GERMANY BUNDESLIGA
--.--.---- --:--
BayArena
Referee: Tobias Stieler, Germany
Bayer Leverkusen
Match Timeline
Hamburger SV
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
24'
Jordan Torunarigha
Hamburger SV
61'
F. Vieira · Assist: N. Capaldo
Hamburger SV
🔄
62'
M. Tillman ↔ J. Hofmann
Bayer Leverkusen
🔄
62'
R. Andrich ↔ E. Ben Seghir
Bayer Leverkusen
🔄
62'
M. Culbreath ↔ Arthur
Bayer Leverkusen
🔄
63'
R. Philippe ↔ M. Muheim
Hamburger SV
🟨
66'
Arthur
Bayer Leverkusen
🔄
77'
F. Vieira ↔ F. Balde
Hamburger SV
🔄
77'
O. Stange ↔ Y. Poulsen
Hamburger SV
🔄
77'
W. Omari ↔ S. Nandja
Hamburger SV
🟨
78'
Nicolás Capaldo
Hamburger SV
78'
J. Quansah · Assist: A. Garcia
Bayer Leverkusen
🔄
84'
A. Garcia ↔ Lucas
Bayer Leverkusen
🔄
89'
J. Torunarigha ↔ W. Mikelbrencis
Hamburger SV

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 64.7%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 90.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 93.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
64.7%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
90.5%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
93.1%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Bayer Leverkusen Win 64.7%
Draw 11.3%
Hamburger SV Win 24.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Bayer Leverkusen1.75
Hamburger SV1.27
Recent Form (Last 5)
Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen
WWDLW
83 GF / 63 GA
Hamburger SV Hamburger SV
WLDWL
39 GF / 53 GA
Key Stats
1.84
Average Goals Scored
1.18
1.4
Average Goals Conceded
1.61
26
BTTS Yes
21
24
Over 2.5
19
4.76
Shots on Goal
4.52

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 45 matches
Hamburger SV Hamburger SV 33 matches
Bayer Leverkusen Statistic Hamburger SV
21 Wins 9
12 Draws 10
12 Losses 14
83 Goals For 39
63 Goals Against 53
1.84 Avg Goals Scored 1.18
1.4 Avg Goals Conceded 1.61
26 BTTS Yes 21
38 Over 1.5 26
24 Over 2.5 19
17 Over 3.5 11
13 Clean Sheets 6
7 Failed To Score 10
4.76 Shots On Goal 4.52
13.82 Total Shots 12.09
5.29 Corners 3.7
57.3% Ball Possession 45.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Bayer Leverkusen's more proactive style and Hamburger SV's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Bayer Leverkusen arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 6 with 58 points compared to Hamburger SV in 11 on 37, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Bayer Leverkusen expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Hamburger SV in 3-4-1-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Hamburger SV having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Hamburger SV. Hamburger SV arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly.

Bayer Leverkusen Analysis

Bayer Leverkusen sit 6 with 58 points after 33 league matches. The record of 17 wins, 7 draws, and 9 defeats, together with a 67:46 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through P. Schick (16 goals), A. Grimaldo (8 goals), M. Tillman (6 goals), with creative support from A. Grimaldo (8 assists), A. Garcia (7 assists), E. Poku (5 assists), while at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 9 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses, a split that suggests a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Hamburger SV Analysis

With 37 points from 33 games and a place of 11, Hamburger SV still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 9 wins, 10 draws, and 14 losses, together with goals at 39:53, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through F. Vieira (6 goals), L. Vuskovic (6 goals), A. S. Lokonga (5 goals), with creative support from F. Vieira (5 assists), Miro Muheim (4 assists), W. Mikelbrencis (4 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, the split record of 3 wins, 4 draws, and 9 losses points to a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Bayer Leverkusen won 9 times, Hamburger SV won 3 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 26:11 from Bayer Leverkusen's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.47 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (88.7%)
Predicted formations: Bayer Leverkusen 3-4-2-1 / Hamburger SV 3-4-1-2
Missing players: Bayer Leverkusen 3, Hamburger SV 2
H2H summary: Bayer Leverkusen wins 9, draws 3, Hamburger SV wins 3
Stats
Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen
Hamburger SV Hamburger SV
Shots on Goal
9
Shots on Goal
6
Shots off Goal
12
Shots off Goal
8
Blocked Shots
5
Blocked Shots
5
8 Corner Kicks 3
8 Fouls 11
3 Offsides 0
60% Ball Possession 40%
26 Total Shots 19
9 Shots on Goal 6
12 Shots off Goal 8
5 Blocked Shots 5
19 Shots insidebox 11
7 Shots outsidebox 8
5 Goalkeeper Saves 7
585 Total passes 404
527 Passes accurate 328
3.27 expected_goals 1.79
🟨 1 Yellow Cards 2 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Bayer Leverkusen
Formation
Hamburger SV
M. Flekken
M. Flekken
J. Quansah
J. Quansah
R. Andrich
R. Andrich
E. Tapsoba
E. Tapsoba
M. Culbreath
M. Culbreath
A. Garcia
🎯
A. Garcia
E. Palacios
E. Palacios
A. Grimaldo
A. Grimaldo
M. Tillman
M. Tillman
I. Maza
I. Maza
P. Schick
P. Schick
S. Tangvik
S. Tangvik
W. Omari
W. Omari
L. Vuskovic
L. Vuskovic
J. Torunarigha
J. Torunarigha
N. Capaldo
🎯
N. Capaldo
N. Remberg
N. Remberg
A. S. Lokonga
A. S. Lokonga
A. Gronbaek
A. Gronbaek
F. Vieira
F. Vieira
R. Philippe
R. Philippe
O. Stange
O. Stange
Bayer Leverkusen 3-4-2-1
Starting XI
1
M. Flekken
G
4
J. Quansah
⚽ 78'
D
8
R. Andrich
↓ 62'
D
12
E. Tapsoba
D
42
M. Culbreath
↓ 62'
M
24
A. Garcia
🎯 78' ↓ 84'
M
25
E. Palacios
M
20
A. Grimaldo
M
10
M. Tillman
↓ 62'
F
30
I. Maza
F
14
P. Schick
F
Substitutes
28
J. Blaswich
G
21
Lucas
↑ 84'
D
6
E. Fernandez
M
5
L. Bade
D
15
T. Oermann
D
7
J. Hofmann
↑ 62'
M
19
E. Poku
F
17
E. Ben Seghir
↑ 62'
F
13
Arthur
↑ 62' 🟨 66'
D
Hamburger SV 3-4-2-1
Starting XI
12
S. Tangvik
G
17
W. Omari
↓ 77'
D
44
L. Vuskovic
D
25
J. Torunarigha
↓ 89' 🟨 24'
D
24
N. Capaldo
🎯 61' 🟨 78'
M
21
N. Remberg
M
6
A. S. Lokonga
M
23
A. Gronbaek
M
20
F. Vieira
⚽ 61' ↓ 77'
F
14
R. Philippe
↓ 63'
F
49
O. Stange
↓ 77'
F
Substitutes
1
D. Heuer Fernandes
G
18
B. Jatta
M
2
W. Mikelbrencis
↑ 89'
D
45
F. Balde
↑ 77'
F
15
Y. Poulsen
↑ 77'
F
28
M. Muheim
↑ 63'
D
16
G. Gocholeishvili
D
8
D. Elfadli
M
43
S. Nandja
↑ 77'
D
Last matches: Bayer Leverkusen
09.05.26
Bun
Bayer Leverkusen
VfB Stuttgart
1
3
L
02.05.26
Bun
Bayer Leverkusen
RB Leipzig
4
1
W
25.04.26
Bun
Bayer Leverkusen
1. FC Köln
2
1
W
18.04.26
Bun
Bayer Leverkusen
FC Augsburg
1
2
L
11.04.26
Bun
Bayer Leverkusen
Borussia Dortmund
1
0
W
04.04.26
Bun
Bayer Leverkusen
VfL Wolfsburg
6
3
W
21.03.26
Bun
Bayer Leverkusen
1. FC Heidenheim
3
3
D
17.03.26
UEF
Bayer Leverkusen
Arsenal
0
2
L
14.03.26
Bun
Bayer Leverkusen
Bayern München
1
1
D
11.03.26
UEF
Bayer Leverkusen
Arsenal
1
1
D
07.03.26
Bun
Bayer Leverkusen
SC Freiburg
3
3
D
04.03.26
Bun
Bayer Leverkusen
Hamburger SV
1
0
W
28.02.26
Bun
Bayer Leverkusen
FSV Mainz 05
1
1
D
24.02.26
UEF
Bayer Leverkusen
Olympiakos Piraeus
0
0
D
21.02.26
Bun
Bayer Leverkusen
Union Berlin
0
1
L
18.02.26
UEF
Bayer Leverkusen
Olympiakos Piraeus
2
0
W
14.02.26
Bun
Bayer Leverkusen
FC St. Pauli
4
0
W
07.02.26
Bun
Bayer Leverkusen
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1
1
D
31.01.26
Bun
Bayer Leverkusen
Eintracht Frankfurt
3
1
W
28.01.26
UEF
Bayer Leverkusen
Villarreal
3
0
W
Last matches: Hamburger SV
10.05.26
Bun
Hamburger SV
SC Freiburg
3
2
W
02.05.26
Bun
Hamburger SV
Eintracht Frankfurt
2
1
W
25.04.26
Bun
Hamburger SV
1899 Hoffenheim
1
2
L
18.04.26
Bun
Hamburger SV
Werder Bremen
1
3
L
12.04.26
Bun
Hamburger SV
VfB Stuttgart
0
4
L
04.04.26
Bun
Hamburger SV
FC Augsburg
1
1
D
21.03.26
Bun
Hamburger SV
Borussia Dortmund
2
3
L
14.03.26
Bun
Hamburger SV
1. FC Köln
1
1
D
07.03.26
Bun
Hamburger SV
VfL Wolfsburg
2
1
W
04.03.26
Bun
Hamburger SV
Bayer Leverkusen
0
1
L
01.03.26
Bun
Hamburger SV
RB Leipzig
1
2
L
20.02.26
Bun
Hamburger SV
FSV Mainz 05
1
1
D
14.02.26
Bun
Hamburger SV
Union Berlin
3
2
W
07.02.26
Bun
Hamburger SV
1. FC Heidenheim
2
0
W
31.01.26
Bun
Hamburger SV
Bayern München
2
2
D
23.01.26
Bun
Hamburger SV
FC St. Pauli
0
0
D
17.01.26
Bun
Hamburger SV
Borussia Mönchengladbach
0
0
D
10.01.26
Bun
Hamburger SV
SC Freiburg
1
2
L
20.12.25
Bun
Hamburger SV
Eintracht Frankfurt
1
1
D
13.12.25
Bun
Hamburger SV
1899 Hoffenheim
1
4
L
H2H: Bayer Leverkusen vs Hamburger SV
16.05.26
H2H
Bayer Leverkusen
Hamburger SV
1
1
D
04.03.26
H2H
Hamburger SV
Bayer Leverkusen
0
1
W
17.02.18
H2H
Hamburger SV
Bayer Leverkusen
1
2
W
24.09.17
H2H
Bayer Leverkusen
Hamburger SV
3
0
W
03.02.17
H2H
Hamburger SV
Bayer Leverkusen
1
0
L
10.09.16
H2H
Bayer Leverkusen
Hamburger SV
3
1
W
13.03.16
H2H
Bayer Leverkusen
Hamburger SV
1
0
W
17.10.15
H2H
Hamburger SV
Bayer Leverkusen
0
0
D
04.04.15
H2H
Bayer Leverkusen
Hamburger SV
4
0
W
01.11.14
H2H
Hamburger SV
Bayer Leverkusen
1
0
L
04.04.14
H2H
Hamburger SV
Bayer Leverkusen
2
1
L
09.11.13
H2H
Bayer Leverkusen
Hamburger SV
5
3
W
18.05.13
H2H
Hamburger SV
Bayer Leverkusen
0
1
W
15.12.12
H2H
Bayer Leverkusen
Hamburger SV
3
0
W
08.04.12
H2H
Hamburger SV
Bayer Leverkusen
1
1
D
Last matches: Bayer Leverkusen
02.05.26
Bun
Bayer Leverkusen
RB Leipzig
4
1
W
18.04.26
Bun
Bayer Leverkusen
FC Augsburg
1
2
L
04.04.26
Bun
Bayer Leverkusen
VfL Wolfsburg
6
3
W
14.03.26
Bun
Bayer Leverkusen
Bayern München
1
1
D
11.03.26
UEF
Bayer Leverkusen
Arsenal
1
1
D
28.02.26
Bun
Bayer Leverkusen
FSV Mainz 05
1
1
D
24.02.26
UEF
Bayer Leverkusen
Olympiakos Piraeus
0
0
D
14.02.26
Bun
Bayer Leverkusen
FC St. Pauli
4
0
W
28.01.26
UEF
Bayer Leverkusen
Villarreal
3
0
W
24.01.26
Bun
Bayer Leverkusen
Werder Bremen
1
0
W
10.01.26
Bun
Bayer Leverkusen
VfB Stuttgart
1
4
L
13.12.25
Bun
Bayer Leverkusen
1. FC Köln
2
0
W
10.12.25
UEF
Bayer Leverkusen
Newcastle
2
2
D
29.11.25
Bun
Bayer Leverkusen
Borussia Dortmund
1
2
L
08.11.25
Bun
Bayer Leverkusen
1. FC Heidenheim
6
0
W
26.10.25
Bun
Bayer Leverkusen
SC Freiburg
2
0
W
21.10.25
UEF
Bayer Leverkusen
Paris Saint Germain
2
7
L
04.10.25
Bun
Bayer Leverkusen
Union Berlin
2
0
W
01.10.25
UEF
Bayer Leverkusen
PSV Eindhoven
1
1
D
21.09.25
Bun
Bayer Leverkusen
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1
1
D
H2H at home: Bayer Leverkusen
16.05.26
H2H
Bayer Leverkusen
Hamburger SV
1
1
D
24.09.17
H2H
Bayer Leverkusen
Hamburger SV
3
0
W
10.09.16
H2H
Bayer Leverkusen
Hamburger SV
3
1
W
13.03.16
H2H
Bayer Leverkusen
Hamburger SV
1
0
W
04.04.15
H2H
Bayer Leverkusen
Hamburger SV
4
0
W
09.11.13
H2H
Bayer Leverkusen
Hamburger SV
5
3
W
15.12.12
H2H
Bayer Leverkusen
Hamburger SV
3
0
W
Last matches: Hamburger SV
02.05.26
Bun
Hamburger SV
Eintracht Frankfurt
2
1
W
18.04.26
Bun
Hamburger SV
Werder Bremen
1
3
L
12.04.26
Bun
Hamburger SV
VfB Stuttgart
0
4
L
21.03.26
Bun
Hamburger SV
Borussia Dortmund
2
3
L
07.03.26
Bun
Hamburger SV
VfL Wolfsburg
2
1
W
20.02.26
Bun
Hamburger SV
FSV Mainz 05
1
1
D
07.02.26
Bun
Hamburger SV
1. FC Heidenheim
2
0
W
23.01.26
Bun
Hamburger SV
FC St. Pauli
0
0
D
10.01.26
Bun
Hamburger SV
SC Freiburg
1
2
L
13.12.25
Bun
Hamburger SV
1899 Hoffenheim
1
4
L
22.11.25
Bun
Hamburger SV
FC Augsburg
0
1
L
02.11.25
Bun
Hamburger SV
1. FC Köln
1
4
L
18.10.25
Bun
Hamburger SV
RB Leipzig
1
2
L
28.09.25
Bun
Hamburger SV
Union Berlin
0
0
D
13.09.25
Bun
Hamburger SV
Bayern München
0
5
L
24.08.25
Bun
Hamburger SV
Borussia Mönchengladbach
0
0
D
18.05.25
2.
Hamburger SV
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
2
3
L
03.05.25
2.
Hamburger SV
SV Darmstadt 98
4
0
W
19.04.25
2.
Hamburger SV
FC Schalke 04
2
2
D
05.04.25
2.
Hamburger SV
1. FC Nürnberg
3
0
W
H2H away: Hamburger SV
16.05.26
H2H
Bayer Leverkusen
Hamburger SV
1
1
D
24.09.17
H2H
Bayer Leverkusen
Hamburger SV
3
0
L
10.09.16
H2H
Bayer Leverkusen
Hamburger SV
3
1
L
13.03.16
H2H
Bayer Leverkusen
Hamburger SV
1
0
L
04.04.15
H2H
Bayer Leverkusen
Hamburger SV
4
0
L
09.11.13
H2H
Bayer Leverkusen
Hamburger SV
5
3
L
15.12.12
H2H
Bayer Leverkusen
Hamburger SV
3
0
L

Standings

Bundesliga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 28 5 1 122:36 86 89
W W D W W
2 34 22 7 5 70:34 36 73
W W L W L
3 34 20 5 9 66:47 19 65
L W L W W
4 34 18 8 8 71:49 22 62
D W D D L
5 34 18 7 9 65:52 13 61
L W D W W
6 34 17 8 9 68:47 21 59
D L W W L
7 34 13 8 13 51:57 -6 47
W L D L W
8 34 11 11 12 61:65 -4 44
D L L D L
9 34 12 7 15 45:61 -16 43
L W W D W
10 34 10 10 14 44:53 -9 40
W L W L D
11 34 10 9 15 44:58 -14 39
W W D L L
12 34 9 11 14 42:53 -11 38
W L W D D
13 34 9 11 14 40:54 -14 38
D W W L L
14 34 7 11 16 49:63 -14 32
L L D L D
15 34 8 8 18 37:60 -23 32
L L L D W
16 34 7 8 19 45:69 -24 29
L D W L D
17 34 6 8 20 41:72 -31 26
L W D W L
18 34 6 8 20 29:60 -31 26
L L L L D
Champions League
UEFA Europa League
Conference League Qualification
Relegation Playoffs
Relegation

Missing Players

Bayer Leverkusen 3 missing
-
M. Terrier
Missing Fixture Hamstring Injury
OUT
-
N. Tella
Missing Fixture Muscle Injury
OUT
-
C. Kofane
Questionable Injury
OUT
Hamburger SV 2 missing
-
A. Rossing-Lelesiit
Missing Fixture Ankle Injury
OUT
-
R. Glatzel
Questionable Calf Injury
OUT