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CHINA › SUPER LEAGUE
18.10.2026 11:00
Beijing Workers' Stadium
Referee: Lei Zhang, China
Beijing Guoan
Match Timeline
Qingdao Youth Island
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
21'
F. Abreu ↔ Zhang Xizhe
Beijing Guoan
🟨
48'
Meng Jingchao
Qingdao Youth Island
🔄
62'
Meng Jingchao ↔ Yang Zhanpeng
Qingdao Youth Island
🔄
67'
Wang Gang ↔ Yue Tze-Nam
Beijing Guoan
🔄
67'
Bai Yang ↔ Li Lei
Beijing Guoan
⚽
78'
Zhang Yuning · Assist: Serginho
Beijing Guoan
🔄
82'
Lin Liangming ↔ Deng Jiefu
Beijing Guoan
🟨
90+3'
Cao Yongjing
Beijing Guoan

Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Youth Island Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 63.4%
Odds 1.41
BTTS
Yes
Probability 54.1%
Odds 1.62
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 55.6%
Odds 1.43
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
63.4%
1.41 ▥
BTTS Yes
54.1%
1.62 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
55.6%
1.43 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
79.1%
1.15 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.05 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
8.50 ▥
Probability Distribution
Beijing Guoan Win 63.4%
Draw 9.7%
Qingdao Youth Island Win 26.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Beijing Guoan1.69
Qingdao Youth Island1.15
Recent Form (Last 5)
Beijing Guoan Beijing Guoan
WWDLW
52 GF / 33 GA
Qingdao Youth Island Qingdao Youth Island
WLDWL
32 GF / 39 GA
Key Stats
1.93
Average Goals Scored
1.1
1.22
Average Goals Conceded
1.34
17
BTTS Yes
17
17
Over 2.5
10
5.48
Shots on Goal
3.44

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Beijing Guoan Beijing Guoan 27 matches
Qingdao Youth Island Qingdao Youth Island 29 matches
Beijing Guoan Statistic Qingdao Youth Island
12 Wins 8
10 Draws 15
5 Losses 6
52 Goals For 32
33 Goals Against 39
1.93 Avg Goals Scored 1.1
1.22 Avg Goals Conceded 1.34
17 BTTS Yes 17
23 Over 1.5 23
17 Over 2.5 10
9 Over 3.5 8
10 Clean Sheets 8
2 Failed To Score 8
5.48 Shots On Goal 3.44
15.04 Total Shots 11.11
5.81 Corners 4.22
59.4% Ball Possession 45%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and Beijing Guoan's more proactive style and Qingdao Youth Island's more cautious structure points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Qingdao Youth Island. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Beijing Guoan expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Qingdao Youth Island in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Qingdao Youth Island having the stronger overall control.

Beijing Guoan Analysis

Beijing Guoan arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 2 place with 41 points after 27 matches. Their overall return of 12 wins, 10 draws, and 5 losses with goals at 52:33 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Zhang Yuning (12 goals), Fabio Abreu (10 goals), Sai Erjini'ao (5 goals), with creative support from Zhang Yuning (6 assists), Fabio Abreu (5 assists), Sai Erjini'ao (5 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. At home, they have returned 6 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Qingdao Youth Island Analysis

Qingdao Youth Island come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 4 with 38 points from 26 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 8 wins, 14 draws, and 4 losses, while the 31:32 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Davidson (7 goals), Nélson Luz (5 goals), A. Yakubu (5 goals), with creative support from Nélson Luz (5 assists), Davidson (3 assists), A. Yakubu (3 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 3 wins, 6 draws, and 4 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 7 head-to-head meetings, Beijing Guoan won 4 times, Qingdao Youth Island won 0 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:8 from Beijing Guoan's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 3.57 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (90.3%)
Predicted formations: Beijing Guoan 4-4-2 / Qingdao Youth Island 4-1-4-1
H2H summary: Beijing Guoan wins 4, draws 3, Qingdao Youth Island wins 0

Standings

Super League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 28 15 7 6 51:34 17 52
L L D W L
2 28 14 4 10 45:43 2 46
W W W D W
3 28 13 10 5 53:33 20 44
W W D D D
4 28 14 5 9 52:44 8 41
W D D W L
5 28 12 8 8 47:35 12 39
W W D W W
6 28 11 6 11 56:59 -3 39
D L W L D
7 28 8 14 6 31:37 -6 38
L L D D W
8 28 14 5 9 62:48 14 37
W W W L W
9 28 7 12 9 29:34 -5 33
D D L D L
10 28 11 8 9 38:32 6 31
W W W W D
11 28 10 6 12 47:52 -5 31
L L W L W
12 28 8 5 15 37:50 -13 29
L D D L D
13 28 8 5 15 39:48 -9 29
W D L L L
14 28 8 10 10 35:38 -3 28
L D D D D
15 28 5 12 11 41:50 -9 22
L D L D D
16 28 6 3 19 34:60 -26 14
L L L L L
AFC Champions League Elite League Stage
AFC Champions League 2 Group Stage
Relegation