LATVIA VIRSLIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Stadions Celtnieks
Referee: A. Griscenko
BFC Daugavpils
Match Timeline
FS Jelgava
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
11'
D. Ayebadiepreye · Assist: C. Taty
BFC Daugavpils
🟨
38'
Z. Ouled-Haj-M'hand
BFC Daugavpils
🟨
45+1'
M. Semesko
FS Jelgava
48'
J. Yakubu · Assist: A. Traore
BFC Daugavpils
🟨
53'
R. Skrebels
BFC Daugavpils
56'
R. Melkis
FS Jelgava
🟨
62'
D. Ayebadiepreye
BFC Daugavpils
🔄
64'
R. Becers ↔ M. Pudil
FS Jelgava
🔄
64'
A. Petersons ↔ F. Hasek
FS Jelgava
🔄
68'
T. Rataj ↔ G. Patika
FS Jelgava
🔄
81'
R. Melkis ↔ A. Dreimanis
FS Jelgava
🟨
87'
K. Alekseiciks
FS Jelgava

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 60%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
60%
-
BTTS Yes
62.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
-
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
BFC Daugavpils Win 60%
Draw 5.9%
FS Jelgava Win 34.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
BFC Daugavpils1.35
FS Jelgava1.16
Recent Form (Last 5)
BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils
WWDLW
36 GF / 45 GA
FS Jelgava FS Jelgava
WLDWL
29 GF / 49 GA
Key Stats
1.13
Average Goals Scored
1
1.41
Average Goals Conceded
1.69
16
BTTS Yes
12
14
Over 2.5
11
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 32 matches
FS Jelgava FS Jelgava 29 matches
BFC Daugavpils Statistic FS Jelgava
10 Wins 7
6 Draws 7
16 Losses 15
36 Goals For 29
45 Goals Against 49
1.13 Avg Goals Scored 1
1.41 Avg Goals Conceded 1.69
16 BTTS Yes 12
19 Over 1.5 21
14 Over 2.5 11
10 Over 3.5 8
7 Clean Sheets 4
11 Failed To Score 14
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward FS Jelgava having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors FS Jelgava. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

BFC Daugavpils Analysis

BFC Daugavpils come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 4 place with 30 points after 23 matches. They have recorded 8 wins, 6 draws, and 9 losses, with a 29:29 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked fairly stable. At home, the split of 6 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their football identity still points toward a more cautious and defensive approach.

FS Jelgava Analysis

So far, FS Jelgava have built a campaign that leaves them 7 in the table on 25 points from 23 matches. The record of 6 wins, 7 draws, and 10 defeats, together with a 24:39 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through their main attacking players, while at the back they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, their split return of 2 wins, 5 draws, and 4 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, BFC Daugavpils won 7 times, FS Jelgava won 2 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:11 from BFC Daugavpils's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.1%)
Predicted formations: BFC Daugavpils 4-2-3-1 / FS Jelgava 5-4-1
H2H summary: BFC Daugavpils wins 7, draws 6, FS Jelgava wins 2

Lineups

BFC Daugavpils
Formation
FS Jelgava
J. Beks
J. Beks
E. Ivanovs
E. Ivanovs
R. Skrebels
R. Skrebels
J. Yakubu
J. Yakubu
J. Novikovs
J. Novikovs
K. Aļekseičiks
K. Aļekseičiks
A. Pētersons
A. Pētersons
R. Bečers
R. Bečers
M. Hašek
M. Hašek
G. Žaleiko
G. Žaleiko
R. Meļķis
R. Meļķis
T. Rataj
T. Rataj
BFC Daugavpils 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
12
J. Beks
G
10
E. Ivanovs
M
8
R. Skrebels
🟨 53'
M
11
J. Yakubu
⚽ 48'
M
Substitutes
77
R. Aizups
D
FS Jelgava 5-4-1
Starting XI
13
J. Novikovs
D
27
K. Aļekseičiks
D
19
A. Pētersons
D
9
R. Bečers
F
11
M. Hašek
M
29
G. Žaleiko
M
8
R. Meļķis
⚽ 56' ↓ 81'
F
17
T. Rataj
↓ 68'
F
Substitutes
23
Ā. Dreimanis
M
24
Filip Hašek
↑ 64'
M
21
G. Kačanovs
D
16
T. Leitis
G
22
M. Pudil
↑ 64'
M
30
S. Belaník
G
Last matches: BFC Daugavpils
08.08.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Tukums
2
0
W
26.07.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Auda
0
1
L
19.07.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Ogre United
4
0
W
04.07.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
FK Liepaja
3
1
W
30.06.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Rīgas FS
1
3
L
25.06.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Riga
0
0
D
20.06.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Grobiņa
1
0
W
16.06.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Super Nova
0
0
D
12.06.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Tukums
1
1
D
31.05.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
FS Jelgava
1
1
D
26.05.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Auda
0
1
L
21.05.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Ogre United
3
1
W
17.05.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
FK Liepaja
1
2
L
13.05.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Rīgas FS
0
1
L
08.05.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Riga
1
3
L
02.05.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Grobiņa
1
1
D
27.04.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Super Nova
0
1
L
21.04.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Tukums
1
1
D
16.04.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
FS Jelgava
1
0
W
12.04.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Auda
3
2
W
Last matches: FS Jelgava
09.08.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Auda
0
1
L
26.07.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
FK Liepaja
0
2
L
20.07.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Rīgas FS
0
1
L
03.07.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Riga
0
3
L
29.06.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Grobiņa
2
0
W
25.06.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Super Nova
5
1
W
21.06.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Tukums
4
1
W
17.06.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Ogre United
0
2
L
13.06.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Auda
1
1
D
31.05.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
BFC Daugavpils
1
1
D
26.05.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
FK Liepaja
1
1
D
21.05.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Rīgas FS
0
4
L
16.05.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Riga
2
2
D
11.05.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Grobiņa
0
0
D
06.05.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Super Nova
1
0
W
01.05.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Tukums
0
5
L
27.04.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Ogre United
1
0
W
21.04.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Auda
2
3
L
16.04.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
BFC Daugavpils
0
1
L
12.04.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
FK Liepaja
1
1
D
H2H: BFC Daugavpils vs FS Jelgava
01.08.26
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
FS Jelgava
2
1
W
31.05.26
H2H
FS Jelgava
BFC Daugavpils
1
1
D
16.04.26
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
FS Jelgava
1
0
W
18.10.25
H2H
FS Jelgava
BFC Daugavpils
0
0
D
27.07.25
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
FS Jelgava
2
0
W
25.05.25
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
FS Jelgava
1
0
W
10.04.25
H2H
FS Jelgava
BFC Daugavpils
4
1
L
01.09.24
H2H
FS Jelgava
BFC Daugavpils
0
0
D
21.06.24
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
FS Jelgava
3
0
W
03.05.24
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
FS Jelgava
1
0
W
09.03.24
H2H
FS Jelgava
BFC Daugavpils
0
0
D
16.09.23
H2H
FS Jelgava
BFC Daugavpils
0
0
D
30.06.23
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
FS Jelgava
1
1
D
26.05.23
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
FS Jelgava
5
2
W
17.03.23
H2H
FS Jelgava
BFC Daugavpils
2
1
L
Last matches: BFC Daugavpils
08.08.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Tukums
2
0
W
04.07.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
FK Liepaja
3
1
W
25.06.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Riga
0
0
D
20.06.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Grobiņa
1
0
W
16.06.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Super Nova
0
0
D
26.05.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Auda
0
1
L
21.05.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Ogre United
3
1
W
13.05.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Rīgas FS
0
1
L
08.05.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Riga
1
3
L
27.04.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Super Nova
0
1
L
16.04.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
FS Jelgava
1
0
W
07.04.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Ogre United
2
1
W
03.04.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
FK Liepaja
2
0
W
07.03.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Grobiņa
0
1
L
03.02.26
Fri
BFC Daugavpils
Hegelmann Litauen
2
1
W
17.07.25
UEF
BFC Daugavpils
Vllaznia Shkodër
2
4
L
H2H at home: BFC Daugavpils
01.08.26
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
FS Jelgava
2
1
W
16.04.26
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
FS Jelgava
1
0
W
27.07.25
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
FS Jelgava
2
0
W
25.05.25
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
FS Jelgava
1
0
W
21.06.24
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
FS Jelgava
3
0
W
03.05.24
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
FS Jelgava
1
0
W
30.06.23
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
FS Jelgava
1
1
D
26.05.23
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
FS Jelgava
5
2
W
Last matches: FS Jelgava
03.07.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Riga
0
3
L
25.06.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Super Nova
5
1
W
13.06.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Auda
1
1
D
21.05.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Rīgas FS
0
4
L
16.05.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Riga
2
2
D
11.05.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Grobiņa
0
0
D
01.05.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Tukums
0
5
L
27.04.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Ogre United
1
0
W
16.04.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
BFC Daugavpils
0
1
L
12.04.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
FK Liepaja
1
1
D
15.03.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Super Nova
1
1
D
27.02.26
Fri
FS Jelgava
FK Liepaja
1
2
L
14.02.26
Fri
FS Jelgava
Šiauliai
0
1
L
01.02.26
Fri
FS Jelgava
Nõmme United
4
1
W
24.01.26
Fri
FS Jelgava
Panevėžys
0
2
L
H2H away: FS Jelgava
01.08.26
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
FS Jelgava
2
1
L
16.04.26
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
FS Jelgava
1
0
L
27.07.25
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
FS Jelgava
2
0
L
25.05.25
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
FS Jelgava
1
0
L
21.06.24
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
FS Jelgava
3
0
L
03.05.24
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
FS Jelgava
1
0
L
30.06.23
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
FS Jelgava
1
1
D
26.05.23
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
FS Jelgava
5
2
L

Standings

Virsliga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 25 21 2 2 62:17 45 65
W W W D W
2 25 20 4 1 76:21 55 64
W W W W W
3 24 14 4 6 39:26 13 46
W W D L D
4 26 10 6 10 33:31 2 36
W W L W W
5 25 10 4 11 33:37 -4 34
W L W L W
6 24 8 3 13 26:37 -11 27
L W L W L
7 26 6 7 13 25:44 -19 25
L L L L L
8 26 4 9 13 18:47 -29 21
L L D L W
9 26 4 8 14 40:51 -11 20
L W L L L
10 25 3 5 17 24:65 -41 14
L D L W L