CHINA SUPER LEAGUE
--.--.---- --:--
Beijing Guoan
Match Timeline
Shandong Luneng
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟥
23'
Zheng Zheng
Shandong Luneng
🟨
36'
B. Nkololo
Beijing Guoan
🔄
36'
Chen Pu ↔ Peng Xiao
Shandong Luneng
🔄
46'
He Yupeng ↔ Yue Tze-Nam
Beijing Guoan
🔄
58'
B. Nkololo ↔ Cao Yongjing
Beijing Guoan
🔄
61'
Zhang Yuning ↔ Yang Liyu
Beijing Guoan
🟨
63'
Huang Zhengyu
Shandong Luneng
74'
Serginho · Assist: Cao Yongjing
Beijing Guoan
🔄
75'
Xie Wenneng ↔ R. Merkies
Shandong Luneng
81'
Lin Liangming · Assist: Cao Yongjing
Beijing Guoan
🔄
85'
Bai Yang ↔ Deng Jiefu
Beijing Guoan
🔄
86'
F. Abreu ↔ Chi Zhongguo
Beijing Guoan
🔄
89'
Huang Zhengyu ↔ Memet Imran
Shandong Luneng
🔄
89'
V. Qazaishvili ↔ J. Lu
Shandong Luneng

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 83%
Odds 1.22
BTTS
Yes
Probability 88%
Odds 1.40
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 82.2%
Odds 1.39
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
83%
1.22
BTTS Yes
88%
1.40
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
82.2%
1.39
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.15
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.62
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.00
Probability Distribution
Beijing Guoan Win 44.9%
Draw 17%
Shandong Luneng Win 38.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Beijing Guoan1.67
Shandong Luneng1.7
Recent Form (Last 5)
Beijing Guoan Beijing Guoan
WWDLW
27 GF / 23 GA
Shandong Luneng Shandong Luneng
WLDWL
30 GF / 26 GA
Key Stats
1.69
Average Goals Scored
1.88
1.44
Average Goals Conceded
1.63
11
BTTS Yes
12
10
Over 2.5
12
5.44
Shots on Goal
4.69

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Beijing Guoan Beijing Guoan 16 matches
Shandong Luneng Shandong Luneng 16 matches
Beijing Guoan Statistic Shandong Luneng
6 Wins 8
5 Draws 3
5 Losses 5
27 Goals For 30
23 Goals Against 26
1.69 Avg Goals Scored 1.88
1.44 Avg Goals Conceded 1.63
11 BTTS Yes 12
13 Over 1.5 14
10 Over 2.5 12
5 Over 3.5 7
5 Clean Sheets 2
1 Failed To Score 2
5.44 Shots On Goal 4.69
14.75 Total Shots 14.81
6.63 Corners 4.75
61.6% Ball Possession 51.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features Beijing Guoan's more proactive style and Shandong Luneng's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Beijing Guoan expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Shandong Luneng in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Shandong Luneng having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Shandong Luneng. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Beijing Guoan Analysis

So far, Beijing Guoan have built a campaign that leaves them 10 in the table on 15 points from 15 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 5 wins, 5 draws, and 5 losses, while the 26:23 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on their main attacking players, and defensively they have been very solid. At home, the record of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Shandong Luneng Analysis

Shandong Luneng arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 5 place with 18 points after 15 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 7 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses, while the 25:25 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on their main attacking players, and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, the record of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Beijing Guoan won 3 times, Shandong Luneng won 5 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:25 from Beijing Guoan's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 3.14 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (83%)
Predicted formations: Beijing Guoan 4-4-2 / Shandong Luneng 4-3-3
H2H summary: Beijing Guoan wins 3, draws 6, Shandong Luneng wins 5
Last matches: Beijing Guoan
27.06.26
Sup
Beijing Guoan
Wuhan Three Towns
1
0
W
30.05.26
Sup
Beijing Guoan
Chongqing Tongliang Long
3
2
W
23.05.26
Sup
Beijing Guoan
Henan Jianye
1
2
L
19.05.26
Sup
Beijing Guoan
Qingdao Youth Island
1
1
D
15.05.26
Sup
Beijing Guoan
Qingdao Jonoon
4
2
W
10.05.26
Sup
Beijing Guoan
SHANGHAI SIPG
2
2
D
06.05.26
Sup
Beijing Guoan
Dalian Zhixing
3
0
W
02.05.26
Sup
Beijing Guoan
Yunnan Yukun
3
3
D
25.04.26
Sup
Beijing Guoan
Tianjin Teda
2
4
L
21.04.26
Sup
Beijing Guoan
Sichuan Jiuniu
1
0
W
17.04.26
Sup
Beijing Guoan
Hangzhou Greentown
0
0
D
12.04.26
Sup
Beijing Guoan
Chengdu Better City
1
2
L
04.04.26
Sup
Beijing Guoan
Shenyang Urban
1
2
L
21.03.26
Sup
Beijing Guoan
Shanghai Shenhua
1
1
D
14.03.26
Sup
Beijing Guoan
Shandong Luneng
1
2
L
08.03.26
Sup
Beijing Guoan
Wuhan Three Towns
2
0
W
Last matches: Shandong Luneng
27.06.26
Sup
Shandong Luneng
Shenyang Urban
5
1
W
30.05.26
Sup
Shandong Luneng
Chengdu Better City
0
1
L
24.05.26
Sup
Shandong Luneng
Wuhan Three Towns
3
3
D
20.05.26
Sup
Shandong Luneng
Hangzhou Greentown
1
4
L
16.05.26
Sup
Shandong Luneng
Chongqing Tongliang Long
3
1
W
10.05.26
Sup
Shandong Luneng
Sichuan Jiuniu
2
1
W
05.05.26
Sup
Shandong Luneng
Shanghai Shenhua
4
1
W
01.05.26
Sup
Shandong Luneng
Qingdao Youth Island
1
1
D
26.04.26
Sup
Shandong Luneng
Qingdao Jonoon
1
4
L
21.04.26
Sup
Shandong Luneng
Tianjin Teda
2
1
W
17.04.26
Sup
Shandong Luneng
SHANGHAI SIPG
1
1
D
11.04.26
Sup
Shandong Luneng
Henan Jianye
1
0
W
04.04.26
Sup
Shandong Luneng
Dalian Zhixing
1
2
L
21.03.26
Sup
Shandong Luneng
Yunnan Yukun
0
4
L
14.03.26
Sup
Shandong Luneng
Beijing Guoan
2
1
W
07.03.26
Sup
Shandong Luneng
Shenyang Urban
3
0
W
H2H: Beijing Guoan vs Shandong Luneng
14.03.26
H2H
Shandong Luneng
Beijing Guoan
2
1
L
31.08.25
H2H
Shandong Luneng
Beijing Guoan
6
0
L
19.04.25
H2H
Beijing Guoan
Shandong Luneng
6
1
W
30.06.24
H2H
Beijing Guoan
Shandong Luneng
2
0
W
09.03.24
H2H
Shandong Luneng
Beijing Guoan
0
0
D
31.08.23
H2H
Beijing Guoan
Shandong Luneng
1
1
D
30.07.23
H2H
Shandong Luneng
Beijing Guoan
3
0
L
29.04.23
H2H
Beijing Guoan
Shandong Luneng
0
0
D
31.12.22
H2H
Shandong Luneng
Beijing Guoan
3
0
L
09.10.22
H2H
Beijing Guoan
Shandong Luneng
3
3
D
29.12.21
H2H
Beijing Guoan
Shandong Luneng
1
1
D
16.12.21
H2H
Shandong Luneng
Beijing Guoan
2
1
L
22.10.20
H2H
Beijing Guoan
Shandong Luneng
2
1
W
17.10.20
H2H
Shandong Luneng
Beijing Guoan
2
2
D
17.06.20
H2H
Beijing Guoan
Shandong Luneng
0
0
D
Last matches: Beijing Guoan
27.06.26
Sup
Beijing Guoan
Wuhan Three Towns
1
0
W
23.05.26
Sup
Beijing Guoan
Henan Jianye
1
2
L
15.05.26
Sup
Beijing Guoan
Qingdao Jonoon
4
2
W
10.05.26
Sup
Beijing Guoan
SHANGHAI SIPG
2
2
D
06.05.26
Sup
Beijing Guoan
Dalian Zhixing
3
0
W
25.04.26
Sup
Beijing Guoan
Tianjin Teda
2
4
L
12.04.26
Sup
Beijing Guoan
Chengdu Better City
1
2
L
21.03.26
Sup
Beijing Guoan
Shanghai Shenhua
1
1
D
H2H at home: Beijing Guoan
19.04.25
H2H
Beijing Guoan
Shandong Luneng
6
1
W
30.06.24
H2H
Beijing Guoan
Shandong Luneng
2
0
W
31.08.23
H2H
Beijing Guoan
Shandong Luneng
1
1
D
29.04.23
H2H
Beijing Guoan
Shandong Luneng
0
0
D
09.10.22
H2H
Beijing Guoan
Shandong Luneng
3
3
D
29.12.21
H2H
Beijing Guoan
Shandong Luneng
1
1
D
22.10.20
H2H
Beijing Guoan
Shandong Luneng
2
1
W
17.06.20
H2H
Beijing Guoan
Shandong Luneng
0
0
D
Last matches: Shandong Luneng
27.06.26
Sup
Shandong Luneng
Shenyang Urban
5
1
W
30.05.26
Sup
Shandong Luneng
Chengdu Better City
0
1
L
20.05.26
Sup
Shandong Luneng
Hangzhou Greentown
1
4
L
10.05.26
Sup
Shandong Luneng
Sichuan Jiuniu
2
1
W
26.04.26
Sup
Shandong Luneng
Qingdao Jonoon
1
4
L
21.04.26
Sup
Shandong Luneng
Tianjin Teda
2
1
W
11.04.26
Sup
Shandong Luneng
Henan Jianye
1
0
W
21.03.26
Sup
Shandong Luneng
Yunnan Yukun
0
4
L
H2H away: Shandong Luneng
19.04.25
H2H
Beijing Guoan
Shandong Luneng
6
1
L
30.06.24
H2H
Beijing Guoan
Shandong Luneng
2
0
L
31.08.23
H2H
Beijing Guoan
Shandong Luneng
1
1
D
29.04.23
H2H
Beijing Guoan
Shandong Luneng
0
0
D
09.10.22
H2H
Beijing Guoan
Shandong Luneng
3
3
D
29.12.21
H2H
Beijing Guoan
Shandong Luneng
1
1
D
22.10.20
H2H
Beijing Guoan
Shandong Luneng
2
1
L
17.06.20
H2H
Beijing Guoan
Shandong Luneng
0
0
D
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 4.07
Draw 4.22
Home 1.79
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.09
Draw 2.75
Home 2.29
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.12
Over 2.5 1.39
Over 3.0 1.56
Over 3.25 1.76
Over 3.5 1.97
Over 3.75 2.19
Over 4.0 2.58
Over 4.5 3.14
Over 5.5 5.62
Under 1.5 6.68
Under 2.5 3.05
Under 3.0 2.47
Under 3.25 2.11
Under 3.5 1.90
Under 3.75 1.71
Under 4.0 1.53
Under 4.5 1.37
Under 5.5 1.15
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 4.00
Draw 4.20
Home 1.75
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.00
Draw 2.62
Home 2.20
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.60
Draw 3.00
Home 2.00
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.01
Over 1.5 1.10
Over 2.5 1.36
Over 3.5 1.83
Over 4.5 3.00
Over 5.5 5.50
Over 6.5 11.00
Over 7.5 21.00
Over 8.5 41.00
Under 0.5 26.00
Under 1.5 7.00
Under 2.5 3.10
Under 3.5 1.83
Under 4.5 1.36
Under 5.5 1.14
Under 6.5 1.05
Under 7.5 1.01
Under 8.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 4.07
Draw 4.22
Home 1.77
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.05
Draw 2.47
Home 2.18
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.72
Draw 2.98
Home 1.97
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.02
Over 1.0 1.01
Over 1.5 1.06
Over 1.75 1.08
Over 2.0 1.10
Over 2.25 1.23
Over 2.5 1.35
Over 2.75 1.43
Over 3.0 1.58
Over 3.25 1.77
Over 3.5 1.95
Over 3.75 2.13
Over 4.0 2.56
Over 4.25 2.73
Over 4.5 3.47
Over 4.75 3.52
Over 5.0 6.55
Over 5.25 4.90
Over 5.5 8.25
Over 6.0 28.00
Over 6.5 13.20
Over 7.5 26.00
Over 8.5 32.00
Under 0.5 25.00
Under 1.0 27.00
Under 1.5 12.10
Under 1.75 5.99
Under 2.0 8.50
Under 2.25 3.64
Under 2.5 3.40
Under 2.75 2.69
Under 3.0 2.46
Under 3.25 2.08
Under 3.5 1.87
Under 3.75 1.66
Under 4.0 1.54
Under 4.25 1.39
Under 4.5 1.34
Under 4.75 1.23
Under 5.0 1.14
Under 5.25 1.11
Under 5.5 1.10
Under 6.0 1.01
Under 6.5 1.06
Under 7.5 1.02
Under 8.5 1.01
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 4.00
Draw 4.20
Home 1.71
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.90
Draw 2.65
Home 2.08
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.65
Draw 3.10
Home 1.98
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.09
Over 2.0 1.11
Over 2.5 1.34
Over 2.75 1.40
Over 3.0 1.50
Over 3.5 1.88
Over 4.0 2.45
Over 4.25 2.70
Over 4.5 2.95
Over 5.0 4.50
Over 5.25 4.75
Over 5.5 5.00
Under 1.5 6.00
Under 2.0 5.25
Under 2.5 2.95
Under 2.75 2.65
Under 3.0 2.38
Under 3.5 1.81
Under 4.0 1.47
Under 4.25 1.38
Under 4.5 1.33
Under 5.0 1.16
Under 5.25 1.14
Under 5.5 1.13

Standings

Chinese Super League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 16 13 1 2 36:15 21 40
W W L L W
2 17 7 6 4 21:19 2 27
L W L W D
3 17 8 1 8 25:31 -6 25
W L L W D
4 17 7 3 7 31:29 2 24
W L D L D
5 17 5 9 3 22:25 -3 24
W W D W D
6 17 7 5 5 29:23 6 21
W W W L D
7 17 8 3 6 30:28 2 21
L W L D L
8 17 6 2 9 24:29 -5 20
W L W W W
9 16 6 4 6 21:26 -5 17
L W L W D
10 16 5 2 9 22:28 -6 17
L W W D L
11 16 7 5 4 33:25 8 16
W D L D L
12 17 5 5 7 26:24 2 15
L W L D W
13 17 6 3 8 18:22 -4 15
L L L W W
14 16 6 2 8 26:27 -1 13
W L L L L
15 17 2 7 8 24:34 -10 8
L L D D D
16 16 3 6 7 19:22 -3 5
L W D L L
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2
Relegation - League One