veips
R. Veips
Z. Lipuscek
Z. Lipuscek
G. Mankenda
G. Mankenda
S. Panic
S. Panic
M. Saidy
M. Saidy
M. Talla
🎯
M. Talla
J. Ikaunieks
J. Ikaunieks
D. Lemajic
D. Lemajic
D. Zelenkovs
D. Zelenkovs
BFC Daugavpils 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
12
J. Beks
37
G. Mihalcovs
8
R. Skrebels
↓ 72'
20
C. Taty
34
Z. Ouled-Haj-M'hand
11
J. Yakubu
4
W. Mukwelle
9
A. Traore
27
M. Kopilovs
22
A. Garzha
19
E. Pinaskins
Substitutes
1
J. Saveljevs
99
D. Aronisko
77
R. Aizups
↑ 72' 🟨 72'
7
M. Sylla
66
K. Bujanovs
10
E. Ivanovs
42
A. Saveljevs
2
R. Baikovs
26
R. Vibans
Rīgas FS 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
16
J. Nerugals
6
A. Filipovic
4
R. Veips
43
Z. Lipuscek
77
G. Mankenda
↓ 46'
26
S. Panic
66
M. Saidy
70
M. Talla
🎯 34' ↓ 66'
10
J. Ikaunieks
22
D. Lemajic
⚽ 34' ↓ 66'
18
D. Zelenkovs
Substitutes
35
M. Maric
11
R. Savalnieks
17
A. Kouadio
↑ 66' 🟨 90+3'
21
N. Dusalijevs
5
N. Sliede
49
M. Kigurs
↑ 46'
7
I. Diomande
↑ 66'
30
H. Njie
81
S. Rakic
Last matches: BFC Daugavpils
19.07.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Ogre United
4
0
W
04.07.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
FK Liepaja
3
1
W
30.06.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Rīgas FS
1
3
L
25.06.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Riga
0
0
D
20.06.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Grobiņa
1
0
W
16.06.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Super Nova
0
0
D
12.06.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Tukums
1
1
D
31.05.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
FS Jelgava
1
1
D
26.05.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Auda
0
1
L
21.05.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Ogre United
3
1
W
17.05.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
FK Liepaja
1
2
L
08.05.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Riga
1
3
L
02.05.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Grobiņa
1
1
D
27.04.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Super Nova
0
1
L
21.04.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Tukums
1
1
D
16.04.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
FS Jelgava
1
0
W
12.04.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Auda
3
2
W
07.04.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Ogre United
2
1
W
03.04.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
FK Liepaja
2
0
W
21.03.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Rīgas FS
1
4
L
Last matches: Rīgas FS
23.07.26
UEF
Rīgas FS
Vestri
4
1
W
20.07.26
Vir
Rīgas FS
FS Jelgava
1
0
W
16.07.26
UEF
Rīgas FS
Glentoran
2
0
W
09.07.26
UEF
Rīgas FS
Glentoran
2
1
W
04.07.26
Vir
Rīgas FS
Auda
1
1
D
30.06.26
Vir
Rīgas FS
BFC Daugavpils
3
1
W
26.06.26
Vir
Rīgas FS
FK Liepaja
2
0
W
22.06.26
Vir
Rīgas FS
Ogre United
6
0
W
17.06.26
Vir
Rīgas FS
Riga
1
2
L
13.06.26
Vir
Rīgas FS
Grobiņa
3
1
W
29.05.26
Vir
Rīgas FS
Super Nova
2
1
W
25.05.26
Vir
Rīgas FS
Tukums
3
1
W
21.05.26
Vir
Rīgas FS
FS Jelgava
4
0
W
17.05.26
Vir
Rīgas FS
Auda
3
0
W
08.05.26
Vir
Rīgas FS
FK Liepaja
5
0
W
02.05.26
Vir
Rīgas FS
Ogre United
4
3
W
28.04.26
Vir
Rīgas FS
Riga
3
3
D
22.04.26
Vir
Rīgas FS
Grobiņa
1
0
W
18.04.26
Vir
Rīgas FS
Super Nova
2
0
W
13.04.26
Vir
Rīgas FS
Tukums
2
1
W
H2H: BFC Daugavpils vs Rīgas FS
30.06.26
H2H
Rīgas FS
BFC Daugavpils
3
1
L
13.05.26
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Rīgas FS
0
1
L
21.03.26
H2H
Rīgas FS
BFC Daugavpils
4
1
L
28.02.26
H2H
Rīgas FS
BFC Daugavpils
1
0
L
21.09.25
H2H
Rīgas FS
BFC Daugavpils
5
1
L
30.06.25
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Rīgas FS
1
7
L
09.05.25
H2H
Rīgas FS
BFC Daugavpils
5
1
L
15.03.25
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Rīgas FS
1
2
L
06.10.24
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Rīgas FS
0
3
L
17.09.24
H2H
Rīgas FS
BFC Daugavpils
4
1
L
13.07.24
H2H
Rīgas FS
BFC Daugavpils
2
1
L
20.05.24
H2H
Rīgas FS
BFC Daugavpils
5
0
L
07.04.24
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Rīgas FS
1
1
D
29.10.23
H2H
Rīgas FS
BFC Daugavpils
3
1
L
08.08.23
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Rīgas FS
0
1
L
Last matches: BFC Daugavpils
04.07.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
FK Liepaja
3
1
W
25.06.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Riga
0
0
D
20.06.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Grobiņa
1
0
W
16.06.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Super Nova
0
0
D
26.05.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Auda
0
1
L
21.05.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Ogre United
3
1
W
08.05.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Riga
1
3
L
27.04.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Super Nova
0
1
L
16.04.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
FS Jelgava
1
0
W
07.04.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Ogre United
2
1
W
03.04.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
FK Liepaja
2
0
W
07.03.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Grobiņa
0
1
L
03.02.26
Fri
BFC Daugavpils
Hegelmann Litauen
2
1
W
17.07.25
UEF
BFC Daugavpils
Vllaznia Shkodër
2
4
L
H2H at home: BFC Daugavpils
13.05.26
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Rīgas FS
0
1
L
30.06.25
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Rīgas FS
1
7
L
15.03.25
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Rīgas FS
1
2
L
06.10.24
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Rīgas FS
0
3
L
07.04.24
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Rīgas FS
1
1
D
08.08.23
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Rīgas FS
0
1
L
Last matches: Rīgas FS
20.07.26
Vir
Rīgas FS
FS Jelgava
1
0
W
09.07.26
UEF
Rīgas FS
Glentoran
2
1
W
26.06.26
Vir
Rīgas FS
FK Liepaja
2
0
W
17.06.26
Vir
Rīgas FS
Riga
1
2
L
13.06.26
Vir
Rīgas FS
Grobiņa
3
1
W
29.05.26
Vir
Rīgas FS
Super Nova
2
1
W
17.05.26
Vir
Rīgas FS
Auda
3
0
W
02.05.26
Vir
Rīgas FS
Ogre United
4
3
W
22.04.26
Vir
Rīgas FS
Grobiņa
1
0
W
13.04.26
Vir
Rīgas FS
Tukums
2
1
W
08.04.26
Vir
Rīgas FS
FS Jelgava
1
0
W
13.03.26
Vir
Rīgas FS
FK Liepaja
1
0
W
19.02.26
Fri
Rīgas FS
Hvidovre
2
2
D
14.02.26
Fri
Rīgas FS
Dynamo Kyiv
0
2
L
11.02.26
Fri
Rīgas FS
Kolding IF
1
0
W
30.01.26
Fri
Rīgas FS
Kalju Nomme
1
1
D
24.01.26
Fri
Rīgas FS
Paide
2
2
D
17.01.26
Fri
Rīgas FS
Kalju Nomme
2
0
W
21.08.25
UEF
Rīgas FS
Hamrun Spartans
0
1
L
14.08.25
UEF
Rīgas FS
KuPS
0
1
L
H2H away: Rīgas FS
13.05.26
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Rīgas FS
0
1
W
30.06.25
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Rīgas FS
1
7
W
15.03.25
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Rīgas FS
1
2
W
06.10.24
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Rīgas FS
0
3
W
07.04.24
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Rīgas FS
1
1
D
08.08.23
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Rīgas FS
0
1
W

Standings

Virsliga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 23 19 2 2 55:16 39 59
W D W W W
2 23 18 4 1 68:20 48 58
W W W D W
3 22 12 4 6 37:26 11 40
D L D W L
4 23 8 6 9 29:29 0 30
W W L D W
5 22 8 4 10 28:34 -6 28
L W L L L
6 23 8 3 12 25:35 -10 27
W L W L L
7 23 6 7 10 24:39 -15 25
L L W W W
8 23 4 8 11 15:35 -20 20
L W L D L
9 23 3 8 12 38:47 -9 17
L L L L L
10 23 3 4 16 21:59 -38 13
L W L W L
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Virsliga (Relegation)
Relegation - Nakotnes liga