LATVIA VIRSLIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Stadions Celtnieks
BFC Daugavpils
Match Timeline
Grobiņa
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
11'
E. Ivanovs
BFC Daugavpils
🟨
51'
G. Kluskins
Grobiņa
52'
W. Mukwelle
BFC Daugavpils
🟨
54'
R. Baravykas
Grobiņa
🔄
58'
A. Garzha ↔ G. Mihalcovs
BFC Daugavpils
🔄
59'
A. Traore ↔ M. Sylla
BFC Daugavpils
🔄
60'
M. Sidorovs ↔ D. Sirbu
Grobiņa
🔄
72'
K. Rupeiks ↔ A. Kholod
Grobiņa
🔄
72'
O. Rascevskis ↔ D. Dobrecovs
Grobiņa
🟨
80'
G. Mihalcovs
BFC Daugavpils
🟨
86'
O. Olatunde-Matthew
Grobiņa
87'
R. Ndjiki · Assist: R. Ndjiki
BFC Daugavpils
🔄
88'
M. Sylla ↔ E. Pinaskins
BFC Daugavpils

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 79.6%
Odds 1.22
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds 1.80
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 52.4%
Odds 2.02
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
79.6%
1.22
BTTS Yes
71.2%
1.80
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
52.4%
2.02
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
92%
1.21
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.10
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.00
Probability Distribution
BFC Daugavpils Win 44.5%
Draw 35.1%
Grobiņa Win 20.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
BFC Daugavpils1.28
Grobiņa1.24
Recent Form (Last 5)
BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils
WWDLW
27 GF / 40 GA
Grobiņa Grobiņa
WLDWL
26 GF / 41 GA
Key Stats
1.04
Average Goals Scored
1.04
1.54
Average Goals Conceded
1.64
14
BTTS Yes
14
11
Over 2.5
8
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 26 matches
Grobiņa Grobiņa 25 matches
BFC Daugavpils Statistic Grobiņa
7 Wins 5
5 Draws 10
14 Losses 10
27 Goals For 26
40 Goals Against 41
1.04 Avg Goals Scored 1.04
1.54 Avg Goals Conceded 1.64
14 BTTS Yes 14
16 Over 1.5 19
11 Over 2.5 8
7 Over 3.5 6
4 Clean Sheets 4
9 Failed To Score 8
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Grobiņa. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Grobiņa having the stronger overall control.

BFC Daugavpils Analysis

From their first 17 matches, BFC Daugavpils have collected 19 points and now occupy 6 place in the table. Their overall return of 5 wins, 4 draws, and 8 losses with goals at 20:25 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by R. Ndjiki (7 goals), A. Garzha (5 goals), J. Yakubu (4 goals), with creative support from R. Ndjiki (4 assists), J. Yakubu (4 assists), G. Mihalcovs (3 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, the record of 4 wins, 0 draws, and 5 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Grobiņa Analysis

So far, Grobiņa have built a campaign that leaves them 9 in the table on 13 points from 16 matches. Their overall return of 2 wins, 7 draws, and 7 losses with goals at 10:26 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by A. Puzirevskis (4 goals), A. Kholod (2 goals), R. Baravykas (2 goals), with creative support from M. Sidorovs (2 assists), A. Puzirevskis (1 assists), R. Baravykas (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, the record of 2 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 12 head-to-head meetings, BFC Daugavpils won 7 times, Grobiņa won 4 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 24:15 from BFC Daugavpils's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 3.25 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (79.6%)
H2H summary: BFC Daugavpils wins 7, draws 1, Grobiņa wins 4
Last matches: BFC Daugavpils
16.06.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Super Nova
0
0
D
12.06.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Tukums
1
1
D
31.05.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
FS Jelgava
1
1
D
26.05.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Auda
0
1
L
21.05.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Ogre United
3
1
W
17.05.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
FK Liepaja
1
2
L
13.05.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Rīgas FS
0
1
L
08.05.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Riga
1
3
L
02.05.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Grobiņa
1
1
D
27.04.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Super Nova
0
1
L
21.04.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Tukums
1
1
D
16.04.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
FS Jelgava
1
0
W
12.04.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Auda
3
2
W
07.04.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Ogre United
2
1
W
03.04.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
FK Liepaja
2
0
W
21.03.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Rīgas FS
1
4
L
14.03.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Riga
2
4
L
07.03.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Grobiņa
0
1
L
28.02.26
Fri
BFC Daugavpils
Rīgas FS
0
1
L
14.02.26
Fri
BFC Daugavpils
Suduva Marijampole
3
5
L
Last matches: Grobiņa
16.06.26
Vir
Grobiņa
FK Liepaja
1
0
W
13.06.26
Vir
Grobiņa
Rīgas FS
1
3
L
29.05.26
Vir
Grobiņa
Riga
0
2
L
25.05.26
Vir
Grobiņa
Ogre United
1
1
D
20.05.26
Vir
Grobiņa
Super Nova
0
2
L
15.05.26
Vir
Grobiņa
Tukums
3
3
D
11.05.26
Vir
Grobiņa
FS Jelgava
0
0
D
07.05.26
Vir
Grobiņa
Auda
0
7
L
02.05.26
Vir
Grobiņa
BFC Daugavpils
1
1
D
28.04.26
Vir
Grobiņa
FK Liepaja
1
1
D
22.04.26
Vir
Grobiņa
Rīgas FS
0
1
L
18.04.26
Vir
Grobiņa
Riga
0
3
L
13.04.26
Vir
Grobiņa
Ogre United
1
1
D
09.04.26
Vir
Grobiņa
Super Nova
0
1
L
05.04.26
Vir
Grobiņa
Tukums
1
1
D
21.03.26
Vir
Grobiņa
FS Jelgava
1
0
W
14.03.26
Vir
Grobiņa
Auda
0
2
L
07.03.26
Vir
Grobiņa
BFC Daugavpils
1
0
W
25.02.26
Fri
Grobiņa
Metta / LU
3
1
W
15.02.26
Fri
Grobiņa
Hegelmann Litauen
1
2
L
H2H: BFC Daugavpils vs Grobiņa
02.05.26
H2H
Grobiņa
BFC Daugavpils
1
1
D
07.03.26
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Grobiņa
0
1
L
15.09.25
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Grobiņa
3
2
W
26.06.25
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Grobiņa
3
2
W
04.05.25
H2H
Grobiņa
BFC Daugavpils
1
0
L
11.03.25
H2H
Grobiņa
BFC Daugavpils
3
2
L
14.09.24
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Grobiņa
4
0
W
27.06.24
H2H
Grobiņa
BFC Daugavpils
3
0
L
07.05.24
H2H
Grobiņa
BFC Daugavpils
1
3
W
16.03.24
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Grobiņa
2
0
W
28.10.17
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Grobiņa
4
0
W
01.10.17
H2H
Grobiņa
BFC Daugavpils
1
2
W
Last matches: BFC Daugavpils
16.06.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Super Nova
0
0
D
26.05.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Auda
0
1
L
21.05.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Ogre United
3
1
W
13.05.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Rīgas FS
0
1
L
08.05.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Riga
1
3
L
27.04.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Super Nova
0
1
L
16.04.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
FS Jelgava
1
0
W
07.04.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Ogre United
2
1
W
03.04.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
FK Liepaja
2
0
W
07.03.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Grobiņa
0
1
L
03.02.26
Fri
BFC Daugavpils
Hegelmann Litauen
2
1
W
17.07.25
UEF
BFC Daugavpils
Vllaznia Shkodër
2
4
L
H2H at home: BFC Daugavpils
07.03.26
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Grobiņa
0
1
L
15.09.25
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Grobiņa
3
2
W
26.06.25
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Grobiņa
3
2
W
14.09.24
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Grobiņa
4
0
W
16.03.24
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Grobiņa
2
0
W
28.10.17
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Grobiņa
4
0
W
Last matches: Grobiņa
29.05.26
Vir
Grobiņa
Riga
0
2
L
25.05.26
Vir
Grobiņa
Ogre United
1
1
D
07.05.26
Vir
Grobiņa
Auda
0
7
L
28.04.26
Vir
Grobiņa
FK Liepaja
1
1
D
13.04.26
Vir
Grobiņa
Ogre United
1
1
D
05.04.26
Vir
Grobiņa
Tukums
1
1
D
21.03.26
Vir
Grobiņa
FS Jelgava
1
0
W
07.03.26
Vir
Grobiņa
BFC Daugavpils
1
0
W
25.02.26
Fri
Grobiņa
Metta / LU
3
1
W
15.02.26
Fri
Grobiņa
Hegelmann Litauen
1
2
L
24.01.26
Fri
Grobiņa
Suduva Marijampole
1
1
D
21.01.26
Fri
Grobiņa
Rīgas FS
2
3
L
H2H away: Grobiņa
07.03.26
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Grobiņa
0
1
W
15.09.25
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Grobiņa
3
2
L
26.06.25
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Grobiņa
3
2
L
14.09.24
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Grobiņa
4
0
L
16.03.24
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Grobiņa
2
0
L
28.10.17
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Grobiņa
4
0
L
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.94
Draw 3.45
Home 1.92
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.47
Draw 2.22
Home 2.48
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.75 1.38
Over 2.0 1.49
Over 2.25 1.75
Over 2.5 2.02
Over 2.75 2.29
Over 3.0 2.77
Over 3.25 3.11
Under 1.75 2.96
Under 2.0 2.56
Under 2.25 2.08
Under 2.5 1.83
Under 2.75 1.62
Under 3.0 1.43
Under 3.25 1.35
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.50
Draw 3.30
Home 1.91
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.00
Draw 2.20
Home 2.50
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.60
Draw 2.50
Home 2.30
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.06
Over 1.5 1.30
Over 2.5 2.00
Over 3.5 3.40
Over 4.5 6.50
Over 5.5 10.00
Over 6.5 17.00
Over 7.5 21.00
Under 0.5 8.00
Under 1.5 3.40
Under 2.5 1.80
Under 3.5 1.30
Under 4.5 1.10
Under 5.5 1.03
Under 6.5 1.00
Under 7.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 4.00
Draw 3.28
Home 1.83
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.82
Draw 2.03
Home 2.44
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 4.16
Draw 2.42
Home 2.19
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.01
Over 0.75 1.02
Over 1.0 1.03
Over 1.25 1.15
Over 1.5 1.27
Over 1.75 1.34
Over 2.0 1.44
Over 2.25 1.70
Over 2.5 1.92
Over 2.75 2.15
Over 3.0 2.62
Over 3.25 2.92
Over 3.5 3.20
Over 3.75 4.04
Over 4.0 5.55
Over 4.25 5.94
Over 4.5 6.30
Over 5.5 15.00
Over 6.5 17.00
Over 7.5 21.00
Under 0.5 8.60
Under 0.75 7.95
Under 1.0 7.30
Under 1.25 4.24
Under 1.5 3.14
Under 1.75 2.78
Under 2.0 2.43
Under 2.25 2.01
Under 2.5 1.77
Under 2.75 1.56
Under 3.0 1.38
Under 3.25 1.31
Under 3.5 1.26
Under 3.75 1.16
Under 4.0 1.08
Under 4.25 1.07
Under 4.5 1.06
Under 5.5 1.02
Under 6.5 1.00
Under 7.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 4.10
Draw 3.45
Home 1.73
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.40
Draw 2.23
Home 2.28
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 4.00
Draw 2.60
Home 2.10
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.25
Over 2.5 1.80
Over 3.5 2.95
Over 4.5 5.30
Under 1.5 3.35
Under 2.5 1.84
Under 3.5 1.30
Under 4.5 1.10

Standings

Virsliga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 18 15 1 2 42:14 28 46
L W W W W
2 18 14 3 1 56:19 37 45
W W W W W
3 18 11 2 5 34:23 11 35
L D W W W
4 18 7 4 7 23:25 -2 25
L W W D L
5 18 6 3 9 19:25 -6 21
D L L L W
6 18 5 5 8 20:25 -5 20
D D D L W
7 18 3 8 7 32:32 0 17
W D L L L
8 18 3 7 8 12:29 -17 16
W L L D L
9 18 3 7 8 13:33 -20 16
L D D D L
10 18 1 4 13 16:42 -26 7
W L L D L
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Virsliga (Relegation)
Relegation - Nakotnes liga