28.01.2026 20:00
Estádio da Luz
Referee: D. Massa
Benfica
Match Timeline
Real Madrid
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
3'
Aurélien Tchouaméni
Real Madrid
🟨
10'
Leandro Barreiro
Benfica
VAR
17'
Gianluca Prestianni
Benfica
⚽
30'
K. Mbappe · Assist: R. Asencio
Real Madrid
⚽
36'
A. Schjelderup · Assist: V. Pavlidis
Benfica
🟨
45+4'
Raúl Asencio
Real Madrid
⚽
45'
V. Pavlidis
Benfica
⚽
54'
A. Schjelderup · Assist: V. Pavlidis
Benfica
🔄
55'
A. Tchouameni ↔ E. Camavinga
Real Madrid
🔄
55'
F. Mastantuono ↔ Rodrygo
Real Madrid
⚽
58'
K. Mbappe · Assist: A. Guler
Real Madrid
🟨
62'
Dean Huijsen
Real Madrid
🟨
66'
Álvaro Carreras
Real Madrid
🔄
79'
D. Huijsen ↔ D. Alaba
Real Madrid
🔄
79'
A. Carreras ↔ B. Diaz
Real Madrid
🔄
79'
A. Guler ↔ J. Cestero Sancho
Real Madrid
🔄
83'
G. Sudakov ↔ E. Barrenechea
Benfica
🟨
85'
Samuel Dahl
Benfica
🔄
87'
G. Prestianni ↔ J. Rego
Benfica
🟨
90+6'
Rodrygo
Real Madrid
🟨
90+6'
Rodrygo
Real Madrid
🟨
90+2'
Raúl Asencio
Real Madrid
🟥
90+6'
Rodrygo
Real Madrid
🟥
90+2'
Raúl Asencio
Real Madrid
🔄
90+3'
A. Schjelderup ↔ A. Silva
Benfica
🔄
90+3'
V. Pavlidis ↔ F. Ivanovic
Benfica
⚽
90'
A. Trubin · Assist: F. Aursnes
Benfica

Benfica vs Real Madrid Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
Probability Distribution
Benfica Win 0%
Draw 0%
Real Madrid Win 0%
Expected Goals (xG)
Benfica1.46
Real Madrid1.66
Recent Form (Last 5)
Benfica Benfica
WWDLW
53 GF / 21 GA
Real Madrid Real Madrid
WLDWL
69 GF / 30 GA
Key Stats
1.77
Average Goals Scored
2.3
0.7
Average Goals Conceded
1
10
BTTS Yes
16
14
Over 2.5
19
5.23
Shots on Goal
7.27

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Benfica Benfica 30 matches
Real Madrid Real Madrid 30 matches
Benfica Statistic Real Madrid
18 Wins 22
7 Draws 3
5 Losses 5
53 Goals For 69
21 Goals Against 30
1.77 Avg Goals Scored 2.3
0.7 Avg Goals Conceded 1
10 BTTS Yes 16
23 Over 1.5 25
14 Over 2.5 19
7 Over 3.5 11
16 Clean Sheets 12
6 Failed To Score 3
5.23 Shots On Goal 7.27
15.13 Total Shots 19.77
5.67 Corners 6.77
55.1% Ball Possession 59.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

H2H Analysis

Across those 3 head-to-head meetings, Benfica won 1 times, Real Madrid won 2 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 5:5 from Benfica's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 3.33 goals per game.

Predicted formations: Benfica 4-2-3-1 / Real Madrid 4-3-3
H2H summary: Benfica wins 1, draws 0, Real Madrid wins 2

Standings

UEFA Champions League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 8 8 0 0 23:4 19 24
W W W W W
2 8 7 0 1 22:8 14 21
W W W L W
3 8 6 0 2 20:8 12 18
W W W L W
4 8 5 2 1 17:7 10 17
W W W L W
5 8 5 1 2 22:14 8 16
W W W L D
6 8 5 1 2 17:10 7 16
W W L W D
7 8 5 1 2 17:11 6 16
W W L W D
8 8 5 1 2 15:9 6 16
W L W L W
9 8 5 0 3 21:12 9 15
L W L W L
10 8 5 0 3 15:7 8 15
W L L L W
11 8 4 2 2 21:11 10 14
D L D W L
12 8 4 2 2 17:7 10 14
D W D L W
13 8 3 4 1 14:10 4 13
D W W W D
14 8 4 1 3 17:15 2 13
L D W W W
15 8 4 1 3 10:10 0 13
L L W W W
16 8 3 3 2 13:14 -1 12
W L D W W
17 8 3 2 3 19:17 2 11
L L D W L
18 8 3 2 3 10:14 -4 11
W W W L D
19 8 3 1 4 15:17 -2 10
W W L L D
20 8 3 1 4 9:11 -2 10
L D L L W
21 8 2 4 2 8:14 -6 10
D L W D W
22 8 3 1 4 13:21 -8 10
L W L L D
23 8 2 3 3 14:15 -1 9
W W D L L
24 8 3 0 5 10:12 -2 9
W L W W L
25 8 3 0 5 11:14 -3 9
L L W W L
26 8 2 3 3 8:11 -3 9
W L L D W
27 8 3 0 5 8:17 -9 9
W L L W L
28 8 2 2 4 16:16 0 8
L L L W D
29 8 2 2 4 9:14 -5 8
L W D D L
30 8 2 2 4 9:15 -6 8
L D L W D
31 8 2 2 4 12:21 -9 8
L D W W L
32 8 2 0 6 8:21 -13 6
L W W L L
33 8 1 1 6 10:21 -11 4
L L L L D
34 8 0 3 5 5:19 -14 3
L L L D L
35 8 0 1 7 5:18 -13 1
L L L L L
36 8 0 1 7 7:22 -15 1
L L L L L
Promotion - Champions League (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - Champions League (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)