17.02.2026 20:00
Estádio da Luz
Referee: F. Letexier
Benfica
Match Timeline
Real Madrid
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
50'
Vinicius Junior · Assist: K. Mbappe
Real Madrid
🟨
51'
Vinícius Júnior
Real Madrid
🔄
74'
A. Schjelderup ↔ G. Sudakov
Benfica
🔄
74'
Rafa Silva ↔ R. Rios
Benfica
🟨
78'
Gianluca Prestianni
Benfica
🔄
80'
F. Aursnes ↔ S. Lopes Cabral
Benfica
🔄
81'
G. Prestianni ↔ D. Lukebakio
Benfica
🔄
86'
A. Guler ↔ B. Diaz
Real Madrid
🟨
87'
Kylian Mbappé
Real Madrid
🟨
90+2'
Georgiy Sudakov
Benfica
🔄
90+9'
A. Carreras ↔ D. Carvajal
Real Madrid
🔄
90+4'
E. Camavinga ↔ T. Pitarch
Real Madrid

Benfica vs Real Madrid Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
Probability Distribution
Benfica Win 0%
Draw 0%
Real Madrid Win 0%
Expected Goals (xG)
Benfica1.5
Real Madrid1.69
Recent Form (Last 5)
Benfica Benfica
WWDLW
61 GF / 25 GA
Real Madrid Real Madrid
WLDWL
79 GF / 36 GA
Key Stats
1.79
Average Goals Scored
2.32
0.74
Average Goals Conceded
1.06
13
BTTS Yes
19
17
Over 2.5
22
5.62
Shots on Goal
7.09

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Benfica Benfica 34 matches
Real Madrid Real Madrid 34 matches
Benfica Statistic Real Madrid
21 Wins 25
8 Draws 3
5 Losses 6
61 Goals For 79
25 Goals Against 36
1.79 Avg Goals Scored 2.32
0.74 Avg Goals Conceded 1.06
13 BTTS Yes 19
26 Over 1.5 29
17 Over 2.5 22
8 Over 3.5 13
17 Clean Sheets 13
7 Failed To Score 3
5.62 Shots On Goal 7.09
15.85 Total Shots 19.03
6.03 Corners 6.74
55.1% Ball Possession 59.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

H2H Analysis

Across those 3 head-to-head meetings, Benfica won 1 times, Real Madrid won 2 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 5:5 from Benfica's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 3.33 goals per game.

Predicted formations: Benfica 4-2-3-1 / Real Madrid 4-4-2
H2H summary: Benfica wins 1, draws 0, Real Madrid wins 2

Standings

UEFA Champions League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 8 8 0 0 23:4 19 24
W W W W W
2 8 7 0 1 22:8 14 21
W W W L W
3 8 6 0 2 20:8 12 18
W W W L W
4 8 5 2 1 17:7 10 17
W W W L W
5 8 5 1 2 22:14 8 16
W W W L D
6 8 5 1 2 17:10 7 16
W W L W D
7 8 5 1 2 17:11 6 16
W W L W D
8 8 5 1 2 15:9 6 16
W L W L W
9 8 5 0 3 21:12 9 15
L W L W L
10 8 5 0 3 15:7 8 15
W L L L W
11 8 4 2 2 21:11 10 14
D L D W L
12 8 4 2 2 17:7 10 14
D W D L W
13 8 3 4 1 14:10 4 13
D W W W D
14 8 4 1 3 17:15 2 13
L D W W W
15 8 4 1 3 10:10 0 13
L L W W W
16 8 3 3 2 13:14 -1 12
W L D W W
17 8 3 2 3 19:17 2 11
L L D W L
18 8 3 2 3 10:14 -4 11
W W W L D
19 8 3 1 4 15:17 -2 10
W W L L D
20 8 3 1 4 9:11 -2 10
L D L L W
21 8 2 4 2 8:14 -6 10
D L W D W
22 8 3 1 4 13:21 -8 10
L W L L D
23 8 2 3 3 14:15 -1 9
W W D L L
24 8 3 0 5 10:12 -2 9
W L W W L
25 8 3 0 5 11:14 -3 9
L L W W L
26 8 2 3 3 8:11 -3 9
W L L D W
27 8 3 0 5 8:17 -9 9
W L L W L
28 8 2 2 4 16:16 0 8
L L L W D
29 8 2 2 4 9:14 -5 8
L W D D L
30 8 2 2 4 9:15 -6 8
L D L W D
31 8 2 2 4 12:21 -9 8
L D W W L
32 8 2 0 6 8:21 -13 6
L W W L L
33 8 1 1 6 10:21 -11 4
L L L L D
34 8 0 3 5 5:19 -14 3
L L L D L
35 8 0 1 7 5:18 -13 1
L L L L L
36 8 0 1 7 7:22 -15 1
L L L L L
Promotion - Champions League (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - Champions League (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)