FRANCE LIGUE 3
17.09.2026 18:45
Stade Armand Cesari

Bastia vs Cannes Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 73.4%
Odds 2.62
BTTS
No
Probability 50.8%
Odds 1.73
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 51.1%
Odds 1.73
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
73.4%
2.62
BTTS No
50.8%
1.73
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
51.1%
1.73
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
6.00
Correct Score 0-1
-
8.00
Probability Distribution
Bastia Win 20.1%
Draw 6.5%
Cannes Win 73.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Bastia1.21
Cannes1.7
Recent Form (Last 5)
Bastia Bastia
WWDLW
9 GF / 14 GA
Cannes Cannes
WLDWL
15 GF / 12 GA
Key Stats
1.13
Average Goals Scored
1.67
1.75
Average Goals Conceded
1.33
3
BTTS Yes
5
3
Over 2.5
4
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Bastia Bastia 8 matches
Cannes Cannes 9 matches
Bastia Statistic Cannes
3 Wins 3
1 Draws 5
4 Losses 1
9 Goals For 15
14 Goals Against 12
1.13 Avg Goals Scored 1.67
1.75 Avg Goals Conceded 1.33
3 BTTS Yes 5
5 Over 1.5 7
3 Over 2.5 4
2 Over 3.5 3
3 Clean Sheets 4
2 Failed To Score 2
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Cannes's more proactive style and Bastia's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Cannes. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Cannes carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 5 with 9 points while Bastia sit 11 on 6, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Bastia have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Cannes having the stronger overall control.

Bastia Analysis

Bastia approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 11 with 6 points from 5 matches. Across the season they have posted 2 wins, 0 draws, and 3 defeats, and the 4:8 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on their main attacking players, while at the back they have been very solid. At home, the split record of 0 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Cannes Analysis

Placed 5 with 9 points from 5 outings, Cannes continue to operate from a strong competitive position. The record of 2 wins, 3 draws, and 0 defeats, together with a 7:2 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through their main attacking players, while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (93.5%)

Standings

National
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 6 4 2 0 12:2 10 14
W D W W W
2 6 4 0 2 12:5 7 12
W W L W L
3 6 3 3 0 7:4 3 12
D D W D W
4 6 3 2 1 12:10 2 11
L D D W W
5 6 2 4 0 7:2 5 10
D W W D D
6 6 2 3 1 7:6 1 9
W D D W D
7 6 3 0 3 10:11 -1 9
W L L W W
8 6 3 0 3 5:8 -3 9
W L W L W
9 6 2 2 2 4:6 -2 8
L D D W L
10 6 2 2 2 6:8 -2 8
W D W L D
11 6 2 2 2 6:2 4 8
D W W L L
12 6 2 2 2 10:7 3 8
W W L L D
13 6 2 1 3 5:6 -1 7
L D L W L
14 6 2 1 3 6:8 -2 7
L D L W L
15 6 1 2 3 5:9 -4 5
L D D L W
16 6 1 1 4 3:7 -4 4
L D W L L
17 6 1 1 4 5:13 -8 4
D L L L W
18 6 1 0 5 3:11 -8 3
L L L L L
Promotion - Ligue 2
Promotion - Ligue 2 (Promotion)
Relegation