BELARUS PREMIER LEAGUE
13.09.2026 15:00
Borisov Arena
Bate Borisov
Match Timeline
Naftan
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
13'
N. Neskoromnyi
Bate Borisov
38'
E. Puerto · Assist: Y. Kovalev
Bate Borisov
43'
Vladislav Varaksa
Bate Borisov
🟨
43'
Kirill Adamovich
Naftan
🔄
46'
P. Dubovskiy ↔ M. Sakuta
Bate Borisov
🔄
46'
E. Puerto ↔ V. Yatskevich
Bate Borisov
59'
M. Aymanov
Naftan
🟨
60'
Danila Sokol
Bate Borisov
63'
A. Stefanishin · Assist: I. Pranovich
Naftan
🔄
66'
V. Angban ↔ H. Moussakhanian
Bate Borisov
🔄
71'
V. Varaksa ↔ M. Titov
Bate Borisov
🟨
74'
Egor Kress
Bate Borisov
🔄
75'
V. Yakovlev ↔ T. Galimzyanov
Naftan
🔄
82'
I. Pranovich ↔ A. Savitskiy
Naftan
🔄
84'
A. Lebedev ↔ V. Krolik
Naftan
🔄
84'
M. Aymanov ↔ A. Voskoboynikov
Naftan
🟨
90+2'
Andrey Stefanishin
Naftan
🟨
90+1'
Vasiliy Chernyavskiy
Naftan

Bate Borisov vs Naftan Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 79%
Odds 1.43
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.2%
Odds 1.97
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds 1.73
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
79%
1.43
BTTS Yes
58.2%
1.97
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
1.73
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
83.6%
1.26
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.00
Correct Score 2-1
-
7.50
Probability Distribution
Bate Borisov Win 79%
Draw 13.5%
Naftan Win 7.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Bate Borisov1.29
Naftan1.04
Recent Form (Last 5)
Bate Borisov Bate Borisov
WWDLW
20 GF / 36 GA
Naftan Naftan
WLDWL
27 GF / 63 GA
Key Stats
0.65
Average Goals Scored
0.96
1.16
Average Goals Conceded
2.25
12
BTTS Yes
14
9
Over 2.5
16
0.83
Shots on Goal
1.48

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Bate Borisov Bate Borisov 31 matches
Naftan Naftan 28 matches
Bate Borisov Statistic Naftan
4 Wins 4
14 Draws 6
13 Losses 18
20 Goals For 27
36 Goals Against 63
0.65 Avg Goals Scored 0.96
1.16 Avg Goals Conceded 2.25
12 BTTS Yes 14
18 Over 1.5 23
9 Over 2.5 16
3 Over 3.5 11
8 Clean Sheets 5
17 Failed To Score 11
0.83 Shots On Goal 1.48
0.61 Total Shots 0.48
1.09 Corners 1.81
16.7% Ball Possession 18%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Bate Borisov expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Naftan in 3-5-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Naftan having the stronger overall control. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Naftan. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Naftan arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Bate Borisov Analysis

Bate Borisov sit 13 with 17 points after 19 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 3 wins, 8 draws, and 8 losses, while the 14:22 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on their main attacking players, and defensively they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 3 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Naftan Analysis

Naftan approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 16 with 10 points from 20 matches. Their record of 2 wins, 4 draws, and 14 losses, together with goals at 17:49, reflects poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Much of their threat comes through their main attacking players, while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have managed 0 wins, 1 draws, and 9 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, Bate Borisov won 3 times, Naftan won 0 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:5 from Bate Borisov's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 4 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (92.5%)
Predicted formations: Bate Borisov 4-2-3-1 / Naftan 3-5-2
H2H summary: Bate Borisov wins 3, draws 2, Naftan wins 0

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 22 13 6 3 37:18 19 45
L W D W D
2 21 12 8 1 42:17 25 44
W D D D W
3 21 13 4 4 37:16 21 43
W L D W L
4 23 12 4 7 38:23 15 40
W W W L D
5 23 11 6 6 33:18 15 39
W L W W D
6 22 11 4 7 26:20 6 37
W W D W W
7 23 10 6 7 28:21 7 36
W D L W W
8 23 10 4 9 30:28 2 34
L W W L L
9 22 7 6 9 28:29 -1 27
L L L W D
10 22 6 7 9 23:26 -3 25
L L W L D
11 23 6 7 10 24:38 -14 25
L D W W D
12 23 5 8 10 24:41 -17 23
L D D L L
13 22 5 6 11 22:36 -14 21
W D D D L
14 22 3 9 10 16:27 -11 18
L D L L W
15 23 2 10 11 20:36 -16 16
L D L D D
16 23 3 5 15 20:54 -34 14
W D L L L
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Vysshaya Liga (Relegation)
Relegation - Pershaya Liga