TURKEY SüPER LIG
24.04.2026 17:00
Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium
Referee: Y. Arslan
Başakşehir
Match Timeline
Kasımpaşa
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
5'
E. Shomurodov · Assist: Y. Sari
Başakşehir
VAR
7'
Eldor Shomurodov
Başakşehir
22'
B. Yildirim
Başakşehir
🟨
30'
Andri Baldursson
Kasımpaşa
🟨
34'
Léo Duarte
Başakşehir
🟨
35'
Omer Ali Sahiner
Başakşehir
VAR
43'
Rodrigo Becão
Kasımpaşa
🟥
44'
Rodrigo Becão
Kasımpaşa
🔄
46'
O. Sahiner ↔ O. Bulut
Başakşehir
🔄
46'
Cafu ↔ N. Opoku
Kasımpaşa
🔄
60'
B. Yildirim ↔ D. Selke
Başakşehir
🔄
60'
Y. Sari ↔ I. Brnic
Başakşehir
🔄
69'
L. Duarte ↔ H. Gureler
Başakşehir
🔄
80'
K. Demirbay ↔ E. Aydin
Kasımpaşa
🔄
80'
A. Benedyczak ↔ K. Kanatsizkus
Kasımpaşa
81'
D. Selke · Assist: I. Brnic
Başakşehir
🟨
83'
Olivier Kemen
Başakşehir
🔄
83'
U. Gunes ↔ O. Ergun
Başakşehir
🔄
86'
I. C. Kahveci ↔ A. Kol
Kasımpaşa
87'
E. Shomurodov · Assist: I. Brnic
Başakşehir

Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 80.6%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 59.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 73.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
80.6%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
59.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
73.4%
-
Probability Distribution
Başakşehir Win 80.6%
Draw 5.3%
Kasımpaşa Win 14.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Başakşehir1.53
Kasımpaşa1.01
Recent Form (Last 5)
Başakşehir Başakşehir
WWDLW
59 GF / 38 GA
Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa
WLDWL
29 GF / 41 GA
Key Stats
1.64
Average Goals Scored
0.97
1.06
Average Goals Conceded
1.37
21
BTTS Yes
16
21
Over 2.5
13
4.42
Shots on Goal
2.67

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Başakşehir Başakşehir 36 matches
Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa 30 matches
Başakşehir Statistic Kasımpaşa
16 Wins 7
10 Draws 10
10 Losses 13
59 Goals For 29
38 Goals Against 41
1.64 Avg Goals Scored 0.97
1.06 Avg Goals Conceded 1.37
21 BTTS Yes 16
29 Over 1.5 21
21 Over 2.5 13
9 Over 3.5 5
13 Clean Sheets 8
6 Failed To Score 10
4.42 Shots On Goal 2.67
12.64 Total Shots 9.73
4.75 Corners 4.3
53.7% Ball Possession 45%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Başakşehir's more proactive style and Kasımpaşa's more cautious structure. Both teams have notable availability concerns, so squad depth and in-game adjustments could matter more than usual. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Kasımpaşa. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Başakşehir arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 5 with 48 points compared to Kasımpaşa in 13 on 31, which underlines the gap in season consistency.

Başakşehir Analysis

Başakşehir arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 5 place with 48 points after 30 matches. Their overall return of 13 wins, 9 draws, and 8 losses with goals at 47:30 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by E. Shomurodov (18 goals), D. Selke (8 goals), B. Yildirim (6 goals), with creative support from Miguel Crespo (5 assists), Yusuf Sarı (5 assists), E. Shomurodov (4 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. At home, their split return of 6 wins, 6 draws, and 3 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football. They also have disciplinary concerns to manage, with A. Fayzullaev, J. Opoku unavailable.

Kasımpaşa Analysis

Kasımpaşa are currently 13 in the standings with 31 points from 30 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 7 wins, 10 draws, and 13 losses, while the 28:41 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on A. Benedyczak (6 goals), P. Gueye (5 goals), Cláudio Winck (3 goals), with creative support from M. Ben Ouanes (5 assists), İrfan Can Kahveci (3 assists), F. Diabate (2 assists), and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, the record of 3 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses points toward a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with H. Hajradinovic, J. Allevinah, K. Corekci unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Başakşehir won 11 times, Kasımpaşa won 1 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 40:18 from Başakşehir's perspective. 14 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 11 matches, with an average of 3.87 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.7%)
Predicted formations: Başakşehir 4-2-3-1 / Kasımpaşa 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Başakşehir 2, Kasımpaşa 4
H2H summary: Başakşehir wins 11, draws 3, Kasımpaşa wins 1

Standings

Super Lig
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 24 5 5 77:30 47 77
L W L W W
2 34 21 11 2 77:37 40 74
D W W L D
3 34 20 9 5 61:39 22 69
L W D L D
4 34 17 9 8 59:40 19 60
D L W D L
5 34 16 9 9 58:35 23 57
W W L W D
6 34 14 13 7 42:32 10 55
L W D W D
7 34 13 12 9 46:45 1 51
W L W W W
8 34 10 11 13 46:52 -6 41
D L W L D
9 34 10 10 14 43:50 -7 40
L L L W W
10 34 9 10 15 26:38 -12 37
L L D L D
11 34 7 16 11 41:41 0 37
L W D L L
12 34 9 10 15 43:58 -15 37
L L L L W
13 34 8 11 15 33:49 -16 35
W L D L W
14 34 9 7 18 36:47 -11 34
W W L W L
15 34 8 9 17 33:48 -15 33
D W D W W
16 34 8 8 18 33:55 -22 32
W L D L L
17 34 6 12 16 27:62 -35 30
W L D W L
18 34 8 6 20 31:54 -23 30
W W W D L
Champions League
Champions League Qualification
UEFA Europa League Qualification
Conference League Qualification
Relegation