LATVIA VIRSLIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Stadions Celtnieks
Referee: K. Ratnieks
BFC Daugavpils
Match Timeline
Ogre United
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
41'
W. Mukwelle
BFC Daugavpils
45'
R. Ndjiki · Assist: G. Mihalcovs
BFC Daugavpils
🔄
46'
K. Kumakura ↔ R. Aditajs
Ogre United
🔄
46'
K. Hayashi ↔ T. Marusiy
Ogre United
🔄
57'
W. Mukwelle ↔ E. Ivanovs
BFC Daugavpils
59'
A. Garzha · Assist: R. Ndjiki
BFC Daugavpils
🔄
60'
H. Silagailis ↔ M. Pacepko
Ogre United
🔄
63'
D. Sedols ↔ E. Evelons
Ogre United
🔄
71'
M. Sylla ↔ M. Kopilovs
BFC Daugavpils
🔄
71'
A. Traore ↔ E. Pinaskins
BFC Daugavpils
🔄
75'
M. Ivulans ↔ E. Sprukts
Ogre United
77'
M. Pacepko · Assist: E. Sprukts
Ogre United
🟨
90+3'
Z. Ouled-Haj-M'hand
BFC Daugavpils

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 92.1%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 20%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 19.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
92.1%
-
BTTS BTTS No
20%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
19.5%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
BFC Daugavpils Win 92.1%
Draw 7.9%
Ogre United Win 0%
Expected Goals (xG)
BFC Daugavpils1.56
Ogre United1.16
Recent Form (Last 5)
BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils
WWDLW
22 GF / 36 GA
Ogre United Ogre United
WLDWL
12 GF / 35 GA
Key Stats
1.05
Average Goals Scored
0.8
1.71
Average Goals Conceded
2.33
11
BTTS Yes
10
10
Over 2.5
8
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 21 matches
Ogre United Ogre United 15 matches
BFC Daugavpils Statistic Ogre United
6 Wins 0
2 Draws 3
13 Losses 12
22 Goals For 12
36 Goals Against 35
1.05 Avg Goals Scored 0.8
1.71 Avg Goals Conceded 2.33
11 BTTS Yes 10
13 Over 1.5 12
10 Over 2.5 8
6 Over 3.5 5
3 Clean Sheets 0
7 Failed To Score 5
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Ogre United having the stronger overall control. BFC Daugavpils arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 6 with 14 points compared to Ogre United in 10 on 3, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Ogre United. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

BFC Daugavpils Analysis

BFC Daugavpils approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 6 with 14 points from 13 matches. Across the season they have posted 4 wins, 2 draws, and 7 defeats, and the 15:21 goal record continues to suggest poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Their attacking burden often falls on A. Garzha (4 goals), J. Yakubu (4 goals), R. Ndjiki (4 goals), with creative support from J. Yakubu (3 assists), R. Ndjiki (3 assists), Z. Ouled-Haj-M'hand (3 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 3 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Ogre United Analysis

Ogre United sit 10 with 3 points after 13 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 0 wins, 3 draws, and 10 losses, together with goals at 11:32, reflects poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Much of their threat comes through K. Cudars (5 goals), E. Evelons (1 goals), K. Johnson (1 goals), with creative support from M. Kalnins (1 assists), D. Vejkrigers (1 assists), F. Machado (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 0 draws, and 6 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, BFC Daugavpils won 2 times, Ogre United won 0 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 5:2 from BFC Daugavpils's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 3.5 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (100%)
H2H summary: BFC Daugavpils wins 2, draws 0, Ogre United wins 0

Lineups

BFC Daugavpils
Formation
Ogre United
J. Beks
J. Beks
G. Mihalcovs
🎯
G. Mihalcovs
Papa
Papa
C. Taty
C. Taty
Z. Ouled-Haj-M'hand
Z. Ouled-Haj-M'hand
M. Sylla
M. Sylla
W. Mukwelle
W. Mukwelle
A. Traore
A. Traore
J. Yakubu
J. Yakubu
R. Ndjiki
🎯
R. Ndjiki
A. Garzha
A. Garzha
N. Parfjonovs
N. Parfjonovs
D. Vejkrigers
D. Vejkrigers
K. Hayashi
K. Hayashi
M. Marusii
M. Marusii
K. Kumakura
K. Kumakura
T. Mickevics
T. Mickevics
D. Sedols
D. Sedols
M. Ivulans
M. Ivulans
K. Cudars
K. Cudars
K. Johnson
K. Johnson
H. Silagailis
H. Silagailis
BFC Daugavpils 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
12
J. Beks
37
G. Mihalcovs
🎯 45'
5
Papa
20
C. Taty
34
Z. Ouled-Haj-M'hand
🟨 90+3'
7
M. Sylla
↓ 71'
4
W. Mukwelle
⚽ 41' ↓ 57'
9
A. Traore
↓ 71'
11
J. Yakubu
15
R. Ndjiki
⚽ 45' 🎯 59'
22
A. Garzha
⚽ 59'
Substitutes
1
J. Saveljevs
77
R. Aizups
27
M. Kopilovs
↑ 71'
66
K. Bujanovs
8
R. Skrebels
10
E. Ivanovs
↑ 57'
19
E. Pinaskins
↑ 71'
42
A. Saveljevs
2
R. Baikovs
Ogre United 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
1
N. Parfjonovs
6
D. Vejkrigers
5
K. Hayashi
↓ 46'
77
M. Marusii
7
K. Kumakura
↓ 46'
8
T. Mickevics
28
D. Sedols
↓ 63'
21
M. Ivulans
↓ 75'
19
K. Cudars
47
K. Johnson
9
H. Silagailis
↓ 60'
Substitutes
32
L. Dalbins
13
K. Gulbis
14
R. Aditajs
↑ 46'
18
E. Evelons
↑ 63'
37
M. Lormanis
11
M. Pacepko
⚽ 77' ↑ 60'
3
T. Marusiy
↑ 46'
23
E. Sprukts
🎯 77' ↑ 75'
Last matches: BFC Daugavpils
16.06.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Super Nova
0
0
D
12.06.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Tukums
1
1
D
31.05.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
FS Jelgava
1
1
D
26.05.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Auda
0
1
L
17.05.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
FK Liepaja
1
2
L
13.05.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Rīgas FS
0
1
L
08.05.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Riga
1
3
L
02.05.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Grobiņa
1
1
D
27.04.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Super Nova
0
1
L
21.04.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Tukums
1
1
D
16.04.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
FS Jelgava
1
0
W
12.04.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Auda
3
2
W
07.04.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Ogre United
2
1
W
03.04.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
FK Liepaja
2
0
W
21.03.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Rīgas FS
1
4
L
14.03.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Riga
2
4
L
07.03.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Grobiņa
0
1
L
28.02.26
Fri
BFC Daugavpils
Rīgas FS
0
1
L
14.02.26
Fri
BFC Daugavpils
Suduva Marijampole
3
5
L
07.02.26
Fri
BFC Daugavpils
Šiauliai
0
1
L
Last matches: Ogre United
17.06.26
Vir
Ogre United
FS Jelgava
2
0
W
13.06.26
Vir
Ogre United
Riga
1
4
L
30.05.26
Vir
Ogre United
Auda
0
2
L
25.05.26
Vir
Ogre United
Grobiņa
1
1
D
16.05.26
Vir
Ogre United
Super Nova
1
3
L
12.05.26
Vir
Ogre United
FK Liepaja
1
4
L
07.05.26
Vir
Ogre United
Tukums
1
6
L
02.05.26
Vir
Ogre United
Rīgas FS
3
4
L
27.04.26
Vir
Ogre United
FS Jelgava
0
1
L
22.04.26
Vir
Ogre United
Riga
0
4
L
17.04.26
Vir
Ogre United
Auda
1
1
D
13.04.26
Vir
Ogre United
Grobiņa
1
1
D
07.04.26
Vir
Ogre United
BFC Daugavpils
1
2
L
03.04.26
Vir
Ogre United
Super Nova
1
2
L
20.03.26
Vir
Ogre United
FK Liepaja
0
1
L
15.03.26
Vir
Ogre United
Tukums
1
1
D
06.03.26
Vir
Ogre United
Rīgas FS
0
2
L
14.02.26
Fri
Ogre United
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1
2
L
07.02.26
Fri
Ogre United
Flora Tallinn
0
1
L
H2H: BFC Daugavpils vs Ogre United
21.05.26
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Ogre United
3
1
W
07.04.26
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Ogre United
2
1
W
Last matches: BFC Daugavpils
16.06.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Super Nova
0
0
D
26.05.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Auda
0
1
L
13.05.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Rīgas FS
0
1
L
08.05.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Riga
1
3
L
27.04.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Super Nova
0
1
L
16.04.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
FS Jelgava
1
0
W
07.04.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Ogre United
2
1
W
03.04.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
FK Liepaja
2
0
W
07.03.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Grobiņa
0
1
L
03.02.26
Fri
BFC Daugavpils
Hegelmann Litauen
2
1
W
17.07.25
UEF
BFC Daugavpils
Vllaznia Shkodër
2
4
L
H2H at home: BFC Daugavpils
21.05.26
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Ogre United
3
1
W
07.04.26
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Ogre United
2
1
W
Last matches: Ogre United
17.06.26
Vir
Ogre United
FS Jelgava
2
0
W
30.05.26
Vir
Ogre United
Auda
0
2
L
16.05.26
Vir
Ogre United
Super Nova
1
3
L
12.05.26
Vir
Ogre United
FK Liepaja
1
4
L
07.05.26
Vir
Ogre United
Tukums
1
6
L
22.04.26
Vir
Ogre United
Riga
0
4
L
07.04.26
Vir
Ogre United
BFC Daugavpils
1
2
L
06.03.26
Vir
Ogre United
Rīgas FS
0
2
L
14.02.26
Fri
Ogre United
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1
2
L
07.02.26
Fri
Ogre United
Flora Tallinn
0
1
L
H2H away: Ogre United
21.05.26
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Ogre United
3
1
L
07.04.26
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Ogre United
2
1
L

Standings

Virsliga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 18 15 1 2 42:14 28 46
L W W W W
2 18 14 3 1 56:19 37 45
W W W W W
3 18 11 2 5 34:23 11 35
L D W W W
4 18 7 4 7 23:25 -2 25
L W W D L
5 18 6 3 9 19:25 -6 21
D L L L W
6 18 5 5 8 20:25 -5 20
D D D L W
7 18 3 8 7 32:32 0 17
W D L L L
8 18 3 7 8 12:29 -17 16
W L L D L
9 18 3 7 8 13:33 -20 16
L D D D L
10 18 1 4 13 16:42 -26 7
W L L D L
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Virsliga (Relegation)
Relegation - Nakotnes liga